创设利益制度是社会和谐的法治基础——和谐社会利益关系问题的法学思考

利益矛盾和冲突不仅是社会转型期国家的显著特征,同时,也是形成不受以往制度约束的和谐环境的重要前提。本文以分析和谐社会利益制度的法律根源作为出发点,在此基础上从利益博弈的机理层面上探寻利益制度形成的逻辑起点和实体条件,以及政府如何在利益群体博弈过程中作出创新性的实验安排,进而为在我国社会转型过程中,形成社会和谐与经济发展的基础性力量,以及进一步提高政府执政合法性的问题提供必要的实践依据和理论支持。     

中国—东盟智库战略对话·2010会议综述

2010年10月17-18日,中国—东盟智库战略对话在广西南宁市举行,本文综述与会的中国和东盟专家发言的各种观点。     

中国—东盟自由贸易区的影响分析——经济利益与战略关系

中国-东盟自由贸易区是双边关系发展到一定阶段的产物,但同时又表达了双方的某种超越性经济利益的诉求。自由贸易区的框架安排说明其是一个渐进性的综合安排,其妥协因素将会影响自由贸易区效果的迅速释放。总体来看,自由贸易区建成将会促进双边经济相互依赖,但其对于双边关系的促进作用或许将下降。     

政府在食品安全监管中的职能转变与策略选择——基于北京市场的案例调研

基于对我国食品安全监管现状的认识,本文提出了以政府为主导的食品安全控制体系向以企业为主导的食品安全保证体系的发展方向;以农产品批发市场为例,通过案例调研进一步阐述传统监管体系在实际运行中存在的问题及转变政府职能的必要性,如监管重复化、程式化和低效率,市场执行效果不好,抽检规范化、标准化和信息追溯可信度低等;并通过博弈模型分析政府和企业(市场)进行食品安全监管和控制的行为决策过程,找出通过政府职能的转变而促使企业从"反应型食品安全监管"向"自主型食品安全监管"转变的关键所在与有效路径,为提升我国食品安全监管效率、创新食品安全监管模式提供思路。     

关于加强中国国家软实力建设的几点思考

10月18日中共十七届六中全会在北京落幕,会议审议通过了《中共中央关于深化文化体制改革、推动社会主义文化大发展大繁荣若干重大问题的决定》,国家文化建设作为软实力塑造的重要组成部分,将人们的视线再次拉回到传统文化建设上来。自从20世纪90年代初美国著名学者约瑟夫·奈提出“软实力”概念以来,它就开始成为世界各国关注的焦点。纵观近现代世界一流强国崛起的历史,可以看出“软实力”建设在其崛起的过程中发挥了重要作用。中国在和平发展过程中如何提高自身的国际影响力,如何通过软实力来塑造中国良好的国际形象,掌控能力、战略信誉以及表现能力非常重要。     

Strategy and Selection in International Relations

It is widely recognized that many of the samples we use for statistical analysis in international politics are the result of some selection process. Not surprisingly, selection models are becoming increasingly popular. At the same time, the role of strategic interaction has begun to play a more important role in statistical analyses. However, it has not been clear how statistical strategic models and selection models relate to each other, or what the effects are of employing one when the other is the more appropriate model. In this article, I 1) clarify why international relations scholars cannot shield themselves from selection bias simply by assuming their results are limited to a given sample; 2) show how recent statistical strategic models relate to traditional selection models and generalize the two sets of models by deriving a correlated strategic model; and 3) examine the effects of misspecifying either correlated errors or strategic interaction. My results indicate that failure to model the strategic interaction produces worse specification error than failure to account for correlated disturbances. In fact, traditional bivariate probit models appear to be superior only when states are almost completely uncertain about each others' preferences.     

Modeling Selection Bias in Studies of Sanctions Efficacy

Sanctions rarely work but they continue to be used frequently by policymakers. I argue that previous studies of sanctions ignore the problem of strategic censoring by focusing only on cases of observed sanctions. In this paper, I develop a unified model of sanction imposition and success and test it using a simultaneous equation censored probit model. This selection-corrected sanction model finds that the process by which sanctions are imposed is linked to the process by which some succeed while others fail, and that the unmeasured factors that lead to sanction imposition are negatively related to their success.     

Where in the world is South Africa? Lecture by Ambassador Tony Leon 14 February 2013

Most of the current constructs which theoretically underpin foreign policy for this country are either overblown or incoherent; they do not appropriately define or advance or prioritise South Africa's national interests abroad, nor do they acknowledge the tensions embedded in the clash between normative policies and realpolitik. Drawing from ‘real time’ experiences in international diplomacy, this lecture explores some of the dilemmas that South Africa, as a middle-range power in the world, confronts in its international engagements. The cost-effectiveness of South Africa's global projection is also examined, and some practical reforms to achieve better results in the current age of austerity suggested.     

Innocent of the crime under investigation: suspects’ counter-interrogation strategies and statement-evidence inconsistency in strategic vs. non-strategic interviews

ABSTRACT

The study examines the counter-interrogation strategies applied by mock suspects (N?=?94), who are innocent of a mock crime under investigation but who were present at the scene, for different reasons, at around the time the crime occurred. Half were present at the crime scene to carry out a lawful act, the other half to carry out an unlawful act. Furthermore, this study examines the effect of the Strategic Use of Evidence (SUE) technique as a strategic interviewing technique (vs. a non-strategic technique), on suspects’ statement-evidence inconsistencies. Participants were randomly assigned to the two interview conditions (strategic vs. non-strategic) and were interviewed as suspects of a crime, which none of them had committed. The results show that the most commonly used counter-interrogation strategy in both groups was to be honest. However, 26.1% of the innocent suspects, performing an unlawful act, reported the strategy to be deceptive. In addition, the statements of suspects executing an unlawful act were significantly more inconsistent with the evidence in the strategic than the non-strategic interview condition. The increased statement-evidence inconsistency rates potentially put these suspects at risk of being assessed as guilty of a crime they did not commit.     

大学生对政府的信任状况研究

信任是人与人交往的核心因素,当信任上升到政府层面就尤为重要了。人民把权力委托给政府去行使,这个委托行为的前提就是信任。大学生作为国家未来发展的生力军,他们对于政府的信任态度直接影响到国家未来的发展。对这一群体的政府信任感的研究,无疑能给政府的决策和高校的教育提供信息和建议。通过高校的教育来培养和加强大学生的政府信任,对于构建和谐社会、维持政权的稳定性、为经济建设提供良好的政治环境,都具有非常重要的意义。本文利用对天津7所高校1300多名大学生的问卷调查结果,来探讨现今大学生对政府的信任状况及影响因素。