A Comparison of Logistic Regression,Classification and Regression Tree,and Neural Networks Models in Predicting Violent Re-Offending

Previous studies that have compared logistic regression (LR), classification and regression tree (CART), and neural networks (NNs) models for their predictive validity have shown inconsistent results in demonstrating superiority of any one model. The three models were tested in a prospective sample of 1225 UK male prisoners followed up for a mean of 3.31 years after release. Items in a widely-used risk assessment instrument (the Historical, Clinical, Risk Management-20, or HCR-20) were used as predictors and violent reconvictions as outcome. Multi-validation procedure was used to reduce sampling error in reporting the predictive accuracy. The low base rate was controlled by using different measures in the three models to minimize prediction error and achieve a more balanced classification. Overall accuracy of the three models varied between 0.59 and 0.67, with an overall AUC range of 0.65–0.72. Although the performance of NNs was slightly better than that of LR and CART models, it did not demonstrate a significant improvement.     

对公务员行政协调的伦理思考

行政协调渗透于公务员的各种行政行为之中,对保障行政工作的平衡与稳定起着至关重要的作用。社会的快速发展以及各种行政矛盾的逐步显现需要公务员具有较强的行政协调能力与良好的道德素质,这意味着公务员在行政协调中要遵循一定的伦理原则。本文将伦理思想融入公务员行政协调之中,提出统筹兼顾的整体协调、科学务实的有序协调、灵活多样的动态协调、客观公正的依法协调和团结协作的沟通协调等建议,并分析了其中蕴涵的伦理原则,以期实现行政组织的良性运行。     

新生代农民工法律维权特点浅析

新生代农民工法律维权已经进入了一个崭新的时代,作为新一代的农民工他们的文化水平较高,他们有自己的维权意识和维权思维,而正是这样的思维指引使得他们的法律维权行为有其特有的标志,面对非法侵害,他们不再妥协沉默,而是积极主动地运用法律武器争取自己的合法权益,但是也表现出了法律维权韧性不够,运用法律维权的能力有限等消极特点。对新生代农民工的法律维权特点的研究是解决新生代农民工合法权益的法律维护问题的重要手段之一。     

德法与欧盟差异性一体化

差异性是欧洲一体化的显著特征。回顾欧盟差异性一体化发展演变过程,不难发现德国和法国发挥着十分重要甚至是决定性的影响。随着欧洲一体化的发展,德法两国的政治家认识到成员国不可能以同样的速度在所有政策领域同步前进,因此率先倡导差异性发展。德法还发起相关讨论,推动了差异性一体化的制度化发展。德法在差异性一体化问题上也存在一些认知差异,从中折射出两国对欧洲一体化未来发展方向的分歧。     

控辩平等原则下证据开示制度之反思

控辩平等原则作为现代刑事诉讼的基本理念之一，已为大多数法治发达国家所吸收。当前，中国《刑事诉讼法》面临再次修改，在考虑我国国情的基础上，应当借鉴吸收控辩平等原则的合理内涵。由于人们对其确切涵义的认识并不完全一致，导致在设计控辩关系的一些具体问题上出现违背控辩平等的主张或做法。本文拟对控辩平等的涵义进行探讨，继而反思证据开示制度，以正本清源回归理性。     

Glamping It Up

When he is not at work, he is busy with his camping business. Yu Sanshui, a 31-year-old digital product engineer in Beijing, spends over 70 percent of his spare time on camping-related activities. He rented a 12-square-meter warehouse space in northwestern suburban Beijing as his "base" and goes there al-most every day. The engineer slash vlogger slash camper originally rented the space to store his extensive camping equipment, which simply cannot fit into his apartment. Since his first camping experi-ence back in 2018, he has spent a total of roughly 150,000 yuan ($23,190) on gear. Every time he goes out camping, he picks up differently com-posed kits from his base.     

No Gravity,All Gravitas

Aclose-up shot of a spinning top marks the beginning of the long-awaited class. The top floats in mid-air, spinning like it will never stop. A hand appears on the screen and grabs the top as the camera zooms out to reveal the face of Wang Yaping, a female taikonaut with a ponytail and smiling face.     

Island for Old Men

正A China Mobile office keeps island residents in touch with the modern world and each other One day every three weeks, Shi Hua spends six hours commuting to and from an island on the outskirts of Shanghai. The 33-year-old Shanghai local has been making the trip for the past three years as part of her work for Chinese telecom carrier, China Mobile.     

从权威评价活动的出发点看价值体系和价值主体的关系

权威评价活动的评价主体是权威机构，价值主体是社会群体，评价主体应当从价值主体的需要和利益出发进行评价活动，否则就会发生权威评价活动中价值主体的错位。社会主导价值体系与该社会的权威和权力相联系，核心价值体系与人文精神的时代特征和社会中大多数人的认同相联系。主导价值体系和核心价值体系的一致需要权威机构和所属社会群体利益的一致。社会主导价值体系和核心价值体系的整合将使社会核心价值体系真正体现为意识形态的本质，从而顺利实现意识形态对社会思潮的引领和对经济基础的维护功能。     

相互保险公司法律制度运行现状比较研究

纵观发达国家相互保险制度的发展轨迹,相互保险制度发展历程大致可以分为四个阶段:即萌芽阶段,初步形成阶段,发展成熟阶段,逐渐式微阶段。随着法律对相互保险公司的确认,为享受政府税收等方面的优惠,全球保险业出现了股份保险公司相互化的浪潮。欧美、日本等发达国家的股份制保险公司纷纷转型为相互保险公司。保险公司相互化浪潮的出现标志着相互保险制度的成熟。尽管经过三十年的快速发展我国的保险业取得了巨大的进步,但是从保险的密度与保险的深度两项指标来看,与美、日等发达国家的保险业相比还有很大的差距。