社会主义发展信念的效力浅析

本文从分析信念构成和信念效力问题出发,论述了社会主义信念的革命特征和社会主义信念效力的历史表现。在此基础上,分析论证了社会主义信念的现时形态——社会主义发展信念的弱化原因,并提出积极的应对措施。     

政府规制的“成本—收益分析”:作用、内涵及其规制效应评估

本文回顾了对成本收益分析的争议,对规制成本、规制收益的内涵进行了探讨,并就其中影响规制成本和收益构成的主要因素作了重点分析;随后,对影响净收益的基线的选择,折旧率大小的确定进行了阐述。本文还介绍了一般均衡分析和局部均衡分析在评估规制效应中的适用情况,并强调指出应高度关注规制动态性和激励性规制在规制效应分析中的作用。文章最后认为,应逐步引入成本—收益的规制分析理念,提高政府规制有效性;高度重视因成本收益不平衡分布引发的问题;积极采取措施,降低因规制引发的复杂性程度。     

中国财政政策对居民消费需求的非对称效应——基于流动性约束视角下一个新的分析框架

政府运用财政政策扩大居民消费需求,除了需要科学抉择政策取向之外,政策力度和节奏的把握也非常关键。本文在Tagkalakis研究的基础上,首先提出了中国财政政策对居民消费非对称性效应研究的理论框架,然后建立财政政策冲击对居民消费影响的经济计量分析模型,利用1999—2009年中国省际面板数据估计了政府消费冲击、税收冲击以及预期可支配收入对居民消费的影响,并在此基础上进一步考察流动性约束在财政政策冲击对居民消费产生非对称性影响中的作用。实证结果表明财政政策冲击在好与坏两个时期之间对居民消费产生了显著的非对称性凯恩斯效应。其中在坏的时期,政府消费冲击与税收冲击对居民消费影响效应的绝对幅度相对较大。虽然国外理论界认为非对称性效应产生的原因复杂,本文认为在我国财政政策冲击对居民消费产生非对称性效应的原因中,流动性约束起到了非常重要的作用。另外,预期可支配收入因是否面临流动性约束而对不同类型消费者的消费需求影响发生方向性改变。     

THE COGNITIVE INTERVIEW AND ITS EFFECT ON WITNESSES’ CONFIDENCE

Today there is ample evidence that the Cognitive Interview (CI) enhances witnesses’ memory. However, less is known about how the CI affects eyewitnesses’ confidence. To address this shortcoming we conducted a study analyzing how realism in confidence was affected by the CI. All participants (n=79) were first shown a filmed kidnapping. After 2 weeks we interviewed one-third of the participants according to the guidelines of the CI, one-third according to a Standard Interview (SI), and one-third were not interviewed at all (Control condition). Participants in all three conditions were then asked to answer 45 forced-choice questions, and to give a confidence judgment after each choice. For the 45 questions, no differences in accuracy were found between the three conditions. Confidence was higher in the CI and SI conditions, compared with the Control condition. CI and SI did not differ in metacognitive realism but both showed lower realism compared with the Control condition, although only CI significantly so. The results indicate that the inflation in confidence is more likely to be explained in terms of a reiteration effect, than as a consequence of the particular mnemonics characterizing the CI (e.g. “mental reinstatement of context”). In sum, CI does not seem to impair (or improve) the realism in witnesses’ confidence, and does not inflate confidence in erroneous recall, compared to a SI.     

论审前重复供述的可采性

由于审前重复供述的可采性直接关涉非法证据排除规则能否得到有效实施,因而,必须对审前重复供述的可采性做出规范。域外国家和地区有关判例在判断重复供述可采性时均是分析前次的非法取证行为是否对重复供述产生影响。此种分析严格来说不是“毒树之果”理论的运用．而是“非法讯问行为持续影响效力”的分析方法。我国应采用“非法取证行为持续影响效力”的分析方法,以便能在现行的法律框架内为法院排除重复供述提供法律依据。采用此种分析方法须综合考量个案中的具体因素。在我国,排除重复供述还面临着前次非法供述难以被排除以及法官自由裁量权过大两方面的困境,对此应进一步构建和完善相关制度．     

以民事司法查封财产设定抵押的效力分析

虽然《担保法》《物权法》以及《民法典》明确规定不得以依法被查封的财产设定抵押,但不能据此认定其属于禁止性规定,从而将违反该规定而设定抵押权的行为一律归为无效。查封虽在公法上具有绝对效力,但就其对债务人的效力而言,尤其是在最高人民法院于2004年制定《查封规定》之后,已经由绝对效力转为相对效力。结合《民法典担保制度解释》第37条第2款规定来看,若查封已经充分公示,债务人以查封物设定的抵押权仅是相对无效,不得对抗申请执行人(包括轮候查封的申请执行人)以及其后参与到执行程序中的债权人,但对于其他债权人而言仍是有效的。如果查封的公示效应不达,则允许成立善意取得,就查封物取得抵押权的债权人有权对抗前述主体。     

The Dynamics of Diversion: The Domestic Implications of Presidential Use of Force

Several studies report evidence of diversionary behavior by presidents, while others dispute findings that suggest domestic politics are part of the use of force decision calculus. We argue that previous studies of U.S. force short of war have failed to articulate what diversion actually means. We approach this important debate from a perspective that brings to bear presidential agenda-setting theory. Rather than treating the use of force solely as a dependent variable, we assess whether the use of force diverts attention by modeling the percent of the American public identifying the economy as the nation's most important problem. We also include presidential approval in the model. We treat the public opinion measures as endogenous variables that may or may not affect the decision to use force. We employ Vector Autoregression (VAR) methods to evaluate the causal direction of force and public opinion while controlling for the state of the economy and war. VAR is a multiple-lagged time-series approach that allows us to test a variety of hypotheses derived from diversionary and agenda-setting theory. Our results indicate that uses of force by the president have a notable agenda-setting effect, shifting public attention away from the economy. The shift in attention also causes a long-term effect on the president's public-approval rating.     

我国反对民族分裂主义政策的监督机制与效果分析——以新疆地区为例

我国维护祖国统一、反对民族分裂主义政策的监督机制包括立法司法行政监督、公众及社会舆论的监督、统一战线监督三个方面。我国反对民族分裂主义政策取得的效果可从生产力状况、实际效果、政策回应度三个方面进行初步评估，并由此对我国维护祖国统一、反对民族分裂主义政策的监督机制和执行效果状况有一个初步的认识。     

撤销许可的法律性质及效力研究——以撤销司法鉴定许可为例

基于撤销的理由、目的和法律效果,撤销许可分为两类:一类是已经生效但在成立时即存在瑕疵的行政许可事后被撤销;另一类是合法的行政许可因被许可人在获得许可后从事违法行为而被撤销。撤销许可很有可能构成一种行政处罚,但并非所有的撤销许可都是行政处罚。司法行政机关以申请人提供虚假信息或隐瞒真实信息而骗取许可登记为由撤销许可,在本质上属于行政处罚。该撤销许可不具有溯及力,也不影响司法鉴定机构在撤销许可前出具的、被司法机关采信的司法鉴定文书的效力。