From resistance to military institutionalisation: the case of the peshmerga versus the Islamic State

This study explores differing strategies and tactics employed by the peshmerga forces against the Islamic State (IS). This experience highlights a number of issues which are relevant to contemporary security debates. Firstly, the struggle highlights important aspects of the development of the peshmerga and their strategies as an organised non-state military force (defending as it does the Kurdistan Region in Iraq). Secondly, the peshmerga–IS conflict is an important case study of small wars. The strategy and tactics used here are therefore useful empirical references about the effectiveness of military force in counter-insurgency. Finally, the war against IS united the peshmerga forces, possibly for the first time, and effected a radical change in the Kurdish use of military tactics, including the shift from defensive to offensive strategies. The article examines the methods employed by the peshmerga forces against IS, explains why the cases of Makhmour and Shingal stand out as tipping points, and discusses the evolution of Kurdish defence capacity.     

Uneven development,inequality and concentration of power: a critique of Thailand 4.0

This article provides a critique of the Thailand 4.0 strategy to push the country out of the middle-income trap through innovation-driven, inclusive and sustainable growth. First, it argues that the policies have insufficiently analysed the persistence of structural hierarchy and uneven development in the global political economy, which will constrain Thailand’s catch-up success in the future. Second, based on writings about progressive mission-led industrial strategies, it is argued that Thailand 4.0 ought to embed a progressive social and environmental agenda more clearly in its industrial strategy. Third, it is argued that Thailand 4.0 neglects to address the high concentration of political and economic power in the country, and also continues to allow unequal access to the policymaking process that has led to socio-environmental problems. Overall, this article argues that Thailand 4.0 will increasingly aggravate the two-tier fragmented nature of the political economic system of Thailand, where few can reap the biggest shares of the surplus and participate in more advanced sectors of the economy. It also calls for a more progressive industrial strategy and an alternative developmental path.     

Forecasting the Effectiveness of Policy Implementation Strategies

Primarily, policies are intended to address economic, social and environmental problems. When implementing a policy, any government will be faced with the decision as to what strategy to adopt in order to meet the objectives set out by the policy in the most cost effective way. Several such Policy Implementation Strategies (PIS) may be available, making such a decision not so straightforward. With limited funds available, such a decision has particular importance for budgeting. This paper proposes forecasting PIS effectiveness as a decision support tool. The nature of Structured Analogies (SA) is considered suitable for generating such forecasts. A simpler version of SA, semi-structured analogies (S-SA), where experts do not need to recollect the exact outcome of analogies, is tested. Empirical findings suggest that in the hands of non-experts, the S-SA approach improves forecast accuracy when compared to unaided judgment. Accuracy improves further when forecasts are produced in groups.     

The Shanghai Co-operation Organisation: China's Initiative in Regional Institutional Building

China's initiative in establishing and promoting the development of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) is an interesting case study of China's attempt at regional institution building. China's increasing interest in Central Asia coincided with its gradual acceptance and rising enthusiasm regarding participation in regional organisations. The “Shanghai Five” mechanism and the SCO were seen as appropriate mechanisms for pursuing China's multiple interests in the region; their development was also in line with the improvement in Sino-Russian relations. Chinese leaders have skilfully developed the SCO's institutional framework, and they seem intent on getting good value for the resources spent. The leaders have also demonstrated considerable patience when the SCO's development encountered setbacks.     

African modernities and the critical reappropriation of indigenous knowledges: Towards a polycentric global epistemology

ABSTRACT

While the African Union's New Partnership for Africa's Development (AU/NEPAD) strives for both plurilateralism and regionalism, there are ideological and practical conditions that challenge the feasibility of a fully fledged regional integration institution in Africa. This article examines the AU/NEPAD in relation to Africa's ideological back-loading, while it explores how the programme reconciles Western-dominated economic plurilateralism with Africa's developmental regionalism. It highlights the ideological changes that helped with the modernisation of Western countries and how these developments become a challenge to Africa's economic development efforts. Africa has always been an ideological back-loader and a delayed integrator into global interdependence. During the mid-20^th century, at the time Western countries (in particular Western European countries) were adopting regionalism, Africa was engaged in the same phenomenon for political and economic independence. While the economic crisis of the mid-20^th century following the Second World War (WW2) enabled the industrialised countries to adopt embedded liberalism for socioeconomic development, at decolonisation Africa sought to espouse what turned out to be the dependency paradigm as the economic development strategy for Africa. In the 21st century, developed regions are transcending regionalism and gearing towards plurilateralism while most African leaders remain fixated in traditional regional integration on the continent. As the neoliberal ideology dominates the contemporary international political economy of the 21^st century, albeit questionably, Africa's politico-socioeconomic realities are also premised on the same embedded liberalism. However, economic plurilateralism by industrialised countries with Africa challenges efforts towards regional integration on the continent. It would seem that the AU/NEPAD provides a viable compromise between developmental regionalism and economic plurilateralism on the continent.     

Lesotho's interactions with South Africa and regional organisations in Southern Africa

Media reports alleged in late 2012 that South Africa was treating Lesotho ‘worse than … under apartheid’. To test that premise, this article contrasts Lesotho's regional and bilateral interactions during the colonial and apartheid eras with present relationships. It reviews bilateral and regional factors that impact Lesotho, emphasising Lesotho's roles in the Southern African Customs Union, the Common Monetary Area, and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) as well as diverse bilateral transactions with South Africa. Lesotho's experiences with SADC economic, political and security operations are evaluated. Whether a mutually beneficial relationship with South Africa is replacing the prior hegemonic pattern is questioned, especially after the peaceful transfer of power in 2012 to Lesotho's opposition parties. Dual citizenship, open borders, an economic union and even the remote possibility of political fusion are discussed. Finally, the article addresses how Basotho view border issues, why they have reservations about regionalism and political amalgamation, and why commitment to separate Lesotho statehood persists.     

From the ASEAN People's Assembly to the ASEAN Civil Society Conference: the boundaries of civil society advocacy

Civil society organisations (CSOs) have asserted their claim for participation in regional governance in Southeast Asia through multiple forums held since the late-1990s. The two most enduring are the ASEAN People's Assembly (APA), organised by ASEAN-ISIS and held seven times from 2000 to 2009, and the ASEAN Civil Society Conference (ACSC), organised by the Solidarity for Asian People's Advocacy network and held nine times from 2005 to the present. Through comparative analysis of the boundaries of CSO participation in these two events, this article explains why the APA was superseded by the ACSC, and it highlights states' growing intrusions into the ACSC. It argues that states' expanding repertoire of tactics to direct the ACSC has seen the structure of CSO participation in this event recast, challenging the view of the ACSC as an independent space for advocacy and indicating the hollowness of ASEAN's commitments to creating a ‘people-oriented’ Association.     

What is a region? Towards a statehood theory of regions

This article presents the outline of a statehood theory of regions with the aim of contributing to a better understanding of what regions are, how they function and how they emerge. First, a definition of region is introduced that starts from the use of the concept of region in everyday language. It is argued that ‘region’ is a discursive tool used to refer to governance units that are not states but have some statehood properties. Second, a comparative framework is developed that allows to present theories of regions in a systematic way. Third, this framework is used to outline a general theory of regions at the supra-national, sub-national or cross-border level. This theory can be labelled as a ‘statehood theory of regions’ as it underlines the statehood properties of regions as well as the complex relationships between states and regions. According to this theory, regions are in a double relation to states: they are to some extent supportive to the state(s) that created them, and they have a tendency to gain autonomy from their creators. The whole paper can also be regarded as an exercise in interdisciplinarity as it brings in perspectives from psychology and personality theory in order to transpose the Hobbesian metaphor of states acting as persons to the understanding of regions.     

Is the Department of Defense Properly Sized and Configured to Meet Future Needs? A Post‐September 11 Perspective,

Abstract

With the events of September 11 still fresh and with the “war” on terrorism in progress, now is the ideal time to discuss the most important single issue in the Department of Defense (DoD)—the mission/budget mismatch. Prior to the September 30, 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review, the stated mission of DoD was to be able “to deter and defeat nearly simultaneous large‐scale, cross‐border aggression in two distant theaters in overlapping time frames, preferably in concert with regional allies.” To accomplish this mission, DoD needed significantly more resources in the order of $50 billion to $100 billion per year. Also to fight and win two major theater wars required that DoD maintain especially large forces, which, with limited resources, could lead to “hollowness” or under funding of certain key force components such as airlift and sealift. While not abandoning the two‐war requirement, the most recent Quadrennial Defense Review took an important step in modifying this requirement by moving toward a “win‐hold‐win” strategy. Although still two war requirements, this new strategy required that we would “win” on one front, “hold” on in a second front, and then shift our forces to the second front after a victory on the first front. Should DoD size its forces around two major theater wars, a “win‐hold‐win” strategy, or around only one major theater war? This article argues for the latter option and thus for a “transformational” force which is smaller than past forces but is a highly mobile, highly trained, and highly equipped military force.