From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2010 British general election

This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.     

The second-order election model revisited: An experimental test of vote choices in European Parliament elections

This paper examines the micro-foundations of the second-order elections model of European Parliament (EP) elections. We extend the existing literature in several ways. First, we propose an individual-level model of voting behaviour in second-order elections. Second, we present the first study using experimental methods to test the predictions of the second-order model, allowing us to test the individual-level propositions about vote choice in a controlled environment. Importantly, we also examine the conditioning effect of information on the ‘second-order’ nature of voting behaviour in EP elections. Our findings show that while voters base their EP vote choices primarily on domestic preferences, those who are given additional information about the European integration dimension are also more likely to vote on this basis.     

Subnational electoral regimes and crisis recovery in Argentina and Mexico

The confluence of Latin America's volatile economic development patterns and transition to democracy has given rise to a proliferation of work on the national-level political causes and consequences of economic shocks and recovery rates. We explore the subnational electoral determinants of crisis recovery through analysis of growth rates in Mexico's thirty-one states and Argentina's twenty-three provinces following their economic declines of 2000–2002. Consistent with a theory that views intra-national variations in democracy as critical to understanding broader development patterns, we find that subnational electoral “regimes” significantly affect provincial recovery rates. Provinces that have an established electoral legitimacy prior to the onset of an economic shock, and those in which the governor enjoyed a substantial margin of victory, had significantly stronger recovery rates than those provinces stuck in a subnational regime transition with a sitting executive who lacked any claim to an electoral mandate.     

Electoral institutions and campaigning in comparative perspective: Electioneering in European Parliament elections

This article develops and tests a number of competing expectations (institutional, party and individual) about what influenced the campaign activity of individual parliamentary candidates for the 2004 European Parliament elections. The principal interest is in the effects of variations in the design of electoral institutions across the Member States of the European Union. Based on the analysis, it is argued that an important distinction needs to be made between campaign effort and campaign goals, with electoral institutional factors having a more significant role over the latter.     

新加坡2010年经济、政治、外交形势回顾与展望

本文对2010年新加坡国内经济、政治和外交做简单回顾。2010年,在全球经济复苏的良好环境下,新加坡的经济增长创其建国以来历史新高,是全球经济增长最快的国家;政治上,新加坡政府推出一系列措施确保社会稳定,为即将来临的总统和国会大选做好充足准备;在外交上,与马来西亚的关系得到新突破,与中国合作关系向多元发展。此外,本文还对2010年中国国内有关新加坡的学术研究成果进行简单介绍。     

Mafia-Related Prejudice and the Rise of Italian Americans in the United States

Italian immigrants to the United States and their offspring have long been the target of prejudicial accusations concerning their allegedly prominent role in criminal activities. This article investigates the influence of such an ethnic bias on their political ascent. Although politicians of Italian descent have benefitted from connections to gangsters and racketeers, especially in the Prohibition years, underworld-related charges have for the most part limited their political success because they have undermined voters' trust in candidates of Italian ancestry. The Mafia-connection stereotype gained momentum in the aftermath of the revelations of the Kefauver Committee in the early 1950s. However, it continued to have significant influence on the election campaigns of Italian Americans at least until Geraldine Ferraro's 1992 bid for the US Senate. Despite the progressive assimilation of Italian Americans, the perception of members of this ethnic group as potential criminals has persisted, and still haunts politicians of Italian extraction. Significantly, even Italian-American candidates have recently resorted to the Mafia prejudice to discredit fellow ethnic opponents.     

PIGS or not? Economic voting in Southern Europe

Economic voting has been little studied in the nations of Southern Europe. Here we examine economic voting in the Southern European countries of Portugal, Italy, Spain, and Greece – the PIGS. Through the analysis of a large, ten European nation survey pool, we establish that economic voting exists in the PIGS, with a strength that significantly exceeds that in non-PIGS of Northern Europe. The explanation for such a difference, we suggest, lies in the generally less complex governing coalitions and the poorer economic performance that characterize these Southern European nations. This relatively greater strength of the economic vote in the PIGS implies their electorates will hold government tightly accountable for management of the ongoing economic crises they face.     

略论新加坡鞭刑制度的法律基础

新加坡鞭刑继承自殖民地时期刑罚,受穆斯林习惯法影响,符合法的继承规律,没有违反本国宪法规定。目前尚无反酷刑公约或条约能约束新加坡鞭刑,而且其也不与现行反酷刑公约或条约、国际习惯法、法的一般原则相冲突。新加坡鞭刑不是法律意义上的酷刑,宽容死刑的态度使这一指责更显苍白。另外,普通刑罚在新加坡面临着巨大的困境,主刑失效、犯罪形势严峻等因素将新加坡刑罚推向目的刑主义。     

浅析新加坡的公共外交

作为一种新的外交形式,公共外交在国际关系中发挥着越来越重要的作用。新加坡自独立以来,在对外关系方面取得了显著的成果,近年来更是重视公共外交,使公共外交在其对外战略中发挥着特殊作用。通过开展公共外交,新加坡这一小国的国际形象进一步得到改善,国际影响力也得到提升。但也由于小国的限制,新加坡的公共外交也存在着巨大局限。     

2011年新加坡:政治、经济与外交

2011年,新加坡顺利举行国会大选和总统大选,完成新老领导班子交接,但是大选结果也凸显了民众对政府的不满,赢回民心是新一届政府的首要任务。在经济方面,新加坡经济增长步伐整体放缓,政府逐步出台系列措施进行经济重整,给长期依赖外来劳动力的行业带来阵痛。在外交上,新加坡继续加强与周边国家的良好关系,加深与中美的双边经贸、安全防务等领域的合作,积极推动中美在亚洲地区良性合作的关系。最后,本文对2011年境内外出版的关于新加坡的中文学术研究成果进行简要回顾与介绍。