Foreign policy indicators: Predictors of war in history and in the state of the world message

Despite the promising advances in the construction and use of social indicators, there has been little application to the formulation, monitoring, or evaluation of foreign policy. In the formulation stage—our concern here—predictor or early warning indicators could be very useful. The annual state of the world message contains many such predictive indicators of war, but in a purely verbal and intuitive form. Three of these (prior war, relative capabilities, and alliance levels) are converted into operational language and then put to the empirical test. In general, the indicators do not predict war (over the past 150 years) as postulated by the Administration. These tests are, however, very incomplete, and our objective is not to evaluate the Administration's arguments, but to suggest one way in which indicators could improve the quality of foreign policy formulation.This is a revised and abbreviated version of the paper originally prepared for the 1972 meetings of the American Political Science Association held in Washington, D.C. We want to acknowledge the important assistance of Hugh Wheeler, the comments and help of John Stuckey, Russell Leng, Stuart Bremer, Catherine Kelleher, and Charles Gochman, and the support of the National Science Foundation under grant no. GS-28476X1.     

Leaving Careers in IT: Gender Differences in Retention

The low prevalence of women in the information technology (IT) workforce has received considerable attention in recent years. The focus of much of this discussion concerns how women can be recruited into careers in IT by making careers more attractive and accessible to women. The size of the IT workforce depends on retention as well as recruitment. The focus of this study is on retention, examining factors related to retention and how retention varies by gender. Data for the study come from the Scientists and Engineers Statistical Data System (SESTAT) compiled by Science Resources Statistics (SRS), National Science Foundation (NSF). We find that retention varies by gender and that a sizeable proportion of IT-trained women who are not working in IT jobs leave the labor force rather than take positions in other occupations. We also find that marriage and family play different roles for women and men in affecting retention.JEL Classification: J1, J4, J6, J7, O39     

Fitness to be sentenced: a historical, comparative and practical review

A Canadian judicial decision recently held that a person convicted of a criminal offence who suffered a substantial deterioration in mental condition since the trial could be found unfit to be sentenced. The court based its conclusion on both historical arguments and the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. There are compelling justifications for recognizing this concept. The paper looks at the history of fitness and how the sentencing phase became disconnected from claims of unfitness in the late 19th century. It then considers theoretical justifications based on fairness, viewing sentencing as a moral discourse, and the effect of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Because of the number of practical questions that need to be addressed before implementing a concept of unfitness at the sentencing stage, the paper looks at some common law jurisdictions for guidance: Australia, New Zealand, and the American states of New York, Illinois, Connecticut, and Ohio. From these comparisons comes the idea of a "provisional cap". That is, the recognition of unfitness at the sentencing stage should be followed by a form of sentencing that takes into account the gravity of the offence, the prosecutor's position, any relevant aggravating or mitigating factors that can be adduced, and then results in a "provisional" sentence, whether custodial or community-based, which stays in effect until the offender becomes fit. The paper ends with a model that incorporates this approach while providing both that offenders will be confined, if necessary, in hospitals and not prisons, and also that the dispositions will be reviewed annually to ensure that the least restrictive and least onerous sanctions are imposed.     

A 14- to 24-year longitudinal study of a comprehensive sexual health model treatment program for adolescent sex offenders: predictors of successful completion and subsequent criminal recidivism

The study determines the effectiveness of a sexuality-positive adolescent sexual offender treatment program and examines subsequent criminal recidivism in the three outcome groups (completed, withdrawn, referred). The sample consists of 122 adolescent males and their families (491 individuals). Of the demographic variables, only living situation was significant, such that patients living with parents were more likely to graduate. None of the behavioral variables were found to be significant. Of the treatment variables, length of time in the program and participation in the Family Journey Seminar were included in the final model. When they were included in the model, no other treatment variable were significantly related to probability of graduation. There were no arrests or convictions for sex-related crimes in the population of participants that successfully completed the program. This group was also less likely than the other groups to be arrested (p = 0.014) or convicted (p = 0.004) across all crime categories.