世界大变局与中美日三国战略选择

在世界大变局中,战后国际格局重大变化的主要标志是“世界老二”易位。苏联、日本皆不例外;21世纪以来欧盟也由盛转衰。未来国际格局可能有三种前景:1.中美两极对抗体制;2.中美竞争合作的“两极多元体制”;3.世界各大力量多元并存,构建多元一体的人类命运共同体。这要看世界潮流是走向和平多边主义还是暴力多边主义。中国实现伟大复兴后的战略选择是“济弱扶倾”,为世界可持续发展与可持续安全做贡献。日本面临的战略选择是:继续在《日本国宪法》下走和平发展道路,还是修改宪法,成为“能战国家”的一员,加入暴力强权的多边主义?坚持开放的地区主义与国际协调,还是搞排他经济集团,远交近攻,以中国为竞争对手?利用中美对立从中渔利,还是促进中美协调而避免在中美之间“选边站”?妥善处理中日两国围绕钓鱼岛归属认知争议和台湾问题,还是重走历史老路?囿于冷战思维和传统权力政治的现实主义决策逻辑,同中国搞战略对抗,还是树立共同、综合、合作、可持续安全的新安全观,与中国加强合作?这些战略选择将关乎未来30年的中日关系。     

略论21世纪的世界大趋势

本世纪最后10年发生了苏联解体、海湾战争、科索沃、危机、南斯拉夫分裂、东南亚金融危机、欧洲统一、北约东扩、美日安全同盟再定义等全球性事件,这些事件标志着冷战时代的结束.21世纪,世界政治经济形势将呈现全球化趋势加强、世界经济欣欣向荣的局面,世界和平仍可确保.     

冷战结束后北美的马克思主义研究

冷战结束后,北美马克思主义研究领域涌现出许多新学派.在总结苏东剧变教训的基础上,这些学派大多认为马克思主义和社会主义没有"死亡",资本主义并不是历史的终结,并对马克思主义的未来发展方向和社会主义的未来发展道路进行了积极的探索,其中以分析的马克思主义、生态主义的马克思主义和市场社会主义的相关观点最具代表性.     

Russia–EU relations at a crossroads: preventing a new Cold War in a polycentric world

In the past year, the Ukrainian crisis has generated an international discussion about a ‘new Cold War’. This article looks into the likelihood of such a scenario and makes suggestions of how it may be precluded. The course of events depends on whether the current model of globalization can be reversed. This would mean not only a change in the current structure of the global economy, but its dismantling. However, it is obvious that for most European and other states, the risks associated with such a policy outweigh potential geopolitical and economic benefits. The international order is in a state of flux. High risks are unacceptable when governments or nations pursue their interests in a stable environment. But when the balance of power shifts substantially, as it has now, the perception of risk threshold also begins to change. European history has shown that large-scale transformations in international relations in most cases triggered tension and violence, caused by rising demands of ascending powers and by resistance of those who were challenged. In the twenty-first century, the polycentric structure of the world provides an opportunity to achieve a new lasting global settlement, and to put an end to the current period of increasing tension.     

Conjuring up the next attack: the future-orientedness of terror and the counterterrorist imagination

Although terrorism is widely understood to be the politically motivated creation of fear by means of violence in a target group, the nature of that fear is seldom explained or even considered. The present article attempts to close that gap by proposing a definition of terror as the apprehension of (more) violence to come. Because every terrorist act is perceived to be part of a potential series, terror is oriented towards the future and involves the imaginary anticipation of prospective events. On the basis of this definition, I will examine the problematical role of counterterrorist discourse. As the statements of public officials and security experts in the run-up to, and during, the “War on Terror” demonstrate, the peculiar dynamic of terror is, seemingly paradoxically, reinforced by counterterrorist rhetoric. With its insistence on the escalatory nature of terrorist violence and its repeated prediction of even worse attacks, counterterrorism contributes to the evocation of terror in the sense proposed here.     

Identification of Missing Norwegian World War II Soldiers,in Karelia Russia

This article presents the multidisciplinary effort in trying to identify the skeletal remains of 100 Norwegian soldiers serving in the German army, killed in Karelia Russia in 1944, from the recovery of the remains through the final identification using DNA. Of the 150 bone samples sent for DNA testing, 93 DNA profiles were obtained relating to 57 unique individuals. The relatives could not be directly contacted as the soldiers were considered as traitors to Norway; therefore, only 45 reference samples, relating to 42 cases of the missing, were donated. DNA matches for 14 soldiers and 12 additional body part re‐associations for these individuals were found. Another 24 bone samples were re‐associated with 16 individuals, but no familial match was found. More than six decades after the end of WWII, DNA analysis can significantly contribute to the identification of the remains.     

社会心理学与精神分析学及其后现代转向

社会心理学的孕育、产生和发展过程,得益于许多学科或知识领域的推动。尤其值得注意的是,它首先与现代精神分析学及作为其重要知识来源之一的精神病学之间存在着深刻的不解之缘。精神分析学在自身发展过程中的每一次重大进展都会对社会心理学的理论和方法产生不同的影响。精神分析学在20世纪下半叶发生的后现代转向,也或早或晚地涉入到社会心理学有关领域的发展中。其中一个重要结果就是后现代社会心理学的出现。后现代精神分析学既从心理学理论层面又从哲学认识论和方法论层面提供了孕育后现代社会心理学的动因。     

Argentine Nacionalismo before Perón: The Case of the Alianza de la Juventud Nacionalista, 1937–c. 1943

As the 1930s moved towards their close, a new generation of young men began to dominate the political wing of a generally more radical and assertive Argentine Nacionalismo, replacing the old guard that had found its inspiration in General José F. Uriburu and the regime he had led between September 1930 and February 1932. The Alianza de la Juventud Nacionalista, set up in September 1937, was the most important nacionalista faction of the period. It shared with other nacionalista factions the rejection of liberalism, parliamentary democracy and communism, but in contrast to the elitist and anti-popular orientation of earlier organisations, it aggressively tried to enlist popular support by portraying itself as a group genuinely concerned about the needs of the masses. The Alianza also distanced itself from the glorification of nineteenth-century Argentina, another hallmark of previous groups. Although it failed in its efforts to build up a significant following, the analysis nevertheless demonstrates that the organisation can be described as a genuinely fascist movement.     

太平洋战争期间日本对东南亚的贸易统制研究

1941年日本在发动太平洋战争的同时,开始对东南亚地区实行贸易统制政策,采取政府出台相关政策、军队和企业具体实施的方针,通过滥发军票等方式,以较低的价格进口东南亚各地的重要资源。日本的贸易统制政策虽然在短期内使日本与东南亚各地之间的贸易急剧增长,但却严重破坏了东南亚各地的产业结构和对外贸易,给东南亚各国造成巨大损失。