《美国-新加坡自由贸易协定》及其影响

谈判过程历时两年半之久、今年1月1日正式生效的<美国-新加坡自由贸易协定>不仅是当代双边自由贸易协定的新代表,而且在海关程序、知识产权保护、政府采购、资金流动控制等诸多方面的规定都有所创新和突破,势必会对未来的同类协定产生影响.它的产生与中国有着密不可分的关系,而它的实施也同样会对中国、东盟、亚太地区乃至全球的未来贸易发展产生重要影响.     

新加坡对外经济关系的新格局

近年来,新加坡的外经济关系呈现出新的格局性变化。本文拟就新加坡与其他东盟国家、美、日、欧、澳、新、中国大陆、香港、台湾、韩国、印度等的经济关系作一分析。     

关于高薪养廉问题的一场对垒——新加坡《部长与高级公务员薪金标准白皮书》解析

1994年10月,新加坡政府向国会提交了<以具竞争性薪金建立贤能廉洁政府--部长与高级公务员薪金标准白皮书>(以下简称<白皮书>),其基本思路是高级公务员的薪金与企业界的薪金标准挂钩,旨在通过较大幅度地提高高级公务员的薪金标准,稳住政府人员的优质结构,保证政府总体行为的廉洁高效.尽管政府方面为此作了大量的宣传论证工作,但在政府高官内部,意见也不十分一致.在国会方面,不论是态度温和的间接型,还是措辞激烈的直接型,反对意见几乎众口一词.通过本文论述,意在说明高薪养廉是个十分复杂的问题,即使是在新加坡对高薪养廉亦有不同的视角.     

新加坡公务员廉政制度建设及其借鉴意义

新加坡政府公务员制度建立时间并不长,但在廉政建设方面成效卓著。新加坡公务员的廉政制度从公务员的聘任制、公务员制度中廉政要求的法律化、健全的监督机制、高薪养廉式的福利待遇等方面都为我国国家公务员制度建设提供了借鉴意义。     

A Political Economy Model of Workers Representation: The Case of Union Elections in Spain

In this article we present a political economy model to analyse the effects of union elections. Union elections are the prerequisite for participating in collective bargaining and they are a unique Spanish institution for union recognition. We apply standard political economy assumptions to model the union elections in order to understand their influence on the dynamics of the unemployment rate. Although union elections give the right to vote to virtually all workers, we show that insider power exists and that it introduces a hysteresis effect on the unemployment rate. In addition, the model shows how the date of the union elections can amplify the business cycle. An empirical analysis confirms the main predictions of the model.JEL Classification: K31, J51, E24     

The electoral victory of the NPD in Saxony and the prospects for future extreme-right success in German elections

ABSTRACT

Largely because of Germany's traumatic experience of National Socialism, German extreme right-wing parties have remained a marginal post-war political phenomenon. The spectacular electoral victory of the Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands (NPD) in the Saxon parliamentary elections of September 2004 (9.2 per cent of the vote) nurtured the fear that a far-right party could establish itself at the national level. Backes explains the election victory by relating it to a set of Saxon and Eastern German circumstances. He demonstrates that unfavourable conditions, which have so far prevented the establishment of extreme right-wing parties at the national level, still prevail. Against this background, he shows that the NPD's capacity for taking advantage of advantageous conditions (like economic problems and xenophobia, rampant in some places) reaches its limits very quickly.     

Markets vs. polls as election predictors: An historical assessment

Prediction markets have drawn considerable attention in recent years as a tool for forecasting elections. But how accurate are they? Do they outperform the polls, as some scholars argue? Do prices in election markets carry information beyond the horserace in the latest polls? This paper assesses the accuracy of US presidential election betting markets in years before and after opinion polling was introduced. Our results are provocative. First, we find that market prices are far better predictors in the period without polls than when polls were available. Second, we find that market prices of the pre-poll era predicted elections almost on par with polls following the introduction of scientific polling. Finally, when we have both market prices and polls, prices add nothing to election prediction beyond polls. To be sure, early election markets were (surprisingly) good at extracting campaign information without scientific polling to guide them. For more recent markets, candidate prices largely follow the polls.     

Strategic voting and effective representation thresholds: Evidence from three Spanish general elections

The extent of strategic voting in the Spanish general elections of 2000, 2004 and 2008 is estimated using a new measure of strategic incentives suitable for proportional representation systems that avoids some of the problems associated with lagged variables. Strategic behaviour increased from 12 to 33 per cent of the electoral base of the United Left Party, the major victim of strategic defection. This estimate is a conservative one as elite mobilisation is controlled for in the constituencies, which is unusual in the literature on strategic voting that uses regression‐based methods.     

Economic voting in a crisis: The Irish election of 2011

The paper explores a question raised by the 2011 Irish election, which saw an almost unprecedented decline in support for a major governing party after an economic collapse that necessitated an ECB/IMF ‘bailout’. This seems a classic case of ‘economic voting’ in which a government is punished for incompetent performance. How did the government lose this support: gradually, as successive economic indicators appeared negative, or dramatically, following major shocks? The evidence points to losses at two critical junctures. This is consistent with an interpretation of the link between economics and politics that allows for qualitative judgements by voters in assigning credit and blame for economic performance.     

Institutional exclusion as a destabilizing factor: the mass unrest of 1 July 2008 in Mongolia

The paper discusses the 1 July 2008 mass protest in Mongolia. This event has no precedent in Mongolian history and represents a challenge for the social sciences as neither scholars nor political leaders predicted or even admitted its eventuality. Several forms of exclusion – economic, social and institutional – are considered as its potential source. It is argued that the theory of institutional exclusion allows making better sense of the situation. Institutional exclusion means the alienation of ordinary people from government and their inability to rely on the law and official procedures when being engaged in everyday activities. Two sources of primary data inform the analysis: a series of structured interviews with the protesters (N?=?20) and a collection of visual records made during the unrest (N?=?244). The data were processed using methods of both qualitative and quantitative content analysis.