俄罗斯与东亚国家的原油贸易——价格分析的角度

近年,俄罗斯主要通过4条途径向东亚国家输送原油.由于这4条途径的油源地及输送方式不同,因此最终的交易价格也不相同.笔者选取2条途径--用铁路通过满洲里向中国输油和用油轮从萨哈林岛向日本和韩国输油--的贸易价格与俄罗斯对欧洲的离岸价格及中东原油对东亚国家的到岸价格进行比较分析,揭示俄罗斯原油在东亚石油市场的价格现状.本文还对通过东西伯利亚-太平洋管道的出口原油的价格作出预测,指出它的价格将高于目前中俄铁路原油贸易价格和同品质的中东原油价格.     

“游”的下行与“文”的上升——论东汉士人流动的下行趋势及其文章史意义

东汉士人的流动相对战国、西汉时期的士人流动呈现出下行趋势,具体表现为游学群体的平民化、游学地点的民间化和游学目的的俗世化。士人流动、士人流动的下行促成了文章写作群体的生成与文章体裁的新变,并带来了东汉文章写作的繁荣。伴随着大量士人的流动与写作群体的生成,非实用类文章也日渐增多,表现为文章抒情功能的提升。后世所言的真正的文学这一意识形态,日益脱离史学、经学而走向自觉与独立,最终促成了文的上升。     

北约核政策与核态势的回顾及展望

北大西洋公约组织作为军事同盟,自建立之初就以美国核武器的"延伸威慑"为安全保障。冷战时期,欧洲曾是美苏争夺霸权的重要战场,双方进行了疯狂的核军备竞赛,欧洲长时间笼罩在核阴云之中。冷战结束后,欧洲各国从核阴霾中成功走出,在美国的主导下,北约实力逐步走向全盛时期。出于对后冷战时期国际安全形势的乐观判断,北约的关注重点从单纯的传统军事防御向更加广泛的非传统安全领域扩展,核武器在北约防卫中的作用不断减弱,核武器规模不断裁减。然而,2014年的乌克兰危机给欧洲的战略格局带来巨大冲击,俄与美欧关系降至冰点,双方开始轮番展示核力量,核阴影再次重现欧洲上空。从北约核态势的历史演变轨迹和乌克兰危机对北约核态势的冲击中,人们能够窥见北约未来安全发展态势。当前北约与俄罗斯核态势的变化,预示着未来核竞赛模式与风险都会与冷战时期有所不同,意味着核门槛的降低以及核武器使用风险的增加,这对全球核不扩散机制、全球核裁军进程与全球军事竞争模式都将产生深远影响。     

回顾与展望——科学认识社会主义发展的历史进程

建立科学的社会主义制度 ,是一项不断探索、反复试验的伟大的社会工程 ,不可能一次完成。 2 0世纪社会主义制度的建立和发展对人类进步和世界文明作出了巨大贡献。苏东剧变 ,世界社会主义遭受重大挫折 ,教训十分深刻 ,可以从多方面、多角度去认真总结。中越等社会主义国家的改革、开放和实现社会全面进步 ,在理论和实践上都获得了巨大成功 ,形成了鲜明的时代特色。同时也为世界社会主义的发展开辟了一条新路 ,预示了 2 1世纪将是世界社会主义运动大发展的世纪     

Τhe energy parameters of the Russian–Ukrainian–EU impasse: dependencies,sanctions and the rise of ‘Turkish Stream’

The overwhelming dependency of Ukraine on Russian energy and the lack of any short-to-medium term diversification of European Union (EU) oil and gas supplies away from Moscow dictate a cooperative approach vis-à-vis Russia in dealing with the Ukrainian crisis. The EU is unable to impose any more severe sanctions on Russia’s energy industry without provoking a major negative impact on its own troubled economy. The continuation of the current confrontational friction in EU–Russian energy relations will most likely consolidate Russia’s decision to seek the elimination of its gas transit dependence on Ukraine after 2020. Such a target will be very difficult to attain by the end of this decade, even if Russia will be able to partly replace the now abandoned South Stream project with Turkish Stream.     

The limits of autocracy promotion: The case of Russia in the ‘near abroad’

In recent years, observers have raised concerns about threats to democracy posed by external support for authoritarianism coming from regional powers such as Russia, China and Venezuela. This article assesses the efficacy of autocracy promotion through a close examination of Russian efforts to shape regime outcomes in the former Soviet Union. It finds that while Russian actions have periodically promoted instability and secessionist conflict, there is little evidence that such intervention has made post‐Soviet countries less democratic than they would have been otherwise. First, the Russian government has been inconsistent in its support for autocracy – supporting opposition and greater pluralism in countries where anti‐Russian governments are in power, and incumbent autocrats in cases where pro‐Russian politicians dominate. At the same time, the Russian government's narrow concentration on its own economic and geopolitical interests has significantly limited the country's influence, fostering a strong counter‐reaction in countries with strong anti‐Russian national identities. Finally, Russia's impact on democracy in the region has been restricted by the fact that post‐Soviet countries already have weak democratic prerequisites. This analysis suggests that, despite increasingly aggressive foreign policies by autocratic regional powers, autocracy promotion does not present a particularly serious threat to democracy in the world today.     

The End of Regional Middle Eastern Exceptionalism? The Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council after the Arab Uprisings

Up to the Arab uprisings, Middle Eastern exceptionalism served as an important paradigm for analyzing politics in the Arab world. With the numerous upheavals of the Arab uprisings, which caused fundamental political change in significant parts of the Arab world, this paradigm has been challenged for analyzing the domestic affairs of contemporary Middle Eastern politics. The present article aims at contributing to the debate by focusing on the regional dimension of Arab Middle Eastern exceptionalism. The Arab uprisings vitalized regional institutions, particularly the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council. Two main arguments are critically discussed. First, in sharp contrast to the revolutionary period of the 1950s, the conservative Gulf monarchies, particularly Saudi Arabia, have been spearheading regional politics since the Arab uprisings. Second, in striking difference to the conservative character of the Gulf States’ domestic agenda, the means that the Arab League (and the Gulf Cooperation Council) has recently used are innovative—for instance, policies of softening the principle of noninterference in the domestic affairs of other states. However, despite the recent animation of regional institutions under the leadership of Saudi Arabia, it is unclear whether the recent trend of new regionalism will be sustained.     

新世纪俄罗斯与中东欧国家关系探析

苏东剧变后,俄罗斯与中东欧国家之间的关系先一度紧张,后有所改善。此后,中东欧国家先后加入了北约和欧盟。在此过程中和过程结束后,俄罗斯与中东欧国家之间在一定程度上仍然相互敌视,它们之间依然存在着一些矛盾,但是,如较少考虑外部因素的影响,仅从相互关系现实的各个方面来看,双方的关系正不断地加强。这既体现出俄罗斯外交越来越务实的特点,也折射出俄罗斯对外交战略层次的考虑。     

The Civic Education Project in Belarus,Ukraine, and Moldova: the impact of dependency

The reliance of development NGOs on donor funding exposes them to the danger of formulating programmes geared to meeting the needs of the donors, rather than those of local beneficiaries. In the worst-case scenario, NGOs may exacerbate existing problems through interventions that reinforce their own dominance and undermine local empowerment. This article examines some of the practices of one international NGO which worked in the field of higher education in three former Soviet countries.