Survival of the fittest. Comparing entry and exit among niche and mainstream parties in advanced democracies, 1945–2011

The turnover of political parties is a key mechanism of renewal of electoral choices. We present an organizational ecological theory on party system change, predicting that party system saturation (i.e., the effective number of parties compared to the party system's carrying capacity) differently affects the entry and exit of niche and mainstream parties from lower house elections. Pooled times-series analyses on 352 elections, 509 parties, and 21 established democracies demonstrate that party system saturation indeed increases the likelihood of exit of mainstream parties but not of niche parties. Strikingly, we also find that party system saturation increases the entry of mainstream parties. Hence, an important paradox arises since oversaturation negatively affects their survival chances.     

缅甸独立后外交政策的演变与中缅关系的发展

缅甸独立后,其政治发展经历了多次政权更迭,致使其外交政策发生了几次较为重大的变化。受此影响,中缅关系也出现了一些起伏,但总体上看,奉行积极友善的对华政策一直是历届缅甸政府所遵循的原则。     

Alternatives to the constitution of Cádiz in New Spain: republicanism and the insurgent constitutional decree of Apatzingán (1814)

This article compares the Decreto Constitucional para la libertad de la América Mexicana, published in Apatzingán by the insurgents of New Spain in 1814, with the 1812 Constitution of Cádiz which established a constitutional monarchy in the Spanish Empire. It argues that the Decreto Constitucional cannot be understood as simply a product of Hispanic political thought and a reflection of the Cádiz text. Rather, it contends that the decree published in Apatzingán represents an alternative republican response to the dissolution of the Spanish monarchy. This alternate constitutional settlement drew on the debate of constitutional ideas that had taken place in New Spain since 1808 and was grounded in many of the same ideas as those present in the Pennsylvanian Constitution of 1776 and the first French republican constitutions of 1793 and 1795.     

新时代意识形态安全态势的变化向度与应对策略——深刻领会习近平关于意识形态安全重要论述的精髓要义

意识形态领域是政治安全的前沿阵地,意识形态安全关乎全局,是总体国家安全的重要基石。意识形态安全形势在与国际形势和社会转型的链接中不断发展变动,当前,我国发展进入风险挑战不断积累甚至集中显露的时期,意识形态领域的安全态势发生深刻变化。党的十八大以来,习近平总书记审视治国理政全局,科学标识意识形态安全的战略定位,深刻洞察意识形态安全态势的变化向度和未来走向,为新形势下进一步维护意识形态安全提供了思想指引和实践遵循。新时代,应以习近平总书记关于意识形态安全的重要论述为指导,积极探索维护意识形态安全的着力点,构建牢固的意识形态安全防线,从而为维护国家长治久安和社会稳定发展提供坚实支撑。     

培育新型资本市场,拓宽融资渠道,振兴吉林经济

培育新型资本市场即由传统型融资模式向新型融资模式转变,由单一融资模式向多元融资模式转变,拓宽融资渠道,实现多渠道融资,扩大融资规模。振兴吉林经济最关键是解决资金瓶颈问题,融资方式创新和融资渠道的畅通是解决资金难的主要路径。     

风雨60年:从文学抗日到抗日文学

从文学的意义上讲,战后的抗日文学才是真正的抗日文学。前30年的抗日文学虽涌现出一批较优秀的文学作品,但整体发展并不尽如人意。新时期的抗日文学不仅完成了从“文学抗日”到“抗日文学”的历史性转变,也开创了中国抗日文学的新时代。变化得以实现的主要原因,在于文学走出了以民族的最高利益为单一立场的国家化叙事模式,也走出了战后30年以意识形态为主要立场的集体言说方式,开始了立足于民间视野和个人话语基础之上的抗日历史的文学重构与叙述。     

催化与嬗变:民族主义与晚清政府的衰亡

晚清政府的衰亡是多种历史因素和多种历史力量合力作用的结果.本文以新知识分子、士绅和革命党人三个社会群体为代表,通过分析民族主义对他们的思想观念和社会行为方式的影响,折射出民族主义在清政府衰亡过程中的作用和影响.     

《大清新刑律》中共同犯罪人分类之研究

《大清新刑律》对共同犯罪人的分类,是中国刑法史上开天辟地的选择。其对传统分类的摒弃,对最先进的西方(尤其是德国)刑法理论的借鉴,充分体现了中国刑法近代化的路径之一———法律移植。通过对这种移植的优劣得失进行评价,便于对我国现行刑法中的共同犯罪人的分类问题进行反思。     

Keeping the Family Together: Why New York Must Amend Evidence Rules to Protect a Parent's Right to be a Parent

In New York, hearsay statements made by children may be admissible in a child protective proceeding. Under Article 10 of the Family Court Act, an out‐of‐court statement only requires corroboration to support the statement's reliability. The Family Court has the choice to determine what evidence will be sufficient for corroboration. In comparison to other statutes from different states, New York's statute is very broad. This Note proposes amending the current evidence statute under Article 10 of the Family Court Act to strengthen the standard for admitting hearsay statements in child protective proceedings.     

Therapist characteristics in the treatment of sexual offenders: Tentative data on their relationship with indices of behaviour change

The present study examined the relationship between reliably identified therapist characteristics and treatment-induced changes in sexual offender treatment programmes in English prisons. The results indicated that 10 therapist features predicted beneficial changes in coping skills, perspective-taking, and relationship difficulties. A confrontational style, on the other hand, was negatively related to increased competence in coping. The results are discussed in terms of their research and clinical implications.