中国传播学的兴起、发展与趋势

“中国传播学”,即在中国生长、发展的传播学,起步于20世纪50年代中期,发展于20世纪80-90年代,经历了1978-1985、1986-1991、1992年至今三个发展阶段。其研究的主要路径包括两种:一种是以传统的视角展开的本土化研究;另一种则是借鉴世界前沿的传播学理论和方法,努力摸索本土传播学研究的特色,可谓“拿来主义”的取向,尽管曾受到非议和误解,但“拿来主义”的研究取向毕竟越来越明晰,特色日渐显现。展望中国传播学科的未来,应明确它的定位;看到其发展的良好前景和总体趋势;切记在纷繁、热闹的表象之下,不要迷失理论追求的方向。     

关于共产党员先进性教育的思考

在全体共产党员中开展以“三个代表”重要思想为主要内容的保持共产党员先进性教育,是中央加强党的执政能力建设的一项重大措施。清醒地认识这一教育的重要意义,需要把握好以下几个关系:一、保持共产党员先进性与党的理论和纲领判断一个政党是否先进,主要是看他的理论和纲领是否反映历史前进的规律,是否符合时代发展的方向。中国共产党从成立的第一天,就确立了马克思主义的指导思想,确立了共产主义的奋斗目标,从而使党具备了先进性。党的这一性质要求其党员必须坚定不移地坚持马克思主义理论的指导,必须始终不渝地坚持共产主义的远大理想。…     

试析石油经济风险及其规避

在许多国家的经济增长和发展中,石油经济仍然起着重要作用,但因多种原因,它面临许多风险。本文分析了导致石油经济风险的主要原因以及石油经济风险产生的影响,并提出规避石油经济风险的具体建议。     

青少年犯罪成因实证研究

青少年犯罪的成因相当复杂，对其探讨已涉及到了各种学科和社会层面，并渐有“科际整合”的趋势。本研究立足于具有“科际整合”特点的国内外代表性学说一般犯罪理论和犯罪综合动因论的理论基础上进行实证研究，探讨家庭、学校、同侪以及低自我控制等因素对青少年出现违法、犯罪行为的预测作用。     

Explaining incumbent re-election in authoritarian elections: evidence from a Chinese county

Despite the burgeoning comparative literature on authoritarian elections, less is known about the dynamics of competition in authoritarian subnational elections where opposition is not allowed to organize into parties. Local elections without partisan competition in single-party authoritarian regimes provide considerable advantages to the incumbents and may well turn the incumbent advantage common in liberal democracies into incumbent dominance. What economic factors can break incumbent dominance in such competition without parties? With quantitative and qualitative evidence from grassroots elections in China, this article illustrates that economic growth and industrial economic structure offering more economic autonomy help to break incumbent dominance and increase the prospects of successful challenge to incumbency by non-party outsiders. The examination of the findings in a broad context in China and against the backdrop of local democratization in the developing world suggests that though we may observe successful challenge to incumbency, liberalization of the political system requires not only competition, but also a relatively autonomous economy to sustain liberalization prospects. The findings contribute to the literature on electoral authoritarianism, subnational democratization and China’s grassroots elections.     

中美亚太战略竞争格局的形成、走势及管控

当前,在亚太特别是东亚和西太平洋地区,中美两国形成的竞争与合作并存且以竞争一面呈上升趋势的战略两强格局日渐明朗化。在该格局形成的过程中,中美两国综合实力对比的变化以及由此带来的核心利益调整属于结构性动因;两国国内政治因素以及中美之外第三方因素的复杂影响,进一步加速该格局的形成过程,构成了非结构性动因。伴随着中国综合国力急速腾升与美国国家实力相对衰落的结构性背景,中美亚太战略竞争关系中的缓和空间将进一步压缩,而其竞争空间将在经济、安全、政治、军事等领域全面展开。推动中美竞争机制呈现良性互动而非恶性循环,美国需放弃固守的霸权思维,适度分享责任与权力;中国也需给予更多耐心与定力。     

新加坡:2016年经济回顾与2017年展望

2016年,新加坡经济呈低速和缓慢增长态势,经济增速、主要产业、对外贸易及投资均出现不同程度的下降,就业形势日益严峻.在此背景下,新加坡多举措促进企业发展,积极参与国际经济合作,推动重大国际项目建设,并成立未来经济委员会以保障经济稳定发展.2017年,在政府多种措施的刺激下,新加坡经济将保持低速稳定发展,但仍充满不确定性.     

The Education Gap of China’s Migrant Children and Rural Counterparts

Rural residents in China today face at least two key decisions: a) where to live and work; and b) where to send their children to school. In this paper we study the second decision: should a rural parent send their child to a public rural school or have him or her attend a private migrant school in the city. While there is an existing literature on the impact of this decision on student academic performance, one of the main shortcomings of current studies is that the data that are used to analyse this issue are not fully comparable. To fill the gap, we collected data on the educational performance of both migrant students who were born in and come from specific source communities (prefecture) in rural China and students who are in rural public schools in the same source communities. Specifically, the dataset facilitates our effort to measure and identity the academic gap between the students in private migrant schools in Shanghai and Suzhou and those in the public rural schools in Anhui. We also seek to identify different sources of the gap, including selection effects and observable school quality effects. According to the results of the analysis, there is a large gap. Students in public rural schools outperform students in private migrant schools by more than one standard deviation (SD). We found that selection effects only account for a small part of this gap. Both school facility effects and teacher effects explain the achievement gap of the students from the two types of schools, although these effects occur in opposite directions.     

从网络语言看青年文化的反哺功能

网络语言是新时期青年反哺的新形式.网络语言的青年文化反哺功能已经在虚拟和现实世界凸现出来.推动网络语言发展与青年文化反哺的良性互动,既需要前辈人对网络语言的认知、接纳,尤其是要自觉融入到青年中,又要正确引导网络语言,防止网络语言暴力.     

Reproducibility of Artificial Cut on Heel Area of Rubber Outsole

Randomly acquired characteristics (RAC) are seldom used for exclusion in footwear examinations because they can disappear owing to wear. To help examiners explain discrepancies in RAC, this study investigated the reproducibility of cuts. One cut was made on the heel area of each shoe outsole and then measured. Changes in cuts were statistically evaluated, correlations between their variations and the weight/height of the subject were assessed, and the Support Vector Machine was used for the first time to study their discrimination probability. Most cuts became larger at first and then became smaller. The solidities of most cuts increased after 21 days, and the variation in the cut and the subject's weight/height were negatively correlated. Although the discrimination probability declined as the cut aged, 77% of the same-source and 96.88% of the different-source cuts could be identified correctly after 6 months, indicating that cuts on the heel area are relatively reliable.