Leaders, voters and activists in the elections in Great Britain 2005 and 2010

Discussion of the relationship between parties and the electorate is often based on the notion of partisan constituencies, that parties adopt policy positions that correspond to the average position of the party supporters. In contrast, the Downsian “spatial model” assumes that parties are purely opportunistic and maneuver to gain as many votes as possible. A third, more empirical model, based on the early work of Stokes, assumes that voter choice is based on the evaluation of each of the party leader’s competence or ability to deliver policy success. Such an evaluation can be provided by individual voter overall assessment in terms of the leaders’ character traits.This paper attempts to relate these three classes of models by examining the elections in Great Britain in 2005 and 2010. Using the British Election Study, we construct spatial models of these elections in Great Britain as well as in the three regions of England, Scotland and Wales. The models incorporate the electoral perceptions of character traits. We compare the equilibrium vote maximizing positions with the partisan positions, estimated by taking the mean of each of the parties voters’ preferred positions. We define an equilibrium to be a stable attractor if the vote share at the equilibrium exceeds the share at the partisan position by a significant proportion (determined by the implicit error of the stochastic model). We infer that none of the equilibria are stable attractors, and suggest that the partisan positions are also preferred by the party activists, the key supporters of each party.     

The price of personalizing politics: Political distrust and economic performance in Latin America, 1996–2006

While research has provided evidence that culture and institutional performance shape individual level trust in political institutions, scholars have neglected to adequately estimate the effect of political institutions and macroeconomic conditions on trust. Using data from the World Value Surveys for eleven Latin American cases, we test if countries with “partyizing” electoral systems - those with rules that encourage voters to hold the party, not individuals, accountable for government performance - experience lower levels of distrust in political parties and the legislature in times of poor economic conditions than those countries with “personalizing” electoral rules. Our analysis shows that the macro political and economic context largely conditions the impact of culture and institutional performance on political trust.     

Individual and contextual variation in EU issue voting: The role of political information

Increasing politicization in EU member states about European issues can be expected to strengthen the impact of attitudes towards Europe on vote choice in European Parliament (EP) elections. At the same time this impact is likely to vary between voters and contexts as a function of political information. This study explores the role of political information in explaining individual and contextual heterogeneity in the degree of EU issue voting. Using a two-step hierarchical estimation procedure to explore both individual and contextual variation, we show that while EU issue voting in the 2009 EP elections is only slightly more pronounced among the politically sophisticated, it is clearly more extensive in contexts that provide higher levels of political information on European matters.     

Electoral losers revisited – How citizens react to defeat at the ballot box

The paper seeks to reconcile insights from winner-loser gap research with mainstream understanding of election legitimacy. The paper acknowledges that winning and losing elections creates differential incentives for citizens to remain supportive of their political system, but it argues that losers nevertheless have enough reasons to remain supportive in absolute terms. Drawing on democratic theory, the paper develops a rationale for why citizens are willing to accept electoral defeat voluntarily, and suggest a new way to conceptualize citizen reactions to election outcomes. It presents findings from a sample of election studies in established democracies to show that winners typically become more supportive whereas losers at minimum retain their level of support from before the election. It concludes that elections, when reasonably well executed, as they most often are in established democracies, build system support rather than undermine it.     

台湾政党体系发展趋势探析

2009年台湾的县市长选举、2010年初的两次“立委”补选以及年底的“五都”选举表明,民进党的政治实力已经从2008年的低谷回升.鉴于国民党和民进党各有源于不同阶层、不同地域的基本支持者,台湾民众在身份认同、统“独”议题、两岸关系、涉外关系方面存在较明显的“蓝、绿”分野,有理由预料均衡两党体系和政党轮替,将成为岛内的政...     

The Mental Health of 13–17 Year-Olds in Australia: Findings from the National Survey of Mental Health and Well-Being

The prevalence of 3 mental disorders (Depressive Disorder, Conduct Disorder and Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder), the prevalence of mental health problems, and rates of health-risk behaviours among those with problems, along with patterns of service utilisation, are reported for 1490 adolescents aged 13–17 years in Australia. Mental disorders were assessed using the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children Version IV completed by parents. Parents and adolescents also completed standard questionnaires designed to assess mental health problems, health-risk behaviours and service use. On the basis of parent reports, 13% of adolescents were identified as having mental health problems, while 19% were identified as having problems on the basis of adolescent reports. Many of the adolescents with mental health problems also had problems in other areas of their lives. Only 31% of those identified by parents as having mental health problems and 20% of adolescents who identified themselves as having problems, had attended a professional service during the 6 months prior to the survey. School counselling was the service most frequently attended. Clinical and population health interventions must take into account the presence of co-morbid problems and low rates of health service usage reported amongst adolescents with mental health problems.

赃物犯罪若干问题探究

随着经济生活的不断发展,在司法实践中遇到的犯罪形式在不断翻新,理论与实务界对掩饰、隐瞒赃物犯罪行为人的主观方面及"犯罪所得"的认定等均存在较多争议。笔者拟在实务视角下,对犯罪者"明知"、犯罪对象中"犯罪所得"、犯罪客观行为以及赃物罪定罪标准等进行分析研究。     

Examining the good lives model and antisocial behaviour

This study examined the utility of the Good Lives Model (GLM) (Ward, T., &; Stewart, C. A. (2003). The treatment of sex offenders: Risk management and good lives. Professional Psychology: Research and Practice, 34(4), 353–360. doi:10.1037/0735-7028.34.4.353) in understanding offending behaviour in students. Two hypotheses were made, consistent with the assumptions of the GLM. First, that participants would endorse the importance of the primary goods set out in the GLM. Second, that reports of antisocial behaviour would relate to a lack of effective strategies, or use of maladaptive strategies, to achieve primary goods. Participants (n?=?340, M age?=?20 years) completed a questionnaire (Measure of Life Priorities) assessing their pursuit, valuation, and achievement of the primary human goods as set out in the GLM and a Self-Report of Offending questionnaire. Results supported our hypotheses, and subsequently the assumptions of the GLM. Our findings support the continued use of the GLM as a theoretical and treatment oriented framework in diverse groups engaged in offending behaviour. Future research should continue to ground the GLM in empirical support.     

South African–Swaziland relations: A constructivist reading

There are several accounts of the past relations between Swaziland and South Africa. Some are set in the realist school of international relations scholarship. These studies portray Swaziland's policy behaviour as ‘submissive’ because of ‘immutable structural forces’. The neo-Marxian analyses locate the relations exclusively in class/ideological setting. Other accounts depict the ‘kaleidoscopic’ nature of the relations. The post-apartheid understanding of this relationship is largely gleaned from regional studies – the dominant view of which is that South Africa is reluctant to exercise hegemony in its relations with regional states. This article critiques the one-directional thrust of the realist and Marxian accounts. While endorsing multidirectional and multidimensional accounts of policy behaviour, the article shows that they lack an over-arching theoretical framework. A similar charge is directed at the post-apartheid literature. The position of this article is that constructivism offers analytical tools needed to understand the relations between the two states and how South Africa can reorder them.     

Offending histories and offending behaviour: A Ten year follow-up of sex offenders tried by Sheriff and District Courts in Grampian,Scotland

From criminal complaint records all incidents of sexual misbehaviour resulting in charges in three North East Scotland courts during 1981 and 1982 were traced. Of the 80 alleged offenders, 75 were followed up for 10 years using current criminal records.

Offending behaviour ranged from obscene telephone calls to rape. Half the offenders made no physical contact with their victims. These “hands-off” offenders were compared with “hands-on” offenders and were found to show a higher prevalence of sexual convictions both before the index offence and in the follow-up period. Those offenders who removed their victims clothes or had sexual intercourse with their victims were found to have the lowest prevalence of sexual reoffending. Degree of intrusiveness was inversely related to sexual recidivism in this sample and there was no evidence of progression over time to more intrusive offending.