2011年越南政治、经济与外交综述

2011年,越南在政治、经济、外交等各个方面都有不少值得关注的重要事件。越南召开了越共十一届党代会,进行了第十三届国会选举。在2011年里,越南完成了预定的经济计划,但仍面临诸多重大挑战。这些挑战构成了越南实现经济可持续发展的障碍。越南在外交方面注重与东南亚地区内外国家发展外交关系,其中尤为注重发展军事交往关系,积极参与国际事务,力图以此提高国际地位。但如何解决与邻国关系问题,已成为越南保持稳定的国际环境的关键因素。     

Modeling and testing the diffusion of expectations: An EITM approach

This paper uses the empirical implications of theoretical models (EITM) framework to examine the consequences of the asymmetric diffusion of expectations. In the spirit of the traditional two-step flow model of communication, less-informed agents learn the expectations of more-informed agents. We find that when there is misinterpretation in the information acquisition process, a boomerang effect exists. In this equilibrium the less-informed agents’ forecasts confound those of more-informed agents. We apply the EITM approach to a key economic variable known to have a relation to economic fluctuations – inflation expectations. Using surveyed inflation expectations data for the period, 1978–2000, we find the boomerang effect exists. One implication of this finding pertains to economic policy and economic volatility: because policymakers have more information than the public, the boomerang effect can lead policymakers to make inaccurate forecasts of economic conditions and conduct erroneous policies which contribute to economic instability.     

中日东亚货币合作——国际关系视角的分析

当今国际政治经济格局与美元霸权是东亚货币合作的大背景,在这一背景下,东亚货币合作有着更深刻的国际利益分配的潜在内涵,而不只是单纯的区域货币合作问题.美、日、中三方的利益关切共同推动和影响着东亚货币合作的进程.日元和人民币都不具备独立作为东亚主导货币的条件,东亚各国或地区的经济发展水平差异较大,货币合作的政治基础比较薄弱等现实条件,促使合作成为中日双方的最佳选择,其中,中日双方政治互信的改善对东亚货币合作尤为重要.     

数字人民币的竞争减损与规制补充

数字人民币自2020年4月试验性发行以来受到了国内外的共同关注。数字人民币具有降低货币发行成本、简化金融市场架构、提升支付效率、加强人民币国际化等优势。同时,我国为数字人民币设置的二元发行模式及100%存款准备金制度也在较大程度上避免了金融机构“脱媒”及银行挤兑加速的负面效果。但数字人民币在与数字化实体人民币的竞争中无法完全避免狭义银行问题,在与其他电子支付工具的竞争中缺乏独有竞争优势,市场前景堪忧。未来的货币规制应当考虑数字人民币的特性,为之确立有限的法偿性、不同的基准利率以及零支付手续费等配套措施。     

The new face of developing country debt

Developing country debt has been a major preoccupation for development policy makers and practitioners since the debt crisis of 1982. It is a major obstacle to economic and social progress in developing countries. After the resolution of the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s and the debt relief initiatives for low-income countries of 1997–2006 concerns about developing country debt seem to have receded. However, there are a growing number of problems that warrant concern, including the accumulation of domestic debt, short-term debt and private non-guaranteed debt, and increasing recourse by low-income countries to international capital markets. At the same time developing countries have strengthened their capacity to oversee and analyse their debt portfolios. Nonetheless, significant weaknesses remain in debt management capacity at the national level. Moreover, the activities of ‘vulture funds’ and the lack of a sovereign debt restructuring mechanism reveal major shortcomings in the international institutional architecture that need to be addressed urgently.     

Reaching Out or Pulling Back: Macroeconomic Conditions and Public Support for Social Welfare Spending

In economic hard-times, do Americans call for increases in governmental assistance, or do they clamor for declines in government assistance? We address this question by identifying the impact of state-level macroeconomic conditions on public support for social welfare spending. We analyze individual-level data from the 1984–2000 National Election Studies, combined with state-level macroeconomic indicators of inflation, unemployment, and productivity. We find that state-level inflation, not state-level unemployment nor state-level productivity, consistently and consequentially shapes citizens’ support for social welfare. With rising inflation, Americans become more supportive of means-tested social welfare spending. Our analyses generally reaffirm the value Americans place on the social welfare safety net, especially during times of economic duress. When the going gets tough, Americans reach out, rather than pull back.     

中俄两国货币国际化的形势分析

实行本国货币自由兑换,最终成为世界货币是世界大国国家竞争战略的一个重要组成部分。从汇率制度改革的进度看,俄罗斯要领先于中国一步。从货币的国际影响来看,人民币在周边国家居民中已经逐渐被认可并接受,人民币作为交易货币和清算货币已是事实。货币国际化的前提是本国经济的国际化,而要达到这一点无论是中国还是俄罗斯,都还有很长的路要走。     

中国货币政策扼制通货膨胀的效果——基于2005．7—2008．9样本的实证分析

实证分析的结果表明,2005年7月以后,中国实施紧缩性货币政策在调控方向上是正确的,有利于扼制通货膨胀.但由于前期通货膨胀的惯性和外汇占款的增加,紧缩性货币政策的效果被严重削弱,甚至出现了"紧缩性货币政策下的通货膨胀".只有各种经济政策特别是货币政策、财政政策和汇率政策本身有所改进,而且在方向、时间和力度上能够相互配合,才能提高中国货币政策扼制通货膨胀的有效性.     

使用假币罪比较研究

对于使用假币的行为 ,各国刑法大多规定为犯罪。对于本罪的构成要件 ,中外刑法除对主体要件认识一致外 ,对于该罪其他要件的规定 ,则存在着一定差异。在侵害法益上 ,外国刑法普遍认为是公共信用 ,笔者认为是国家对货币的流通管理制度。在犯罪对象上 ,外国认为是伪造、变造的硬币、纸币或银行券 ,我国认为是伪造的货币 ,不包括变造的货币。在客观要件上 ,中外刑法均认为是将假币冒充真币投入流通领域 ,但我国还有数额较大的程度要求。在主观要件上 ,中外刑法均认为是出于故意 ,笔者认为还须具有“使用”之目的。     

总体性视域中马克思货币概念的三重意蕴--基于《资本论》及其手稿的解读北大核心SSCI

在《资本论》及其手稿中,马克思秉持唯物史观与政治经济学批判相统一的总体性视域,将货币置于作为有机整体的社会历史发展与资本主义生产方式中,揭示了货币所具有的劳动生成性、关系物化性与主体抽象性三重意蕴。从历史总体维度,货币作为社会生产劳动的直接代表与资本增殖中的生产要素构成了货币的生产本源。从结构总体维度,货币作为物化社会关系和劳资关系物化形式体现了货币的关系本质。从价值总体维度,货币作为现实的人的对象化与资本抽象统治的主体存在蕴含着货币的主体本性。马克思的货币概念超越了单纯的经济学、哲学或社会学范畴,上升为总体性、革命性的社会历史范畴,在破解人类历史上的“货币之谜”的同时,也祛除了资本主义的“存在之谜”。