中国退役军人管理保障体制变革的理路与前瞻

退役军人事务部的组建实现了我国退役军人管理保障体制的历史性变革。本文在回顾新中国成立以来退役军人管理保障体制变革历程和分析其变革理路的基础上,瞻望未来。建议通过厘定协调领导体制、理顺部门关系、优化内部结构,在法治框架下健全完善由退役军人事务部主导、多部门协同的治理体制,积极推进退役军人管理保障体系和能力现代化。     

Beyond Dyads: Regional Democratic Strength’s Influence on Dyadic Conflict

Over the history of modern international relations research, we have moved from systemic and regional studies to empirical explorations of dyadic interactions. However, our statistical models have put the details of dyadic interactions under a microscope at the expense of ignoring the relevant regional context that these dyads interact in. This development has been in part due to computational limitations, but do we really believe that decision makers interact with one another while ignoring the regional power balance and the wishes of regional powers? In this article, I take a look at the well-researched relationship between democracy and peace by using a multilevel approach to dyadic interactions and the regions they are embedded in. The findings suggest that when the regional power balance favors democracies, it influences conflict between dyads, especially mixed dyads, by increasing the costs of aggression by autocracies and establishing regional norms of cooperation and compromise.     

Trade Interdependence and the Use of Force: Do Issues Matter?

In this project, we investigate the relationship between the use of military force and trade interdependence, suggesting that the influence of trade on militarized conflict varies based on the issue under dispute. For some issues, trade is likely to attenuate the chances that states escalate a dispute to the use of military force, while for others trade can intensify disputes so that military conflict is more likely. Specifically, we hypothesize that greater trade interdependence decreases the probability of military conflict over realpolitik issues like territory. On the other hand, greater trade interdependence increases the probability that states use military force when the issue under dispute concerns the regime, policies, and conditions in the target. To test our hypotheses, we employ new data on dyadic uses of force from the International Military Intervention data set that records the initiator’s reason(s) for using force against the target. The statistical tests support our hypotheses; trade decreases the use of force against a target for territorial and military/diplomatic reasons, which is consistent with arguments from the liberal paradigm. However, trade interdependence increases the use of force for humanitarian and economic reasons as well as to affect the regime or policy of the target. Thus, our study improves upon current research about the relationship between economic interdependence and foreign policy by specifying a conditional relationship based on the issues under contention.     

Catching Them Before Too Much Damage is Done: Early Intervention with Resistance‐Refusal Dynamics

Children often need help before their parents are ready to stop fighting. Children at the center of high‐conflict disputes, particularly those who resist contact with a parent, face extraordinary risks of maladjustment. Years of investigation and litigation may precede any meaningful attempt at intervention, based on the questionable belief that all elements of causality (or blame) must be established before any effective treatment can occur. Children's functioning may continue to deteriorate during this time, undermining their future adjustment and reducing the chance of successful intervention later. We illustrate the application of the coping‐focused, multisystemic Child Centered Conjoint Therapy model to assisting these families. Methods to assist children without compromising external investigations are discussed.     

Co‐parenting in a Highly Conflicted Separation/Divorce: Learning about Parents and their Experiences of Parenting Coordination,Legal, and Mental Health Interventions

Sixty high‐conflict separated/divorced co‐parents completed surveys investigating characteristics and dynamics (narcissism, empathy, conflict) that were examined in relation to co‐parenting style and parents' experiences of parenting coordination, legal, and mental health interventions. Study findings for this sample did not support common notions found in the literatures on parenting coordination and high‐conflict divorce that suggest these parents are often narcissistic or low in empathy. Findings pertaining to all high‐conflict participant experiences revealed the presence of common elements across aspects of practitioners and interventions with which they were both satisfied and dissatisfied.     

High‐Conflict Divorce: A form of Child Neglect

In high‐conflict divorce cases, the emotional toll on the family unit is unquestionably destructive. While the physical and mental health of the children should be the primary focus, the emotional turmoil of a high‐conflict divorce often moves the focus away from the children as parents struggle emotionally and financially. Although the best interests of the children are always in the judicial purview, the repeated, lengthy, and hostile litigation process often associated with high‐conflict dissolution has lasting effects on the physical and mental health of children, similar to those associated with physical abuse and neglect. Child Protective Services (CPS) must step in and protect the emotional well‐being of children during high‐conflict divorce cases.     

A Randomized Comparative Effectiveness Trial of Two Court‐Connected Programs for High‐Conflict Families

Parents who experience great amounts of legal conflict as they dissolve their relationship and arrive at their parenting arrangements require an outsize proportion of courts’ time and resources. Additionally, there is overwhelming evidence that conflict has a deleterious effect on their children. We partnered with the family court to conduct a study comparing the effectiveness of two programs for families deemed by their judge to be high conflict and thereby mandated to a program. Both involved one 3‐hour session; the existing program, Parent Conflict Resolution (PCR), used exhortational lecture and video; the newly designed experimental program, Family Transitions Guide (FTG), based on motivational interviewing, employed exercises attempting to get parents to decide for themselves what they needed to do for the sake of their children. Parents were assigned at random to one of the two programs (the literature often terms this a randomized clinical trial) and were interviewed just before it began and 9 months later, as was a child. Results showed that child's report of their own well‐being was significantly improved by FTG as compared to PCR and that these effects were mediated by children feeling less caught in the middle. On several variables, parent report showed that parents in PCR as compared to FTG felt decreased problems in co‐parenting and less interparental conflict, although the effects were not consistent across mother and father report. There was also evidence of diminished legal conflict over 9 months in FTG as compared to PCR.     

Book Review: The Conflict Paradox: Seven Dilemmas at the Core of Disputes by Bernie Mayer

Bernie Mayer's latest book is an excellent journey into seven key dilemmas in conflict. Mayer devotes a chapter to each of the following dilemmas: Competition and Cooperation, Optimism and Realism, Avoidance and Engagement, Principle and Compromise, Emotions and Logic, Impartiality and Advocacy, and Autonomy and Community. In this review, I suggest that the book is a thorough guide through seemingly diverse and opposing conflict theories. I go through each chapter and detail how Mayer sees these concepts as interwoven instead of oppositional. He walks his readers through what have been thought of as distinctive, even opposing, approaches, theories, and concepts of conflict. The review uses points and quotes from all seven dilemmas to show the depth of Mayer's analysis and the numerous benefits to theorists and practitioners of reading and rereading his book.     

加强密集型中心商区治安管理的基本思路

城市密集型中心商区主要有传统繁华商业街、特色商品集中商区和综合性大型中心商区等类型。随着客流、物流和钱财的大量聚集,城市密集型中心商区可能会产生侵财类违法犯罪增多、消防安全隐患与道路交通拥堵突出等治安问题。因此,应当通过成立专门管理机构、落实商企治安管理责任、建立实时图像监控系统以及加强消防安全监督检查等途径加强密集型中心商区的治安管理。     

关于城市中心城区道路交通管理的思考

道路交通拥堵是目前越来越引起公众关注的社会问题,建立快捷、安全、有序的现代化城市交通管理模式是构建和谐社会的时代要求。许多城市在道路建设中缺乏对未来道路车流量的预见性、超前性规划。交通管理要凸现科学人文关怀;对交通违法行为实行“零容忍”警务政策,科学、严格、规范管理,确保道路交通安全、有序、畅通;同时,要科学用警,打造警务联动机制。