台湾政党再次轮替的深层原因

台湾在2008年出现第二次政党轮替的深层原因是民进党未能解决政治贫腐和经济衰退这两项选民最关心的议题.2005年"三合一"地方选举是民进党"由盛转衰"的分水岭.2008年1月的"立法院"选举,初次采取以小区单席为主、政党比例代表为辅的制度,放大了国民党和民进党的得票悬殊,在"立法院"形成"一大一小"的席次格局,为台湾政党的再次轮替埋下了重要伏笔.在2008年最高领导人选举中,民进党候选人既无法有效整合内部的派系结构.也无法摆脱扁案和激进"台独"路线的困扰,争取中间选民的支持,从而导致了台湾政党的再次轮替.     

The strategic determinants of legislative malapportionment in new democracies

When the number of seats to be elected in the districts of an electoral system is not proportional to their population, the cost of seats in raw votes tends to vary across districts. Malapportionment generates partisan bias when some parties do better (worse) in the districts where seats are cheaper (costlier) than in other districts. While existing research has focused on the exogenous determinants of malapportionment, in this article we argue that malapportionment also derives from the strategic decisions of ruling elites to maximize their legislative representation. The degree of malapportionment in newly democratized countries increases when ruling policymakers have reliable ex ante information about the geographical distribution of partisan support, and the authoritarian incumbent, at the moment of democratic transition, is strong. Our arguments are tested with original data from 60 third and fourth-wave democracies at national and district levels.     

理性地认识民主——兼论民主价值的普适性与民主形式的多样性

民主是天下公器,谁也不能独霸民主;民主也是世界公理,谁也不能拒绝民主.民主是价值的普适性和形式的多样性的统一.世界上没有统一的民主模式,也没有不能共享的民主价值.在理解民主和发展民主的过程中,必须充分认识民主价值和民主形式这种既有区别又有联系的辩证关系,理性而有效地推进民主发展.     

台湾政党体系发展趋势探析

2009年台湾的县市长选举、2010年初的两次“立委”补选以及年底的“五都”选举表明,民进党的政治实力已经从2008年的低谷回升.鉴于国民党和民进党各有源于不同阶层、不同地域的基本支持者,台湾民众在身份认同、统“独”议题、两岸关系、涉外关系方面存在较明显的“蓝、绿”分野,有理由预料均衡两党体系和政党轮替,将成为岛内的政...     

关于民主集中制实质问题的探讨

民主集中制作为共产党和社会主义国家的组织原则和制度,它的实质是什么呢?这是一个引起争论、事关重大的理论与实践问题,必须进行深入地研究。本文指出,从历史研究的角度考察,已经先后有了四种主要的解读,这就是列宁、《苏联大百科全书》和我国两位学者的不同解读。本文对四种解读作了扼要的介绍,并进行了简要的评说分析,说明了列宁提出的民主集中制,是从民主制和集中制派生出来的,是民主制和集中制两部分的结合,在革命斗争时期,这其中的集中制起决定作用,民主集中制的实质只能是集中制。民主集中制在其发展进程中,经历了新的变化,进入新的形态,即在革命胜利后,其中的民主制大于其中的集中制并将最终完全复归于民主制的形态,民主集中制的实质必然归位于民主制。     

Continuing Revolt of the Urban Chinese Voters: The Case of Kepong

Abstract

Since the 2008 Malaysian general election the Chinese vote has swung overwhelmingly to the opposition, and this trend has continued in the 2013 general election. When announcing the results of the 2013 general election, Prime Minister Najib labelled it as a ‘Chinese tsunami’. Taking the case of Kepong, this article attempts to explain the reasons for the urban Chinese voters’ continuing support for the Democratic Action Party.     

Human rights violations and genocide in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

The massacres that took place in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) between 1996 and 2003 have posed an interesting challenge to the global community, specifically to its more powerful members. Ironically, the Tutsi-dominated government of Rwanda enjoys international recognition and benefits based on the genocide, Rwanda suffered in 1994, but continues to deny the same benefit to Hutus as they were accused of leading a counter-genocide campaign then in the DRC. While the people of the DRC, as well as human rights activists, call for justice for all who were affected, the government of Rwanda, strongly backed by a number of powerful international powers, opposed attempts by the international community to pin charges of genocide perpetrated by its army in the DRC on it. Because of the clear negation of the genocide report by the Rwandan government, the nature of human rights, human rights violations, and genocide criteria proposed and defended by key members of the international community in relation to the mass killings in the DRC are examined.     

‘Opening up’ by default: North Korea,the humanitarian community and the crisis

In April 1999, ASEAN formally admitted Cambodia thereby completing its declared goal of grouping together all ten Southeast Asian countries under its umbrella. This was the culminating event in the latest phase of ASEAN's enlargement. This process, however, had been problematic from the start. The entry of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam without any clear criteria for admission has raised questions regarding the preparedness of these countries to participate in ASEAN. More importantly, it led to strains in ASEAN's relations with its dialogue partners over the legitimacy of some of the governments in power in these countries. The was further complicated by the economic upheaval caused by the financial crisis which struck Southeast Asia in 1997. The impact of these events on ASEAN has put into question the association's growing role as a leading player in Asia-Pacific affairs. More importantly, it has raised issues which are central to ASEAN's continued existence.     

日本民主党时代的对俄关系及战略性展望

2009年8月,民主党取代了长期垄断日本政坛的自民党,为国内的政治改革送来一缕清新之风。鸠山政权试图摆脱美国对日本的政治束缚,外交政策上强调与东亚国家及地区的合作关系,并暂时缓和了因领土争端而陷入僵局的日俄紧张关系。但是,随着鸠山政权的倒台,以及此后的民主党政权逐渐回归"向美一边倒"的保守主义政治态势,致使日俄领土争端急速升级,双边关系的维系也仅停留于经济窗口的沟通。     

Evolution of the Japanese Political Scene: Toward a Non-Issue-Oriented Two-Party System?

This article examines the nature of the two-party system in Japan. The electoral reform of 1994 has finally led to an alternation of power, but contrary to the predictions of the reformers, the competition between two major Japanese parties is not based on any substantial differences in their political programs. The Liberal Democratic Party and the Democratic Party of Japan are mixtures of various groups rather than coherent parties and the main axes of struggle on the Japanese political scene run across party divisions. Both major parties are internally divided with regard to economic as well as defense policy. The most important factor of Democratic Party of Japan's identity has been the goal of achieving an alternation of power and abolishing the Liberal Democratic Party style of policymaking. Nevertheless, the discourse on political renewal has been undertaken also by the Liberal Democratic Party. While the struggle between the partisans and the opponents of Koizumi reforms continues in the Liberal Democratic Party, the Democratic Party of Japan is torn apart between the proponents of ‘big’ and ‘small’ government.