Voting Against Your Constituents? How Lobbying Affects Representation

Citizens delegate the representation of their political preferences to members of Parliament (MPs), who are supposed to represent their interests in the legislature. However, MPs are exposed to a variety of interest groups seeking to influence their voting behavior. We argue that interest groups influence how MPs cast their vote in Parliament, but that this effect varies across groups. While lobbying by sectional groups provides incentives for MPs to defect from their constituents, we expect that cause groups in fact strengthen the link between MPs and their voters. We test our argument based on an innovative study of 118 Swiss public referenda, which allows for directly comparing voter preferences with legislative voting of 448 MPs on these issues. Drawing on a multilevel regression analysis, this study shows that interest groups considerably affect the link between MPs and their voters. Our findings have important implications for our understanding of political representation.     

Examining Callous‐unemotional Traits and Anxiety in a Sample of Incarcerated Adolescent Females

Callous‐unemotional (CU) traits (e.g., lack of guilt and empathy) are a risk factor associated with antisocial behavior. Youth with CU traits can be differentiated by varying levels of co‐occurring anxiety. In this study, we examined CU variants in incarcerated adolescent females (n = 109) and their associations with emotional and behavioral problems and history of maltreatment. Semi‐structured interviews were also conducted with a subsample of the participants (n = 13). Participants with CU traits and anxiety had similar levels of conduct problems compared to individuals with high CU traits without anxiety, but they reported more childhood maltreatment (especially sexual abuse).     

Conflict and reform in eastern europe

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez fended off a spirited challenge by Governor Henrique Capriles this fall. But continuing questions about Chavez's health and the country's dismal governance suggest that change may be coming soon. Looking ahead, the opposition will need to address concerns by the very poor that social spending will dry up if Chávez is no longer in office. Meanwhile, political differences and power struggles, and a sense of demoralization, risk undermining Capriles’ diverse coalition. The regional scenario would look very different without Chávez. External players should restrain from meddling during this period of uncertainty. Instead, support should focus on trying to ensure that Venezuelans continue to rely on the ballot box in determining the course of a country facing so many daunting problems.     

Teenage childbirth and young adult criminal convictions: A quasi-experimental study of criminal outcomes for teenage mothers

Purpose

Teenage childbirth is associated with poor psychosocial outcomes for teen mothers. One example is that teen mothers have higher rates of antisocial behavior. The extant research has not been able to determine if teenage motherhood is independently associated with criminal behavior, or if the association is due to selection factors associated with both teenage childbirth and criminal behavior.

Methods

We used longitudinal data from Swedish national registers and sibling-comparisons (both full- and half-siblings) to identify the extent to which there is an independent association between teenage childbirth and mothers’ likelihood of criminal conviction between ages 20-30, or if the association is confounded by familial (including genetic or environmental) factors that make sisters similar.

Results

Women who began childbearing as teenagers were more likely to be convicted of a crime in young adulthood compared to women who delayed childbearing. When sisters were compared, the association between teenage childbirth and criminal convictions disappeared. Multivariate behavior genetic analyses suggest genetic and shared environmental account for the association.

Conclusions

The statistical association between teenage childbirth and early adulthood criminal convictions is confounded by genetic and shared environmental factors that influence both the likelihood of teenage childbirth and risk of early adulthood criminal conviction.     

Let's talk Turkey! US influence on EU–Turkey relations

Turkey is of paramount importance to the United States and to the European Union. The United States is not only the first and foremost partner of both the EU and Turkey. It is also amongst the most committed supporters of Turkey's European integration. In support of Turkey's EU membership bid, Washington has set forth a variety of arguments and has attempted to influence EU decisions at different points in time. US advocacy throughout the 1990s was key to kick-starting Turkey's accession process. By contrast, US influence on Turkey's EU accession decreased visibly in the twenty-first century. The style of US advocacy goes some way towards explaining why this has been the case. When American advocacy has prioritized quiet, behind-closed-doors diplomacy it has tended to be more effective. When instead US officials have relied on loud public diplomacy, European reactions have been generally negative. More importantly however, it is the content of American arguments that has affected their relative impact on European perceptions of Turkey. Depending on whether the US has spoken to the rights-, the interest- or the identity-based logic of enlargement, the influence of the United States on Turkey's EU membership prospects has varied. On the grounds of this analysis, this article concludes by outlining broad policy suggestions regarding how the United States could contribute more effectively to Turkey's European integration.     

Trajectories of Delinquency and Problem Behavior: Comparison of Social and Personal Control Characteristics of Adjudicated Boys on Synchronous and Nonsynchronous Paths

In this paper we identify and distinguish two categories of manifestations of deviance, problem behavior and delinquency, and show that they often follow synchronous developmental sequences. Using data from a sample of 506 adjudicated boys, we investigate the difference between those with synchronous trajectories, in which problem behavior and delinquency follow similar developmental paths, and those with nonsynchronous trajectories, in which the two follow different developmental paths. Comparison of the trajectories shows that personal control variables, such as social maladjustment, value orientation, manifest aggression, and extroversion, are more effective in discriminating between trajectories than are social control variables from school, peer, routine activities, and belief categories. These personal control variables are often not included in studies of delinquency.     

The application of Kvaal's dental age calculation technique on panoramic dental radiographs

INTRODUCTION: Literature reports on a method for dental age calculation which is based only on radiological measurements on periapical dental radiographs: the relationship between chronological age and the two-dimensional dental pulpal size was analysed by means of multiple regression analyses. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate whether this approach could be feasible and could lead to statistically sound results with adequate repeatability when applied on panoramic radiographs. MATERIALS AND METHODS: One hundred and ninety seven panoramic radiographs were collected at random from patients of whom the age ranged from 19 to 75 years. According to the reported technique, six teeth were selected on the panoramic radiograph: in the maxilla the central and lateral incisor and second bicuspid, and in the mandibula the lateral incisor, cuspid and first bicuspid. The same exclusion criteria as in the original paper were respected. Statistical analysis was carried out in order to spot significant differences between the chronological age and the calculated age. RESULTS: When the age was calculated based on measurements of all six teeth or of all three mandibular teeth, no significant differences were found between the real age and the calculated one. In all other instances using the individual teeth separately or using all three maxillary teeth statistical analysis revealed significant differences. CONCLUSION: There appears to be no significant difference between applying the original technique on standard long-cone periapical radiographs or on orthopantomograms, especially when carrying out measurements on all six selected teeth.     

Correlates of Behavioral Outcomes in Sexually Abused Children

The present study attempted to identify individual and contextual factors associated with outcomes in a group of 63 latency-aged children disclosing sexual abuse (SA). Children reporting SA were found to display greater internalizing and externalizing behavioral difficulties as well as more sexualized behaviors relative to same-age non-abused peers. Mothers also reported these children as less socially competent than their peers. Family contextual factors appeared to be associated with behavioral difficulties and made a unique contribution to the prediction of externalizing and sexualized behaviors. Of the personal variables, avoidance coping was found to be linked to poorer outcomes. In examining possible factors linked to ‘resilient’ outcomes in a 6-month time-frame, family conflict and avoidance coping were found to be associated to clinical status in children reporting SA.