The rise of negative partisanship and the nationalization of U.S. elections in the 21st century

One of the most important developments affecting electoral competition in the United States has been the increasingly partisan behavior of the American electorate. Yet more voters than ever claim to be independents. We argue that the explanation for these seemingly contradictory trends is the rise of negative partisanship. Using data from the American National Election Studies, we show that as partisan identities have become more closely aligned with social, cultural and ideological divisions in American society, party supporters including leaning independents have developed increasingly negative feelings about the opposing party and its candidates. This has led to dramatic increases in party loyalty and straight-ticket voting, a steep decline in the advantage of incumbency and growing consistency between the results of presidential elections and the results of House, Senate and even state legislative elections. The rise of negative partisanship has had profound consequences for electoral competition, democratic representation and governance.     

Partisanship and party preference in government and opposition: The mid-term perspective

Most previous in-depth survey analysis of British political partisanship and party preference has focused upon election times. We use new data from a major panel study covering the years 1965–1974 to investigate trends and patterns in the midterm as well as at general election times.This leads to rather different conclusions about the utility of the party identification concept, about homing tendencies, and about trends in class depolarization and partisan dealignment.The key to political change in Britain is the mid-term of Wilson's 1966–1970 Labour government, not the crisis election of 1974.     

How election dynamics shape perceptions of electoral integrity

In recent years a growing literature focuses on how and why some election processes are viewed as having integrity while others lack it. Some scholars examine how a state's characteristics (e.g. its economic development, the education levels of its citizens, and their experience with elections) shape the voting process while others study how individual voters view the process and their role in it. The relative importance of election dynamics themselves and the process of their evaluation, however, remain unclear. What stages of the election process are most important when people evaluate elections? We argue that a better understanding of how election dynamics shape perceptions of election integrity is crucial because theoretically this process is at the heart of democratic representation and because from a policymaking standpoint these dynamics vary more over time than individual and state-level factors. This paper explains why certain parts of the election cycle are critical to determining how an election is judged—especially the fairness of election laws and media access, the conduct of election authorities, and the use of political violence. Empirical results using new data on 121 elections held in 109 countries during 2013, 2014, and the first half of 2015 are supportive of our argument.     

Before the and of the World(s): Peter Fitzpatrick and the (Inter)national Supplement

Law and Critique - In this article, I argue that Peter Fitzpatrick provides a unique contribution to international studies, most especially to contemporary interdisciplinary studies of...     

Perceived electoral malfeasance and resentment over the election of Barack Obama

Controversies over voting outcomes, and subsequent laws to seemingly curb irregularities, have led to increased scrutiny over the process of voting day activities. While studies find evidence that majorities perceive rampant fraud, the explanations for these opinions have mainly pointed to political predispositions, largely ignoring the influence of racial attitudes. We propose that contemporary opinions on electoral malfeasance are shaped by the context of a popularly elected African American president, Barack Obama, and subsequent racial resentments. Analyses of data from the 2010 Cooperative Congressional Election Study reveals that racial resentment significantly predicts higher perceiver electoral malfeasance, even after controlling for political predispositions. Surprisingly, significant racial resentment effects exist among both Obama and McCain supporters, and these effects are strongest among those who perceived Obama won because of his race. Our results highlight the hyper racialized spill-over effects into judgements about the political system.     

"反恐"战与以色列军事伦理的嬗变

在国际舆论中,21世纪以来以色列“反恐战”日渐趋向残酷无情,但从以色列自身的视角来看,以色列的“反恐”实践总体上并未脱离以色列国防军“洁净武装”传统信条的“轨道”。以色列“反恐”规范的创制与以色列的“反恐”实践呈现为一种“齐头并进”、相辅相成的态势。“反恐”实践呼唤“反恐”规范的创制,而“反恐”军事伦理诠释和引导“反恐”实践。外延扩大了“恐怖主义”的定义、模糊化平民和战斗人员的区别、重新阐释了“军事必要性”和保护本国战斗人员生命优先于减少连带损伤、另行解释了动用武力的“适度性”等,这些构成了卡希尔和亚德林提出的以色列“反恐”军事伦理的特征。以色列的“反恐”实践及其军事伦理在国际学术界和国际舆论界都引发了激烈的论争,在国际社会仍然以负面态度为主。但以色列国内社会政治的右倾化和宗教化倾向,却为之提供了强大的内在支持。在“民族”与“民主”之间,以色列的民意“天平”出现了向“民族”的明显偏转。秉持宗教锡安主义立场的宗教势力大举渗入以色列国防军,对以色列国防军的“反恐”军事伦理嬗变产生了深远影响。     

美国“一体化威慑”的战略逻辑：以AUKUS的演进为范例

在大国竞争背景下,美国拜登政府正式提出并实践“一体化威慑”战略概念。“一体化威慑”意味着通过跨越领域、区域、冲突域、部门、盟国和伙伴等五个维度的“一体化”调度,统筹“拒止性威慑”“韧性威慑”“直接和集体施加成本进行威慑”三种威慑逻辑,针对特定的竞争对手和安全问题施加威慑。在战略逻辑上,美国以“不对称多极”格局为基础,以海洋特别是西太平洋为主要场域,以中国为主要威慑对象并以“印太”为建构区域,通过“网络化”的作用方式,灵活统筹并“量身定制”地施加威慑。在“印太战略”推进下,“美英澳三边安全伙伴关系”(AUKUS)成为美国实施“一体化威慑”的范例。AUKUS由美国联合最亲密盟友发起,针对美国所谓的战略竞争对手中国,以西太平洋特别是南海、台海、东海为战略前沿,通过将“欧洲—大西洋”引入“印度—太平洋”来加强跨区域威慑,并以“全政府”方式运作,囊括核潜艇、高超声速等先进能力、网络和太空等重要领域,考虑不同冲突形态,不断取得进展。然而,AUKUS的进一步推进将面临诸多“一体化威慑”固有的内在和外在困难,未来仍存在不确定性。     

The EU's policy towards China and the arms embargo

Since the rise of the “Middle Kingdom” in recent years most European leaders consider this major Asian power as the most important opportunity and challenge in the years to come, not only economically and commercially but also politically and strategically. The EU's China policy is promising, and EU–China ties have been smooth and comprehensive despite bilateral trade and human rights disputes. Concerning Cross Strait relations the domestic political development in Taiwan has a strong impact on the peace and stability in the region because Beijing has never renounced the use of force against the island in case of its formal independence. Given its large bilateral trade deficit, the EU's potential arms exports to China remain significant to the European countries. But this prospect aroused great concern from the US, Russia and Japan. Nonetheless, the Anti-Secession Law from Beijing against Taiwan in mid March 2005 and the likely change of government in the German elections in autumn 2005 on top of the failures of the constitutional referenda in France and the Netherlands in June 2005 will affect the EU decision on the embargo.