Know Me,Love Me,Fear Me: The Anatomy of Candidate Poster Designs in the 2007 French Legislative Elections

Candidates in many elections spend a significant amount of their budget on posters, yet we know virtually nothing about their communication roles. Based on party strategy and visual communication research, this article argues that poster content is the result of strategic choices by candidates, with major and niche candidates using significantly different poster designs in an effort to influence voters' evaluations. Using an original database of 256 candidate posters from the 2007 French legislative elections and content analysis computer software, I show that niche party candidates consistently emphasize partisan and factual information cues (through size and placement on posters), while major party candidates rely heavily on candidate-oriented visuals and on nonverbal cues (e.g., eye contact) to persuade voters. Preliminary analyses indicate that poster visual design strategies are significantly associated with both major and niche party candidates' electoral performance.     

EU assistance for civil society in Kosovo: a step too far for democracy promotion?

EU assistance for Kosovo is the most ambitious external relations venture embarked upon by the Commission to date. Not surprisingly, much of the aid is framed in terms of ‘civil society’ and channelled through a handful of local non-governmental organizations (NGOs). But attempts by foreign donors to promote civil society exogenously across post-socialist Eurasia are deemed to have achieved little in terms of stimulating individual participation and civic engagement. In response the EU appears to have refined its approach by combining the usual support for larger NGOs with more basic assistance for grassroots networks and community-based initiatives. Whilst such a twin-track strategy is arguably appropriate in the context of Kosovo where civil society participation is particularly low, in terms of maximizing the critical development of transactional capacity the approach may fail to target resources most effectively. It is argued here that there is a danger that normative concerns about liberal pluralism, enriching civil society and ensuring that assistance is widely dispersed may ultimately detract from the imperative of deploying limited resources first and foremost to secure a core of sustainable NGOs with developed capacity to engage government, the international community and other non-state actors in the process of policy reform. Indeed, drawing on the experience of civil society assistance in new member states of Central and Eastern Europe, it would seem that although NGOs are often criticized for their detachment from community organizations and campaigns, they perform a critical ‘behind the scenes’ role in policy change and state transformation. They can, if donor funding is appropriately targeted, facilitate the emergence of civil society networks through which small community organizations are then linked with larger, established and capacity-endowed organizations.     

美国TPP战略的动机及其对东北亚经济一体化的影响研究

美国TPP战略既是美国外贸政策的重大调整,也是对WTO全球多边贸易秩序的系统性突破。它不仅反映了美国政府试图重振其国内脆弱经济的努力,同时也标志着美国亚太经济合作战略的重大转变。本文运用一般均衡模型,模拟了不同情境下美国TPP战略对不同地区产生的各种经济影响。模拟结果显示:TPP加入国家福利增加,而非加入国将受损,一个不包括中国的TPP将使得中国福利受损,贸易条件恶化。中国需要迅速建立包含中日韩三国的东北亚自由贸易区,同时应根据自己的长远利益构建针对美国TPP战略的其他对冲性政策。     

Regionalizing Multilateralism: Estimating the Power of Potential Regional Voting Blocs in the IMF

This paper explores the voting power of hypothetical regional voting blocs in the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund. We first discuss the prospect of regionally defined groups becoming more significant in the Fund’s decision-making process. After briefly outlining the IMF’s formal decision procedures, including its weighted voting system, use of special majorities, and the function of voting groups in the Fund’s Executive Board we define three indices of a priori voting power — the Banzhaf, Johnston, and Shapley-Shubik indices — which are then applied to existing voting groups. Following this we simulate several regionally defined a priori coalitions and their potential to influence outcomes in passing resolutions in the Fund using a simple majority. The coalitions we specify are based on the assumption that members of the IMF will form into voting blocs based on regionally-defined preferences. The procedures employed use existing voting weights to project the relative strengths of alternative regional blocs that could emerge within the IMF. Our results indicate that the United States would have the greatest voting power in almost all scenarios. A voting bloc comprised of European countries, however, would be able to dominate the United States unless the U.S. formed an Asia-Pacific bloc. Japan, the PRC, and other Asian countries appear to be unable to form voting blocs that would provide them with more voting power than the United States.     

俄罗斯对外能源战略和中俄能源博弈

俄罗斯对外能源战略具有一贯性,即使用"能源武器"开展对外能源合作。但与苏联和叶利钦时期相比,当前的俄罗斯对外能源战略更为灵活和务实。俄罗斯不仅要利用能源来壮大自身经济实力,还要运用能源武器提升自己的大国地位。中俄能源合作有着广阔的前景,但由于俄罗斯追求"国家利益"最大化,以及采取"捆绑式"能源外交,使中俄石油管线的修建一波三折,天然气合作依旧处在初级阶段。中国应加强对俄罗斯对外能源战略的研究,认清两国能源合作中存在的问题,以此推动双边和多边的能源合作。     

Parliamentary scrutiny as a function of interparliamentary cooperation among subnational parliaments

ABSTRACT

The paper analyses the scrutiny activities of three different types of institutionalised form of interparliamentary cooperation with participation of subnational parliaments: the Conference of European Legislative Assemblies; the Baltic Sea Parliamentary Conference; and the Interregional Parliamentary Council of the Grande Région. For the purpose of analysis, the analytical parameters of parliamentary functions are modified and applied to the forms of institutionalised interparliamentary cooperation. It is shown that the exertion of scrutiny activities increases in relation to the age and institutionalisation of an interparliamentary cooperation. Ex ante control, which may consist of as little as demands, develops more easily than ex post control. Moreover, the exercise of the scrutiny function becomes more difficult when the level(s) that populate(s) the interparliamentary cooperation is/are not congruent with the level(s) that populate(s) the executive body of the respective international organisation. Interparliamentary cooperation of subnational parliaments struggles to scrutinise an organisation in which national executives play a major role.     

进一步开创和把握陕西经济又好又快发展

开创和把握陕西经济又好又快发展,必须在发展战略上,正确处理"好"与"快"的关系,纠正在"好"与"快"关系处理中的片面认识,坚定地树立又好又快的发展目标,把科学发展的理念贯彻在每个项目建设上,落实在每个经济行为中;必须抓住陕西经济发展的现实机遇,创造全国阶段性高增长水平;必须进一步创新陕西经济发展理念,打造持续健康增长的坚实支点;必须正视挑战,破解风险,保持全省经济发展的和谐氛围。     

EU accession and the hardening of soft budget constraints: some macro evidence

The hardening of soft budget constraints (SBCs) is a central element in transforming the economies of Central and Eastern Europe into market economies. This paper presents macro evidence on budget hardening of transition economies comparing the performance of EU accession countries relative to non-accession countries. We estimate SBC hardening for 21 transition economies in a partial adjustment model by measuring the reaction of employment to output changes over a 10-year period. The paper finds that accession candidates have reduced excess labour demand substantially relative to non-accession countries.

台湾南部的社会政治环境与民进党的政治版图——兼对“南方政治”定义的探讨

台湾的政治版图已出现所渭"北蓝南绿"的格局,台湾学界有人将南部稳定支持绿营政党的情形命名为"南方政治"。实际上民进党在南部的政治版图从1990年代中期就已经显形,台湾南部由于本省人占多数的"省籍-族群"分布、具有更厚重本土味的性格与社会经济状况等的耦合,再加上绿营耕耘多年,引导和激发了较浓厚的"本土"价值,目前民进党在南部的政治版图虽收缩,但这种社会政治环境使其仍有一定的根基。不过,研究者多数从民进党或泛绿在南部的得票率和政治版图等来分析"南方政治",这种定义是狭义性的,就"南方政治"与南部的社会政治环境相关性,从广义上其更应定义为地域意识或地方性在政治上的表现,它虽与民进党的关联颇深,但在蓝营方面也会有所体现。     

西部大开发的成效、问题及对策建议

国家实施西部大开发战略以来,西部地区经济社会各项事业发展迅速,在经济总量、基础设施建设、产业结构优化、生态环境保护等方面取得了一系列成就。但是,西部地区仍存在区域内部发展不平衡、人民生活水平仍然不高、对外开放程度较弱等问题。本文在分析和评价西部大开发战略实施成效的基础上,梳理了西部大开发战略继续实施所面临的主要问题,提出了进一步推进西部大开发的政策建议。