Birthplaces,migration and identity in the 2001 census for Ukraine

Ukraine used to be one of the most ethnically mixed Soviet republics due to a high level of immigration, mostly from other parts of the Soviet Union. This article uses the sample of households available at IPUMS International to study the information about birthplaces, migration and marriage partners in recently released microdata from the 2001 census. Since Ukraine’s independence in 1991 a large emigration surplus and ethnic estrangement have turned the country into a place with a lower degree of internal migration and ethnic intermarriage. With the exception of the capital Kiev, there was relatively little interchange of migrants between the eastern, Russian-dominated regions and the western regions. The highest degree of intermarriage was among people with at least one partner born abroad, most often in Russia. There is evidence of an elite of migrants from Russia to the Russia-oriented south-eastern provinces, who may feel especially threatened by the Ukrainian nationalistic takeover of power which happened after the Maidan insurrection.     

Analyzing trade opening in Ukraine: effects of a customs union with the EU

This paper analyzes the possible effects of a customs union between Ukraine and the European Union. The GTAP multi-country simulation model of Purdue University’s Center for Global Trade Analysis is applied. The welfare measure evaluated is the change in equivalent variation (EV). As all incomes in the model accrue to a representative household, EV fully assesses possible welfare benefits for Ukraine from bilateral tariff elimination on trade with the EU. As the model includes Ukraine in the aggregated “Former Soviet Union” region (FSU), EV is estimated for the FSU and then disaggregated on the industry level proportionally to trade shares. The results of our simulations suggest that Ukraine’s EV is particularly sensitive to the inclusion of the agricultural sector into a customs union. Due to the highly protected nature of this sector within the EU, Ukraine would be better off if agriculture were excluded from liberalization. If this scenario is assumed, Ukraine’s monetary gain would be in the order of $40 million.

欧洲主权债务危机的反思及其对东亚货币合作的启示

始于希腊波及欧洲多国的欧洲主权债务危机,不仅威胁欧元区的经济复苏,使欧元区的内在弊端暴露无遗,而且还引发人们对欧洲一体化进程和最优货币区理论的反思,为其他地区经济货币合作特别是东亚货币合作提供诸多启示。     

乌克兰危机的民族政治解读

乌克兰危机是民主政治、大国地缘政治博弈、民族政治等要素杂糅并复合互动的产物,作者从民族政治的角度对之加以解读。第一,历史上的民族积怨与对立是导致乌克兰危机的重要历史根源,但它在当下如何被“记忆”与“重新发现”才是理解这一根源的关键。第二,在乌克兰二十余年国家建设中,出现了国族主导与主体民族主导两种路径的张力与冲突,这是导致当前乌克兰危机的深层次国内政治根源。第三,在乌克兰民主实践中,出现了现代政党政治与传统民族政治合体的趋势,这一合体包含了内在张力,实际上是乌克兰国家转型不成熟的标志,这是当前乌克兰危机爆发的政治制度与政治文化根源。第四,不恰当地运用民族自决权,则是乌克兰危机迈向国际危机的重要根源。第五,从国内政治角度看,乌克兰危机源自国家建设的失败,其民族政治更应从国家建设意义上加以审视。鉴于乌克兰危机短时间难有转机,面对危机发酵以及后危机时代的冲突治理,民族政治因素的负面作用仍不容忽视,民族政治在未来的乌克兰政治生活中仍将是一个棘手的对象。     

The limits of EU governance: Belarus's response to the European Neighbourhood Policy

The article examines some conceptual and practical tensions related to the application of the external governance framework to the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) in less motivated states, such as Belarus. First, it critically analyses the foundations of the external governance framework – from M. Smith's perspective – in order to suggest that the failure of the ENP to legitimize in Belarus should not be solely attributed to the vices of Lukashenko's regime. Second, it argues that an understanding of specifically Belarusian ‘boundaries of order’ – geopolitics and culture – is essential for tailoring a more nuanced policy that will be able to accommodate the needs and interests of ‘less motivated’ ENP partner states. In conclusion, it is suggested that a new policy framework – of extended partnership – should be more technical and less political, based on horizontal networks of cooperation rather than on hitherto hierarchical governance by conditionality that has found little appeal in the less motivated neighbourhood. Can an Eastern Partnership framework become such an alternative?     

Prospects for Russia-NATO relations: The SWOT analysis

Despite recent changes in international relations and lapse of time since the fall of the USSR, the issue of Russian membership in NATO has been an ongoing fact. Hence, the principle scope of the paper is SWOT analysis of potential Russian membership in NATO from the perspective of the Russian Federation. Through the introduction and evaluation of advantages and disadvantages of such membership in the light of latest geopolitical events in Eurasia suggested by academic and professional circles in NATO countries and Russia, we proceed with identification of fundamental strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats that Russia might face. Taking into account such determining factors as the size of its territory, shifting geopolitical conditions in the world, modern understanding of security and a potentially frozen dispute in Ukraine, we come to the conclusion that benefits potentially brought by Russian membership in NATO could be sustained while drawbacks could be eliminated by incorporation of NATO to OSCE and a change in voting procedures of the Alliance.     

Lost in Transition: The Liberal International Order in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus

Abstract

While espoused by the newly independent states after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the liberal order has not taken root in interstate relations and is now openly contested in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus. However, the challenges presented (primarily by Russia) to the international order also trigger growing contestation, in several Eastern European and South Caucasus countries, of an existing regional order premised on Russian hegemony. Therefore, the picture that emerges from these multiple contestations is not an alternative regional order, but rather overlapping orders in a fragmented region.     

Quasi-citizenship as a category of practice: analyzing engagement with Russia’s Compatriot policy in Crimea

This article analyzes engagement with Russia’s Compatriot policy, as an example of ethnizenship-type of quasi-citizenship, in Crimea, as the most likely case of Compatriot engagement. The article focuses on unpacking the lived experience of Compatriot identification and engagement and the rationale for this engagement. The article finds a narrow and niche engagement with the Compatriot policy in Crimea where only the most politicized and discriminated individuals, alongside beneficiaries of the Compatriot policy, identify as Compatriots. However, the article also finds dissatisfaction with the Compatriot policy because it fails to offer the kind of status, and rights and benefits, of ‘full’ citizenship. Thus, while citizenship might be becoming fractured, via quasi-citizenship policies, citizenship remains the key point of entry to the kin-state. Focusing on the lived experience of quasi-citizenship, and examining quasi-citizenship as a category of practice, is crucial for developing understanding of the social and political impacts of quasi-citizenship policies.     

Faith-based HIV response in post-Soviet Eastern Europe: the case of Channels of Hope in Russia,Romania, and Armenia

ABSTRACT

Most of the data available on faith-based HIV response focus on Africa, which is the heart of the pandemic. This article investigates faith-based community-level HIV responses within Eastern Europe, by studying the implementation of World Vision International’s “Channels of Hope” faith-based HIV intervention. The intervention approach was developed in a high HIV-prevalence setting (South Africa) and then implemented across sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere – including three low HIV-prevalence Eastern European settings (Armenia, Romania, and Russia). Drawing from implementation and evaluation research, this article explores the nature, challenges, and potential of faith-based HIV response within low-prevalence, post-Soviet contexts.     

北约核政策与核态势的回顾及展望

北大西洋公约组织作为军事同盟,自建立之初就以美国核武器的"延伸威慑"为安全保障。冷战时期,欧洲曾是美苏争夺霸权的重要战场,双方进行了疯狂的核军备竞赛,欧洲长时间笼罩在核阴云之中。冷战结束后,欧洲各国从核阴霾中成功走出,在美国的主导下,北约实力逐步走向全盛时期。出于对后冷战时期国际安全形势的乐观判断,北约的关注重点从单纯的传统军事防御向更加广泛的非传统安全领域扩展,核武器在北约防卫中的作用不断减弱,核武器规模不断裁减。然而,2014年的乌克兰危机给欧洲的战略格局带来巨大冲击,俄与美欧关系降至冰点,双方开始轮番展示核力量,核阴影再次重现欧洲上空。从北约核态势的历史演变轨迹和乌克兰危机对北约核态势的冲击中,人们能够窥见北约未来安全发展态势。当前北约与俄罗斯核态势的变化,预示着未来核竞赛模式与风险都会与冷战时期有所不同,意味着核门槛的降低以及核武器使用风险的增加,这对全球核不扩散机制、全球核裁军进程与全球军事竞争模式都将产生深远影响。