特朗普政府对朝核问题的危机管理及前景研判

2017年的朝核危机实质上是特朗普政府实施边缘政策而带来的一场危机,即,通过极限施压迫使朝鲜在战争和让步之间做出选择,以推动半岛无核化进程。然而,特朗普政府对朝核问题的危机管理因朝鲜的外交对冲、美国国内政治因素的制约以及国际合作的缺失使双方谈判陷入僵局,美国国内甚至出现是否会默认朝鲜有核的争论。若要真正推动朝鲜半岛无核化取得实质性进展,特朗普政府的现实方案仍是设定有限目标,并由联合国安理会制定可逆条款,约束美朝不信守承诺的行为,以国际社会的担保减少美朝互信缺失带来的消极影响,加快推进半岛无核化的和平进程。     

Investigating Treatment Effects in a Domestic Violence Experiment with Partially Missing Outcome Data

This paper considers the problem of estimating the magnitude of a treatmenteffect in a randomized experiment where the outcome is missing for somecases. The primary concern in such situations is that the distribution ofthe outcome variable may vary in important ways between individuals whoseoutcomes are observed and individuals whose outcomes are missing. Since thedata cannot be used to resolve this concern, it is necessary to take theuncertainty that is created by the missing data into account when developinginferences about the magnitude of the treatment effect. This paper considersa modeling framework that accomplishes this objective. Then, the proposedframework is applied to a study of the effectiveness of different types ofpolice responses to spouse assault incidents in Charlotte, North Carolina.     

Determination of sex for the 12th thoracic vertebra by morphometry of three-dimensional reconstructed vertebral models

Thirty-three linear measurements and two ratios were derived from 102 12th thoracic vertebrae of the Digital Korean database at the Catholic Institute for Applied Anatomy. Of 35 linear traits, 23 were sexually dimorphic. We created 23 discriminant function equations that predicted sex with 62.7-85.3% accuracy. The analysis using combinations of two factors gave higher accuracies: most equations with accuracies over 80% included at least one measurement involving the coronal diameter of the vertebral endplate. Using stepwise method of discriminant function analysis, three variables predicted sex with 90.0% accuracy: the coronal diameter of the superior endplate of the vertebral body, the ratio of anterior to middle height of the body, and the length of the left mammillary process and pedicle. Coronal dimensions of the vertebral body represented the major sex difference. These equations will help forensic discrimination of the sex of this vertebra among Koreans.     

Establishing correlation of footprints with body weight--forensic aspects

Analysis of footprints can reveal very important clues which can be used as forensic evidence in crime scene investigation. Apart from giving idea about the bare foot morphology and individualistic characteristics, the footprints are also indicative of the body size of the person. The present study is an attempt to establish the correlation between footprints and body weight of individuals. The sample for the present study consists of 50 male subjects ranging in age from 18 to 30 years. The subjects belonging to Gujjar caste were randomly taken from a village near Chandigarh city in North India. Three kinds of bilateral footprints were taken from each subject. First, the footprints with the subject's normal weight were taken, the footprints were taken when the subject holds 5 kg weight in his hands, then the footprints were taken when the subject holds 20 kg weight in his hands. In this way, the present study analyses 300 bilateral footprints obtained from 50 individuals. Nine measurements were taken on each footprint using precise and defined landmarks. The measurements of these three kinds of footprints were compared with each other and t-test was employed to see the significant variation. Some of the measurements of the footprints were altered significantly when the subject was subjected to 20 kg weight. However, there is no significant change when the subject holds 5 kg weight in his hands. Body weight was also estimated using regression method from the measurements of these three kinds of footprints. The utility of the study in offences like sexual assault, homicide, theft, burglary, mugging, stealing, shoplifting, dacoity, etc. has been discussed.     

试评韩国《集合建筑物法》第三次修订

虽然韩国《民法》中的土地和建筑物属于不同的所有权客体,但两者基本上适用相同的物权变动法理。然而,就部分所有权而言,土地和建筑物之间存在一定差异。土地可仅依当事人的意思及分割登记而实现对其一部分之所有。相比之下,建筑物却不能仅凭当事人的意思对其一部分进行分割和所有。只有当建筑物的相应部分具备独立性时,才能在将该建筑物的一部分登记为独立所有权的客体后,实现受法律保护的区分所有。上述内容所涉及的规定建筑物部分所有权的韩国法律,即为《关于集合建筑物的所有及管理的法律》。但由于韩国法院担心区分所有权的泛滥可能造成不动产所有权秩序的混乱,因此对《集合建筑物法》项下建筑物之一部分的独立性要件采严格审核原则,其结果导致区分所有权不会轻易得到认定。但是,综观区分所有的具体事例,从平衡性和比例性的角度来看,则会产生法院拒绝提供保护是否正确的疑问。正是基于对这种情况提供保护之必要性的考虑,遂有《集合建筑物法》第1条之2的新设,以便将此等情形中的一部分作为法律所保护的对象。但即使在法律修订后,韩国法院基本上仍对区分所有权的认定持消极态度。对此,试将区分所有权的保护问题与因韩国不动产物权变动登记主义造成的事实所有权的保护问题相联系,提出扩大保护之必要。     

韩国的法学教育及律师资格考试改革

韩国最近开设的法科大学院和即将实施的新的律师选拔、培养制度是韩国法律界的一大革新。在大陆法系色彩强烈的韩国法律体系里,能否成功地建立起美国式的法学院制度和律师选拔制度备受关注。尤其是韩国的法学教育以及司法改革制度,是在没有充分的协商和准备的基础上出台的,从一开始就存在很多争议,因此需要设计相应的补充方案。     

Testing the three- and four-factor models of the Korean version PCL-R as predictors of two antisocial outcomes – recidivism and risk

Psychopathy has consistently been associated with antisocial outcomes. The three- and four-factor models have been best fitted to data relating to Korean serious offenders (N?=?451), offering construct validity of the Korean Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R). However, no study has yet tested the predictive power of the Korean PCL-R to explain two different types of antisocial outcomes: (1) risk of inmates measured by correctional officers during incarceration and (2) recidivism after release. By exploring these two forms of antisociality, here we sought to establish the predictive and construct validities of the Korean version of PCL-R. We found that the deviant lifestyle (Factor 3) performed best for predicting both antisocial forms (risk and recidivism) and that the deficits in interpersonal (Factor 1) and affective (Factor 2) abilities also uniquely predicted one subtype of risk, which suggests the three-factor model is better than the four-factor model in predictions. These findings will be useful for criminal justice experts and practitioners in Korea.     

俄罗斯在解决朝鲜半岛事务中的作用论析

经过冷战后十余年的演进,俄罗斯正逐步形成一个比较稳定、成熟和较为全面的半岛政策,其积极参与朝鲜半岛事务,无论是在解决核问题、建立半岛永久和平机制,还是在半岛统一问题,抑或是在加强与半岛的经济合作与发展方面,俄罗斯都发挥了与之国情相一致的作用。     

Transnational peace building: bringing salt and light to Colombia and the USA

In 2003, Lutheran World Relief (LWR), an international relief and development NGO, began a peace-building initiative in Colombia. It facilitated the formation of a partnership between peace-sanctuary churches in Colombia and six communities of faith in the US Midwest, co-ordinated by LWR staff. This partnership, called ‘Sal y Luz’ (Salt and Light), has the goal of education and advocacy both in Colombia and in the USA. Sal y Luz represents a powerful example of transnational solidarity for peace. There are also implications and lessons of this case study for the broader field of NGO peace-building work. The Sal y Luz model of peace building brings benefits in terms of NGO accountability and effectiveness. The key innovation of the model is the means by which LWR effectively helped its US constituency to understand and become involved in peace-building work.     

国际社会对朝鲜发展援助探寻

国际发展援助对于援助国来说通常被作为实现国家利益的对外政策工具,而对于受援国来说,发展援助可以为本国经济建设和社会发展提供诸多帮助。因此,发展援助对于援助国和受援国双方的经济发展都具有相当积极的意义和作用,是一种具有互利和双赢效益的国家间经济合作方式和国际关系模式。根据朝鲜的要求及现实需要,国际社会对朝援助正由人道主义援助向发展援助转变。国际社会对朝发展援助目标是促进朝鲜经济、政治、社会发展,援助领域将更多地集中在基础设施建设、农业和提高行政管理能力等方面。在此过程中,需要解决如何筹措对朝援助巨额资金、如何提高对朝援助透明度和效率等课题。