泰国政治权力结构调整的动力、路径与困境

基于对政治利益集团权力斗争的分析,本文认为,近年来泰国政局持续动荡的根源在于政治权力结构调整所面临的转型困境。20世纪90年代以来,泰国在全球化外部风险与国内城乡发展失衡的双重压力下,形成对国家发展道路的重新选择要求。经济利益结构的改革压力,形成对"碎片化"政治权力结构的调整动力。1997年东亚金融危机爆发,成为推动泰国政治权力结构调整的契机。既得利益集团倾向于保留"碎片化"格局的改良方案,但代表新资本集团的他信派系倾向于政治改革,要求建构由其主导的"层级式"政治权力结构。他信派系得益于新资本集团与农民群体的政治联合,在"政治权力结构—经济利益结构"大循环调整过程中占据优势;既得利益集团得益于国王权威的支持,在"政治权力结构—政治文化传统"小循环调整过程中掌握主动。双方在政治权力结构的调整过程中相互制衡,从而使得泰国的政治秩序迟迟未能重建。     

Negotiating constitutions for political unions

This paper provides a cradle-to-grave model of political merger between two states and highlights the role of cross-border disparities in material and technological endowments in state formation. This issue has not received adequate theoretical attention in the existing scholarship that has largely focussed on factors like defence, trade, and public goods provision. In this paper, merger negotiations are modelled using a bilateral bargaining model with inside options and contest as an outside option. It is shown that the threat of contest constrains the set of mutually acceptable taxes and, more importantly, it provides stability to the federal constitution by making the punishment strategy in the secession rule credible. The existence of negotiated and contested constitutional merger agreements that are path dependent but time-consistent is shown. Also, the rent extracted by the advanced province in the union for transferring technology to the backward province is shown to be increasing in the complexity of technology but bounded from above. Finally, the impact of demographic heterogeneity on the feasibility of inter-state mergers is discussed.     

Clans,politics and organized crime in Central Asia

This paper investigates the role of transnational organized crime in the democratisation process in the Central Asian area. It examines the inherent connections that exist between the leading tribal families, political elites and organized crime, and explores how criminal networks have proliferated in society and consequently in politics. The complete absence of a ruling élite and striking economic issues left unsolved were the legacy that Soviet rule would leave to the newly independent Central Asian Republics. After the fall of the former Soviet Union other, more profitable forms of transnational organized crime flourished. According to the official statistics of the UNODC and the American State Department, 92% of the world’s heroin is produced in Afghanistan. Of this, around 65% is smuggled into Europe and America along the Silk Road, and therefore through the five Central Asian Republics and Russia. High levels of corruption in Central Asia heavily affect political and economic life. The economies of the region have progressively become dominated by criminal activity with smuggling, trafficking and other activities linked to transnational organized crime as the major source of income. Central Asia’s strategic location makes this a global security concern.

Race,Partisanship, and Political Trust Following <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bush versus Gore</Emphasis> (2000)

In contrast to what we know about the sources of political trust among whites, recent research suggests that political mistrust among blacks indicates discontent with the political system. The current study adds to research investigating racial differences in political trust by examining racial differences in the influence of the 2000 United States presidential election on political trust. Specifically, I test for whether whites and blacks adjusted their trust in government in response to the Supreme Court’s decision in Bush versus Gore (2000) and whether the influence of the Court’s decision on trust was dependent on partisan identification. The findings indicate that blacks perceived the Court’s decision as illegitimate, reinforcing their mistrust in their political system.

Explaining Turnout Decline in Britain, 1964–2005: Party Identification and the Political Context

Turnout decline in Britain is greater than it first appears since changes in the social composition of the electorate have had a positive impact on turnout. This paper finds that whereas a weakening in the strength of party identification is associated with the long-term decline, the political context influences short-term variation. Partisan dealignment is also changing the dynamics of the determinants of turnout. Since non-identifiers are more strongly influenced by the political context than strong identifiers, and there are now more non-identifiers than previously, the political context is becoming a more important factor in determining whether people vote or not.

创新体制从源头上预防和治理腐败

“一把手”腐败、用人腐败、司法腐败、公贿和行政腐败等政治领域腐败现象日益突出。制度反腐败的重点应当从经济领域转向政治领域,通过继续推动政治体制改革与创新从源头上预防和治理腐败。其中,党政领导体制改革、干部人事制度改革、司法体制改革、政府间管理体制改革和行政管理体制改革在遏止政治和行政腐败方面具有特别重要的意义。     

入世对大学生政治思想的负面影响与马克思主义理论课改革

入世在有力促进我国各个领域积极变化的同时,也在我国大学生政治思想上造成了政治信念困惑、政治理想混乱、政治观念西化等负面影响.高校马克思主义理论课教学的弊端却使其对大学生政治思想的影响日渐衰微.只有加强马克思主义理论课改革力度,治愈自身的顽疾,提高教育教学质量,才能发挥出矫正大学生政治思想偏颇的应有功能.     

Voting at 16: Turnout and the quality of vote choice

Critics of giving citizens under 18 the right to vote argue that such teenagers lack the ability and motivation to participate effectively in elections. If this argument is true, lowering the voting age would have negative consequences for the quality of democracy. We test the argument using survey data from Austria, the only European country with a voting age of 16 in nation-wide elections. While the turnout levels of young people under 18 are relatively low, their failure to vote cannot be explained by a lower ability or motivation to participate. In addition, the quality of these citizens' choices is similar to that of older voters, so they do cast votes in ways that enable their interests to be represented equally well. These results are encouraging for supporters of a lower voting age.     

The electoral consequences of voter ignorance

A great deal of research has suggested that scholarly and popular concerns about low levels of citizen political knowledge are exaggerated. One implication of that research is that political history would have unfolded just as it did even if electorates had been more politically informed. This paper presents evidence that counters these claims, showing an infusion of electorally relevant information in twenty-seven democracies would have likely led to a lot of vote “switching”, ultimately changing the composition of many governments. The paper also directly and systematically examines what we might call the “enlightened natural constituency” hypothesis, which expects lower-income citizens to vote disproportionately for left parties once armed with more political knowledge. While the basic argument about how political ignorance disproportionately affects the left’s natural constituency is not new, the hypothesis has thus far not been tested. The analysis provides provisional support for the hypothesis.     

台湾社会阶层关系现状及其对政局的影响

近年来台湾的社会阶层结构和阶层关系出现了一些新变化。当前台湾社会阶层关系的基本特征表现为:"结构化"特征最为明显,"中产化"特征并未改变,"碎片化"特征越来越明显,尚未发展到"断裂化"的程度。上个世纪90年代以来经济的恶化,制度和政策的不合理,以及政治上的蓝绿恶斗,都是影响到台湾社会关系复杂化的主要因素。而社会阶层关系会对台湾政治体系和政治过程、选举政治生态和政党的政策走向、民众的政治意识、政治倾向和政治参与都产生一定的影响。