改革开放以来中国学者的缅甸研究述评

改革开放以来中国学者对缅甸的研究取得了长足的进展,目前我国从事缅甸研究的机构和人员已初具规模,研究领域的广度、探讨问题的深度以及研究成果的数量和质量,都是新中国成立以来最好的时期。但我国的缅甸研究也存在许多不足,与国外相比,仍有一定的差距。     

Race relations,nationalism and the humanitarian Rohingya crisis in contemporary Myanmar

ABSTRACT

The recent ethnic tensions in Myanmar especially in the Rakhine state has once again placed the country onto the centre stage of global media attention. The aim of this paper is to look at race relations in contemporary Myanmar with a special focus on the Rohingya community. The paper argues that problematic race relations in the country today should be analysed within a certain historical context and should be seen as part of a historical continuum. This paper places a lot of importance on this historical continuum. In this connection, the British colonial policies of divide and conquer, politicians and their obsession with Buddhism and trying to make it the state religion shortly after independence in 1948, and the xenophobic policies followed by the military junta after 1962 deserve special mention. The paper further argues that the current state of affairs and escalation in violence has happened recently because of the convergence of the activities and ideologies of certain political groups like the military junta, the National League for Democracy, the Arakan League for Democracy, and the role played by certain Buddhist extremist groups like the MaBaTha in Burmese politics. To ease the existing tension in the Rakhine, the central government would need to take a more federally minded approach and introduce meaningful democracy and development in the frontier parts of the country where there is a strong ethnic minority presence.     

Re-thinking Myanmar's political regime: military rule in Myanmar and implications for current reforms

The Myanmar military has long dominated national politics as well as the state apparatus since first coming into power in 1958. Despite a series of challenges to its rule, the military has been able to constantly re-invent itself while re-asserting its dominance over society. Cycles of popular protests and dissatisfaction with military rule have not led to regime change nor weakened the military as a unified institution. The latest incarnation of the nominally civilian government has introduced a series of liberalising reforms that have dramatically opened more socio-political space for opposition and non-state actors to participate in national politics. Despite the somewhat optimistic outlook of a more liberalised Myanmar in the future, the institutional design and historical legacy of the military's role in state-building have ensured that it has enough ‘reserve domains’ to maintain its prominent role within any foreseeable future governments in Myanmar. By tracing the historical development of the Myanmar military regime, this paper argues that current reforms were introduced as a strategy for the military to ensure its continued survival as the primary political actor in Myanmar.     

Myanmar's Electoral System: Reviewing the 2010 and 2012 Elections and Looking Ahead to the 2015 General Elections

Myanmar's 2010 multi-party election was the nation's first in two decades, signaling a manufactured transition from nearly half a century of military dictatorship toward parliamentary democracy. The current single-member district, plurality voting electoral system limits the parliamentary representation of smaller, ethnic political parties, and inflates the influence of larger, enfranchised parties, jeopardizing peaceful national reconciliation between various factions and the country's inchoate democratic institutions. Myanmar's Union Electoral Commission should consider electoral reforms that: (a) maximize proportional representation; (b) guarantee peace and political stability; and (c) guarantee a sufficient parliamentary majority that can govern the nascent democracy. The ideal system for the upcoming 2015 general elections is a Mixed-Member Proportional (MMP) one, with one parliamentary house electing ministers by plurality in regional districts and the other with proportional representation by party list. This paper considers alternative electoral systems in light of the status quo and argues that MMP would produce the most stable and representative results for all parties concerned.     

Stateness problems or regime unification? Explaining obstacles to democratization in Burma/Myanmar

The fact that Myanmar is not democratic is too often taken as a given in international policy discourse without analysis as to why it has not democratized or what conditions might allow for democratization. Plausible theories to explain Burma's authoritarian politics include poor levels of economic development, colonial history, regional geopolitical factors, problems of state formation and the unification of the military. Determining which theories have the most explanatory power is important because different understandings of Burma's authoritarianism steer one toward some remedies and away from others. In this paper, I argue that problems of state formation – ‘stateness’ in one strand of the democratization literature – and ‘regime unification’ theories stand the best chance of explaining the lack of democracy in Myanmar. I examine the logic and evidence for each theory and conclude that while both explain some of the status quo, ‘stateness’ had more explanatory power before 1988 but in post-1988 Myanmar, ‘regime unification’ explains more.     

Challenging hydropower development in Myanmar (Burma): cross-border activism under a regime in transition

Abstract

Although general elections in Myanmar (Burma) in November 2010 have transformed the political landscape, many of the characters remain the same. While there is evidence of incremental domestic political openings many of the political constraints that existed during military rule remain in force. As a consequence of decades of military authoritarian governance and civil conflict, it is Myanmar's contested ethnic borderlands that have been the important locales for the development of environmental movements, despite increased recent domestic activity. This article analyses a case study of the largely cross-border campaign against hydropower dams on the Salween River in Myanmar and finds that through the suppression of opposition and dissent at home the regime has stimulated the creation of an ‘activist diaspora’, a dynamic transnational community of expatriates who engage in environmental activism beyond the reach of the regime. Due to their relative freedom on the border and in Thailand this community has developed expertise and international networks that have proved crucial in communicating the social and environmental impacts of hydropower development in Myanmar to the international community. Through increased cooperation with an expanding domestic civil society this established activist community is stimulating improved environmental governance of hydropower development and simultaneously assisting in the creation of a more open and democratic Myanmar.     

印缅关系:从疏远到合作

冷战结束后,印度从现实利益和地缘安全战略的角度出发,大幅度调整了对缅甸的外交政策,印缅关系由疏远走向积极合作。本文从历史与现实等多个角度对背后的动因展开分析,并对其发展前景和地区影响做初步预测。     

中泰缅老四国警察院校教育培训模式比较研究

中国警察院校与泰国、缅甸、老挝警察院校在教育培训模式方面有相同之处,也有不同之处。由于受政治、经济、文化和历史发展等因素制约和国情不同,四个国家警察院校经比较,无论是招生入学考试制度,课程设置及培养方式,还是学制、教材、学时比例、专业设置、在职培训、就业方向等各有特点、各有优劣,有许多好的经验可以借鉴的。     

Democracy promotion and China: blocker or bystander?

The increasingly prosperous, mighty, and assertive China is arguably the most powerful country blocking democracy today. In addition to withholding democratic rights of one-fifth of the world's population, authoritarian China represents an alternative development model that has gained significant traction. China thus constitutes a challenge to democracy promoters. But does Beijing also countervail democracy promotion by the European Union and the United States? After a summary of the party-state's response to democracy promotion at home, we test the hypothesis that geostrategic interests or a perceived risk of regime survival will lead the People's Republic to countervail democracy promotion outside its own borders. We do so by focusing on the most likely cases in China's near-abroad: Myanmar and Hong Kong. Our analysis of Myanmar suggests that Beijing remains focused on securing economic and security interests irrespective of regime type when regime survival at home is not at risk. The case of Hong Kong, on the other hand, allows us to identify the tactics used by Beijing when there is a significant risk of democratic spillover. This case also demonstrates that the People's Republic of China is able to stifle United States and European Union democracy support when it wishes to do so.     

缅甸华文教育的现状与前景

20世纪90年代以来,缅甸华文教育在经历了二十余年的沉寂后重新复苏,华校的数量和规模已经有了较大发展。缅甸华文教育的发展与缅甸国内的政治经济发展、中国的崛起和对华文教育的支持、中缅关系的亲善、华人的努力和有利的国际背景等五个方面密切相关。同时,目前缅甸华文教育在合法化、生源和师资方面还存在诸多的困难。