中国公众的获得感——指标构建、时空变迁和宏观机制

利用中国综合社会调查(CGSS)城乡居民十年近8万人的大样本,以个人幸福感、阶层流动感和阶层自我定位三大指标为外显变量,通过潜类分析方法构建起群众获得感的HMS模型和五级指标。结合省级统计年鉴数据,以动态面板模型探讨省域获得感的宏观影响机制。研究发现,在2005—2015年间,(1)我国超过一半的公众具有中高或高度获得感,但仍有三分之一群体获得感为中低或低度;(2)各省群众获得感随时间呈现较为一致的平缓上升趋势,但存在较大空间差异;(3)在省域层面,收入、健康和安全等民生指标对获得感有显著的支撑作用,但GDP增长指标和市场化、城镇化等转型指标,以及部分社会发展指标,尚未能起到应有的拉升效用,值得引起重视。     

至关重要的社会性别——21世纪如何开展全球化和社会变迁研究

作为一篇导论性文章,本文旨在促进社会变迁——与本地、国家和地区层面全球化进程相伴随——研究中强调社会性别中心位置的变革性学术和研究。本文的六个主题相互关联,都将全球化视为一种社会性别化的现象,并研究社会性别如何现身于全球化逻辑之内,以及如何被嵌入到全球化的过程和结构之中。这些主题考察了全球化如何塑造了社会性别化的制度;在男女两性资源获得和控制、价值观念、自身认同、选择、角色行为和社会性别权力关系方面,全球化是如何建构社会性别的;全球化如何影响男女两性所生活的社会文化环境。这些主题也将全球化的辨证关系解释为对男女两性产生纷繁影响的全球及地区政治经济和社会文化环境之间冲突性互动的结果。全篇的重点在于提出有效的社会变迁策略。     

中美在亚太地区的安全矛盾：演变与逻辑

近年来,中美在亚太地区的安全矛盾持续发酵,逐渐形成安全利益、理念和地区安全秩序构想的全面对立态势,成为影响中美和平共处的重要因素。秩序疑虑与热点问题的对立是中美在亚太地区安全矛盾的主要表现。中美亚太安全矛盾的全方位突显,根本上源于两国力量对比的变化以及由此引发的权力转移态势,是中美总体力量差距背景下局部力量平衡的表现。这种力量平衡表现为:中国作为地区经济中心与美国作为地区安全中心的“二元结构平衡”;中国作为陆权大国与美国作为海权大国的“陆海权力平衡”;在中国近海区域,中美权力均衡态势初步形成。在此过程中,中美对既有安全矛盾管理的失效以及彼此安全威胁认知的反复塑造,客观上增强了矛盾对立的烈度,安全困境逐步形成。随着权力消长和政策互动,中美在亚太地区的安全困境,逐步呈现出从经典安全困境转向“国家引导型的安全困境”加剧的趋势。未来,中美亚太安全矛盾仍然会受到结构性因素的影响,而经济相互依存趋势、技术发展引发的军事威慑变化、意识形态竞争以及非传统安全合作等因素,则将决定既有安全矛盾是否会走向冲突。     

Power in Transition in Marcelo Cohen's ‘La ilusión monarca’

This article examines the changing nature of power relations engendered by the Argentine transition to democracy, as reflected in Marcelo Cohen's short story ‘La ilusión monarca’ (1992). By examining contextual markers dispersed throughout the story, Cohen is shown to problematise Foucault's conception of ‘disciplinary society’ as a means to criticise the legacy of corruption bequeathed by the military dictatorship of 1976–1983. Subsequently, the work of Gilles Deleuze is deployed to demonstrate that Cohen's story philosophically examines the change in power and resistance concomitant with the transition from ‘disciplinary’ to ‘control society’ precipitated by the adoption of neoliberal economics in Argentina.     

Prospects for China-ASEAN Relations

正TERRITORIAL disputes in the South China Sea between China and ASEAN countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines notwithstanding,China-ASEAN relations remain very much on the track of peaceful development,mutual-benefit,and win-win cooperation.China recently raised new proposals on handling tensions in the South China Sea,so further diminishing possibilities that the issue     

Ecuador's Good Living Socialism: A Preliminary Study

Towards the end of the 20th century,left wing political parties took power in Brazil,Argentina,Chile and Venezuela.In 2007,Ecuador joined their ranks,becoming the most powerful and influential radical leftist country after Venezuela.Good Living Socialism is a critical part of Socialism of the 21st Century,principles from the radical left wing governments of Latin America.Its theories and practices provide realistic and historical meaning for the development of Ecuador,Latin American left wing movements and the world socialist movement.     

The Expansion of Islamic State in China's Periphery

From June 2014,ISIS has waged war and controlled territory in areas of Syria and Iraq.ISIS is also expected to seek to control areas in China's periphery in South Asia,Southeast Asia and Central Asia.This poses a direct threat to China's own security and development as well as to public safety.This article analyzes how ISIS is expanding into these areas and evaluates the scope of its influence in South Asia,Southeast Asia and Central Asia.It also examines ISIS ideology,political objectives and strategy.     

State,society and the African crisis

Rehabilitation after violent conflict is today relevant to many countries - especially but not only in SSA - and hopefully will become so for more. It is in generally too narrowly specified, too short term and too fragmented with no macro strategic or conceptual frame. Further it is usually based on quite inadequate knowledge of the history, priorities and dynamics of the afflicted country. Rehabilitation has-or should have-interacting economic (especially livelihood rebuilding), social (stress and perceived inequity reducing) and political (reconciliation and legitimacy restoration not least by rehabilitating basic service access including user friendly, personal security oriented civil police and magistrates courts system). In severely war impacted countries these are likely to be among the most economically efficient ways to regaining growth and restructured economic development as well as of rebuilding social and political reconcilliation and religitimisation.     

Issues to Be Further Observed

In observing the U.S. status in the world, we should discern the changes in the factors that have helped this nation become prosperous and strong by looking below the superficial phenomena. In my book A Cold-Eyed Survey Beyond Seas, I mentioned some factors that promoted America to become rich and powerful.……     

China-U.S. Handshake in Northeast Asia

Dual instability has simultaneously shaken China-U.S.ties and Northeast Asian balance of power,putting on hold a Six-Party Talks that promised to give birth to a region-wide security framework based on...