苏联末期的货币战——透视苏联解体的新视角

苏联末期,在卢布贬值的未来预期下,各加盟共和国展开激烈的银行信贷竞争,同时实行了限制卢布涌入、物资流出的经济封锁。进而,面对俄联邦汹涌而至的卢布潮水,发行主权货币成为小国寡民型共和国防止卢布占领、摆脱自身经济困境的良策。而某个加盟共和国的主权货币行动必然在整个苏联内部引发多米诺骨牌效应。统一的卢布流通域遭遇被15个彼此独立的货币流通域瓜分并取代的命运,作为主权国家的苏联也就在货币层面被摧毁。考察苏联末期的货币战是探寻苏联解体过程的一条重要线索,对于揭开苏联解体之谜具有一定的启示意义。     

宏观经济相互依存与东亚货币合作可行性

东亚地区存在两个层面的宏观经济相互依存。第一个层面是东亚与美国经济的相互依存,第二个层面是东亚区域内部经济的相互依存。全球性金融危机充分体现了东亚和美国之间经济相互依存的不对称性,而这种不对称性是不能够长期持续的,全球性金融危机促使东亚加强区域、国际的经济协调,验证了相互依存理论的合理性。相互依存的东亚需要通过政策的协调解决宏观经济政策的外部性和溢出效应问题,因而东亚地区进行货币合作的可行性较高。     

迷失的货币与突发性通货膨胀

2003年下半年我国物价有明显抬头倾向,中国人民银行采取了紧缩的预防性货币政策,以期遏制可能出现的通货膨胀。然而,紧缩的预防性货币政策并没有稳住物价水平,2003年 9月后物价越过“拐点”以较大的幅度上涨,中国经济在经历了长期通货紧缩后突然面临通货膨胀的压力。本文试图以“迷失的货币假说”来解释突发性通货膨胀的深层原因,以丰富我国货币政策的理论研究,并为提高我国货币政策的有效性提供借鉴。     

通货膨胀对股市收益的非对称性影响———基于 PSTR 模型对成熟市场的经验研究

本文通过采用非线性面板PSTR模型,利用美国、英国、日本、法国和德国五个成熟市场的月度数据,对通货膨胀对股票市场的非对称性影响进行了实证研究。结果表明,在股市处于不同的状态下,通货膨胀对股票市场的影响存在较大的非对称性。在股市收益高涨的时期,通货膨胀对股市收益存在显著的正向影响;而股市处于低收益或者负收益时期,通货膨胀对股市收益存在显著的负向影响。此外,非线性检验还发现利率变动也是导致通货膨胀对股市收益的影响存在非对称性的一个重要原因。     

Regional arrangements for providing liquidity in a financial crisis: developments in East Asia

Abstract

During the last decade three books have had a disproportionate impact on China Studies because of their controversial interpretations: Jenner's The Tyranny of History, which predicts the disintegration of the Chinese state; Menzies' 1421: The Year China Discovered the World, which describes how Chinese sailors circumnavigated the globe well before any Europeans; and Jung Chang and Jon Halliday's biography Mao: The Unknown Story. All are revisionist histories that amongst other (usually controversial) conclusions suggest there has been a conspiracy to keep the information they convey hidden. Considering their arguments and the manner of their enquiry and expression is interesting in more general ways about the construction of narrative and the nature of conspiracy, as well as about the lessons for academic research.     

基于货币错配的中国资本外逃研究

近几年涌入中国的热钱大量增加,然而,对发展中国家而言,热钱的大量涌入也许是下一轮大规模资本外逃的序幕,而货币错配引起的大量资本突然外逃,是近几年持续发生的金融危机的重要原因之一.文章利用1986-2005年的统计数据对中国货币错配与资本外逃的关系进行实证分析,结果显示:货币错配与资本外逃之间存在着显著的正相关关系,中国的货币错配促进了资本外逃,是资本外逃的重要原因之一.     

Partisan technocratic cycles in Latin America

Given their powerful positions in presidential cabinets, technocrats are an important transmission mechanism for explaining economic policy choices, but have received less attention compared to other well-established channels such as elections or democratic tenure. I incorporate the role of technocratic advisors into a domestic policymaking framework. Specifically, I contend that left governments tend to appoint technocrats, or ministers with mainstream economics training, to signal their commitment to sound governance to the electorate. This partisan technocratic pattern, however, is conditioned by a country's place in its business cycle. During periods of high growth, left governments are more likely to align with their partisan preferences and appoint heterodox advisors that drift from fiscal discipline. Employing an originally constructed data index, the Index of Economic Advisors, I conduct a statistical test of 16 Latin American countries from 1960 to 2011, finding partisan shifts in technocratic appointments and fiscal governance that are conditioned by national business cycles.     

新农村建设资金的形成机制

建设社会主义新农村必须解决资金投入问题。新农村建设资金的本源是农民创造的财富中包含着价值。因此,建设新农村的过程是农民为社会创造大量建设资金的过程。农民没能在农村积极创造财富和建设资金,是由于农村的货币资金供应严重短缺。必须通过增加农村货币资金供给来实现各类资源在农村的高效配置,农民合作经济组织要成为使用支农资金的主体。     

美国金融危机与东北地区金融发展策略

当人们对虚拟资本(比如次级债券)未来收益的现值丧失信心时,将纷纷抛售虚拟资本,追逐货币,货币内在矛盾激化,金融危机爆发。美国金融危机是信用危机,根源在于货币和资本内在矛盾的激化。东北地区经济对外开放度不高,金融机构发展迟缓、银行不良贷款水平较高、直接融资比重偏低,美国金融危机对东北地区经济和金融业的冲击不大。在美国金融危机背景下,东北地区金融发展策略包括防止不良贷款产生、促进具有区域特色的金融创新、加强企业直接融资、完善信用体系、加大对农村和中小企业的金融支持力度等。     

What are we trying to Measure?

Completely flexible exchange rates may be "excessively" volatile, with the implied currency misalignments leading to real inefficiencies in resource allocation and detrimental effects on economic growth. This paper analyses whether international currency taxation would be effective in calming exchange rate volatility and avoiding currency crises within the context of a simple model of exchange rate determination. It is found that the effects of a tax on foreign exchange volatility depend on the nature of speculation and whether the focus is on capital inflows or outflows.