Fracture patterns on the infant porcine skull following severe blunt impact

The objective of this study was to document patterns of fracture on infant porcine skulls aged 2-28 days (n = 57) because of a single, high energy blunt impact to the parietal bone with rigid (nondeformable) and compliant (deformable) interfaces. Fracture patterns were mapped using Geographic Information System software. For the same generated impact force, the rigid interface produced more fractures than the compliant interface for all ages. This study also showed that this increased level of impact energy versus an earlier study using a lower energy resulted in new sites of fracture initiation and also caused previously defined fractures that propagate into an adjacent bone. Several unique characteristics of bone and diastatic fracture were documented as a function of specimen age, impact energy, and interface. These data describe some baseline characteristics of skull fracture using an animal model that may help guide future studies from forensic case files.     

Temporal analysis of the cocaine metabolite benzoylecgonine in wastewater to estimate community drug use*

Abstract: Indirect estimation methods of cocaine consumption may not reflect the real extent of cocaine use. Another approach is sewage epidemiology. This direct approach is based on analysis of a stable cocaine metabolite, benzoylecgonine (BE), in wastewater. Influent to the Lubbock (Texas) Water Reclamation Plant was sampled twice a week to assess weekly variations in estimates of cocaine consumption over a 5‐month period. BE was extracted from influent wastewater samples using solid phase extraction and analyzed using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. Measured concentrations of BE were converted to cocaine equivalents; the estimated average daily consumption of cocaine during the study period was 1152 ± 147 g. Based on BE concentrations and sewage epidemiology, higher cocaine consumption was observed on weekends compared to weekdays (p < 0.0003). This method was effective in monitoring BE in wastewater and could be used to complement survey data in estimating cocaine use at a local level.     

The Development and Application of Random Match Probabilities to Firearm and Toolmark Identification

The field of firearms and toolmark analysis has encountered deep scrutiny of late, stemming from a handful of voices, primarily in the law and statistical communities. While strong scrutiny is a healthy and necessary part of any scientific endeavor, much of the current criticism leveled at firearm and toolmark analysis is, at best, misinformed and, at worst, punditry. One of the most persistent criticisms stems from the view that as the field lacks quantified random match probability data (or at least a firm statistical model) with which to calculate the probability of a false match, all expert testimony concerning firearm and toolmark identification or source attribution is unreliable and should be ruled inadmissible. However, this critique does not stem from the hard work of actually obtaining data and performing the scientific research required to support or reject current findings in the literature. Although there are sound reasons (described herein) why there is currently no unifying probabilistic model for the comparison of striated and impressed toolmarks as there is in the field of forensic DNA profiling, much statistical research has been, and continues to be, done to aid the criminal justice system. This research has thus far shown that error rate estimates for the field are very low, especially when compared to other forms of judicial error. The first purpose of this paper is to point out the logical fallacies in the arguments of a small group of pundits, who advocate a particular viewpoint but cloak it as fact and research. The second purpose is to give a balanced review of the literature regarding random match probability models and statistical applications that have been carried out in forensic firearm and toolmark analysis.     

Cloud forecasting: Legal visibility issues in saturated environments

The advent of cloud computing has brought the computing power of corporate data processing and storage centers to lightweight devices. Software-as-a-service cloud subscribers enjoy the convenience of personal devices along with the power and capability of a service. Using logical as opposed to physical partitions across cloud servers, providers supply flexible and scalable resources. Furthermore, the possibility for multitenant accounts promises considerable freedom when establishing access controls for cloud content. For forensic analysts conducting data acquisition, cloud resources present unique challenges. Inherent properties such as dynamic content, multiple sources, and nonlocal content make it difficult for a standard to be developed for evidence gathering in satisfaction of United States federal evidentiary standards in criminal litigation. Development of such standards, while essential for reliable production of evidence at trial, may not be entirely possible given the guarantees to privacy granted by the Fourth Amendment and the Electronic Communications Privacy Act. Privacy of information on a cloud is complicated because the data is stored on resources owned by a third-party provider, accessible by users of an account group, and monitored according to a service level agreement. This research constructs a balancing test for competing considerations of a forensic investigator acquiring information from a cloud.     

We will not Swallow This Bitter Fruit: Theorizing a Diplomacy of Anger

What does it mean to say a state is angry? To answer this question, this paper theorizes a diplomacy of anger. Specifically, the diplomacy of anger involves a vehement and overt state-level display of anger in response to a perceived violation. Although the diplomacy of anger threatens precipitous escalation in the face of further violations, it can be ameliorated by conciliatory gestures and will subside over time absent new provocations. What is more, the diplomacy of anger can also exercise a reciprocal influence on the emotional dispositions of those that practice it. The diplomacy of anger thereby contributes to constructing particular issues as sensitive and volatile, and thus outside the realm of standard bargaining interactions. To examine the analytical purchase of this approach vis-à-vis standard accounts of coercive diplomacy, this paper looks in-depth at the 1995–96 Taiwan Straits crisis.     

Eyewitness Identification Accuracy and Response Latency

Eyewitness identification research has reliably shown that accurate identifications are faster than inaccurate identifications. Recently, D. Dunning and S. Perretta (2002) claimed that an identification latency of 10-12 s not only best discriminates between accurate and inaccurate identifications but also produces extremely high accuracy rates, approaching 90%. Consistent with predictions from recognition memory theory, however, we show that the optimum time boundary varies with overall response latency under manipulations of retention interval and nominal lineup size, and that the accuracy rate inside the optimum time boundary is much less impressive than previously reported. We outline directions for clarifying the accuracy and latency relationship to assist the reliable diagnosis of identification accuracy.     

Postbariatric surgery deaths, which fall under the jurisdiction of the coroner

Obesity has attained epidemic proportions in the United States, with more than 50% of adults classified as overweight or obese. If untreated, morbidly obese patients have a 1 in 7 chance of reaching normal life expectancy. The surgical treatment of obesity has emerged as the most effective treatment modality in long-term weight control and has become increasingly popular, with attendant postoperative complications and death. We performed a cross-sectional, coroner based, 2-year retrospective review of archival case records for decedents who died following bariatric surgery for the treatment of obesity to identify underlying causes of death and forensic characteristics of this cohort. Fifteen (0.5%) out of 3097 archival cases died following bariatric surgery, with approximately 73% of decedents dying within 6 months of surgery. The underlying causes of death in 80% of decedents were natural comorbidities of obesity, with cardiovascular diseases (33%) being the most frequent causes of death, followed by gastrointestinal diseases (20%), acute pulmonary thromboembolism (13%), and acute bacterial pneumonia (13%). The majority of decedents were white females who remained morbidly obese after bariatric surgery. Only 2 decedents died of direct inadvertent/accidental surgical complications.     

Evolution of Maya Polities in the Ancient Mesoamerican System

The analysis of politics in antiquity presents new opportunities for political science and international relations, particularly the ancient New World ( c . 2000 B.C. to A.D. 1521). Governance through leadership and institutions, collective action, war and peace, alliance dynamics, regional hegemonies, interstate rivalries, and other universal patterns of world politicsexisted in Mesoamerica, antedating the modern state system. We report findings from a study to record systematically the rise and fall of Maya polities in the Mesoamerican political system, using sources from archaeology and epigraphy. Based on tests of competing hypotheses and new distribution statistics and hazard rates (survival analysis) for 72 Maya polities, our findingssupport a model of Maya political dynamics based on Preclassic origins, punctuated phases of development, multiple cycles of system expansion and collapse, and weaker political stability for increasingly complex polities. We draw two main implications: (a) a new theory of the Maya political collapse(s), based on their failure to politically integrate; and (b) confirmation for a newperiodization of Maya political evolution, different from the traditional cultural periodization, based on several cycles of rise-and-fall, not just one. Our findings may also make possible future investigations in areas such as the war-polarity and war-alliances hypotheses.