Conceptualising Party-State Governance and Rule in Laos

ABSTRACT

This article develops a framework for conceptualising authoritarian governance and rule in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic. After introducing the national and academic context, which go a significant way towards understanding the paucity of comparative political work on Laos, we propose an approach to studying post-socialist authoritarian and single-party rule that highlights the key political-institutional, cultural-historical and spatial-environmental sources of party-state power and authority. In adopting this approach, we seek to redirect attention to the centralising structures of rule under the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party, illustrating how authoritarian institutions of the “party-state” operate in and through multiple scales, from the central to the local level. At a time when the country is garnering greater attention than at any time since the Vietnam War, we argue that this examination of critical transitions in Laos under conditions of resource-intensive development, intensifying regional and global integration, and durable one-party authoritarian rule, establishes a framework for future research on the party-state system in Laos, and for understanding and contextualising the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party regime in regional comparative perspective.     

Exit,voice and loyalty: Analytic and empirical developments

Abstract. This paper seeks to reconstruct and revitalize the famous Hirschman framework by providing a comprehensive review of the current use of 'exit, voice and loyalty'. We begin by critically examining Hirchman's original account, and then look at the way his argument has been extended in different fields both conceptually and empirically. We suggest that while advances have been made, the results so far are somewhat disappointing given the perceptiveness of the original insight. We believe this is because his apparently simple schema is more complex than it first appears, and different aspects of exit, of voice, and of empirical foundations of loyalty need to be analytically distinguished in order to produce testable empirical hypotheses about their relationships.     

Competing Risks, Persistence, and Desistance in Analyzing Recidivism

A statistical procedure is developed to analyze recidivism in samples whichare subject to the presence of desisters and to multiple modes ofreconviction. This allows for a more accurate study of individuals'transition and hazard in the type and timing of offenses following aspecific type of conviction. The use of a nonparametric approach forinvestigating failure in the presence of other acting causes is shown;initial estimators of the probabilities of reconviction for different typesof offenses are obtained, and the method can be used both to display thedata and to choose an appropriate parametric family for the survivaltimes. An exponential mixture model for competing risks is presented insuch a way that it allows us to adjust for concomitant variables and toassess their effects on the probabilities both of reconviction forpredetermined types of offenses and desistance and of the hazards ofreconviction; a method for assessing calibration of predicted survivalprobabilities is suggested. A 21-year follow-up of persons convicted ofindecent assault on a female in 1973 illustrates the methods; we find ahigh probability of sexual reconviction for individuals with previoussexual convictions and evidence of diversity and a raised hazard ofreconviction for young chronic offenders.     

Responses to Financial Crises: An Evolutionary Perspective

As the world currently faces the ever-deepening sub-prime crisis, we are reminded that the process of globalisation can cause significant disruptions in global markets and political systems. This article focuses on the evolution of financial crisis responses to gain a better understanding of the dynamics affecting current responses. By using a focused comparison of case studies it argues that the development of crisis response and the dominance of the current multilateral actors is a result of an evolutionary process. This process privileges learning and innovation within a complex political economic system. The crises of each era, born of many of the same problems, generate a variety of responding actors, a few of which are adopted. These actors help to address the immediate problems and even work well for a while. Eventually, they are overwhelmed by the tendency of financial interactions to grow. Another set of crises generates another round of actors and mechanisms. As time goes on, crisis response requires more formal institutions that can deal with more complex systems. The article concludes that response actors are becoming more public, multilateral and global in scope. Understanding this pattern of response should help to shed light on the potential for reform of the financial architecture and help to explain the dominance of multilateralism as a crisis response.     

Sex,gender, and promotion in executive office: Cabinet careers in the world of Westminster

This article provides the first analysis of gendered promotion issues for cabinet ministers using most-similar systems design for three “Westminster-style” governments: Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. Using individual-level data and controlling for biographical, institutional, and country effects we find, in common with earlier literature, that women are more likely to be given less prestigious cabinet posts and be assigned to “feminine” portfolio. Using both sequence and event history analysis, we see the careers of men and women starkly diverge. We find that women are less likely to be promoted than men but find no relationship between prestigious portfolio and promotion. However, feminine portfolio assignments decrease the promotion prospects for women yet increase them for men.     

Application of Enhanced Point Estimators to a Sample of In Vivo CT‐derived Facial Soft Tissue Thicknesses

Facial approximations based on facial soft tissue depth measurement tables often utilize the arithmetic mean as a central tendency estimator. Stephan et al. (J Forensic Sci 2013;58:1439) suggest that the shorth and 75‐shormax statistics are better suited to describe the central tendency of non‐normal soft tissue depth data, while also accommodating normal distributions. The shorth, 75‐shormax, arithmetic mean, and other central tendency estimators were evaluated using a CT ‐derived facial soft tissue depth dataset. Differences between arithmetic mean and shorth mean for the tissue depths examined ranged from 0 mm to +2.3 mm (average 0.6 mm). Differences between the arithmetic mean plus one standard deviation (to approximate the same data points covered by the 75‐shormax) and 75‐shormax values ranged from ?0.8 mm to +0.7 mm (average 0.2 mm). The results of this research suggest that few practical differences exist across the central tendency point estimators for the evaluated soft tissue depth dataset.     

Marine bacterial succession as a potential indicator of postmortem submersion interval

The process of decomposition of bodies in the marine environment is poorly understood and almost nothing is currently known about the microorganisms involved. This study aimed to investigate the microbes involved in decomposition in the sea and to evaluate the potential use of marine bacterial succession for postmortem submersion interval (PMSI) estimation, for which there is currently no reliable method. Partial pig remains were completely submerged during autumn and winter and were regularly sampled to document marine bacterial colonisation and the changes in community composition over time. Five stages of decomposition were recognised, some of which exhibited characters specific for partial carrion. Marine bacteria rapidly colonised the submerged remains in a successional manner. Seasonal differences were observed for the rate of decomposition and also for several groups of colonising bacteria. Marine bacteria specific for particular PMSIs were identified. This study provides an insight into the involvement of saprophytic marine bacteria in the decomposition of mammalian remains in the sea and is the first to explore the use of marine bacterial colonisation and succession as a novel tool for PMSI estimation. We propose that with further study, marine bacterial succession will prove useful for determination of the length of time a body may have been immersed in a marine environment.