战略预期与小国挑战周边大国的策略选择——以菲、越两国南海制华政策(2009~2019)为例

文章提出了后冷战时期战略预期导向下小国(主动)挑战周边大国策略选择的分析框架。战略预期有助于小国明确其挑战周边大国“源动力”的强弱,以及预判具备哪些必要条件才能相对成功地挑战周边大国。小国享有大国竞争赋予的重要战略空间,其面对的冲突性议题不是周边大国的战略重点,采取迫使和诱使周边大国保持战略克制的策略,这些对小国则至关重要。在多个小国挑战同一周边大国时,“源动力”相对强烈的小国,不同的战略预期将催生其差异明显的策略模式。根据大国竞争的强度与周边大国“求稳”偏好的水平,此类小国的战略预期可以依次分解为审慎战略预期、进取性战略预期和修正后战略预期;相应的策略选择为侧重温和软制衡或侧重强硬软制衡的对冲、侧重准硬制衡的对冲或硬制衡以及四种潜在的策略修正。菲律宾和越南2009~2019年南海制华政策的演变验证了这一逻辑。掌控南海敏感争议海域新的油气开发格局、积极应对司法化趋势并探索更加包容的争端解决方案,是中国深度塑造菲、越两国南海战略预期的重要着力点。     

The Commonwealth,Apartheid, and the Role of Micro-states

In the 1980s, the debate surrounding South Africa apartheid consumed the Commonwealth. While superficially this discussion might appear to have had little relevance to the interests of micro and small state members of the Commonwealth, the behemothic nature of apartheid presented significant challenges to such states. This article attempts to assess the varied ways in which South African apartheid affected the diplomatic strategies of micro-states within the political landscape of the Commonwealth, and how it could be perceived as both a hindrance to their agendas, as well a potential tool in the fight to amplify their voices. Micro-states used the egalitarian structure of the Commonwealth and combined it with the prominence of apartheid in international debate to both elevate their status and even to garner support for their own personal concerns. Apartheid’s reframing of the international conversation had broad reverberations which affected Commonwealth responses to a variety of seemingly disparate issues. This culminated in the ejection of Fiji from the Commonwealth in the aftermath of the 1987 coup due to concerns over racial discrimination, emblematising the all-pervasive nature of the apartheid debate within the Commonwealth.     

Backsliding and Reversal: The J Curve Revisited

In this article we argue that democratic transitions can reverse, oscillate, or simply stall. These transitions are exemplified in the different types of states we categorize. We construct a model of stability vs openness using three dimensions of stateness, namely authority, legitimacy, and capacity. With the additional application of a six-fold typology of states, we offer a robust analytical framework with which to identify and explain changes in state status. Our construct of stability and openness leads to a novel development of a global conflict damage index, which is built upon conflict risk, but considers a state’s capacity to deal with conflict. The paper concludes with implications for policy and the application of the model to conflict prediction when states under go transition.     

First calculations of the total output of Latvia and Lithuania in the 1920s: a comparison

The contemporary system of national accounts (SNA) framework is used to compare the methodologies and to adjust the findings to allow for cross-country comparisons of the very first calculations of the total economic output of Lithuania in 1924 by Albinas Rimka (1886–1944) and of Latvia in 1925 by Alfrēds Ceihners (1899–1987). Ceihners’ notion of national income corresponds to the SNA concept of gross national income (GNI), while Rimka measured net national income (NNI). Rimka’s estimate has a downward bias, because he applied a fixed capital depreciation rate that was too high and did not include the value of noncommercial public sector services.     

Extreme-right parties in contemporary Estonia

Kasekamp examines extreme-right political parties (ERPs) in Estonia since the restoration of independence in 1991. While nationalist sentiments have been widespread and political discourse has been dominated by the centre right, ERPs have not been successful. It is possible to identify two distinct generations of ERPs in Estonia with two different programmatic emphases: the first of 1992–8 could be labelled ‘anti-Soviet’; the second generation beginning in 1999 focuses on opposition to the European Union (EU) and as such has more in common with the ERPs in Western Europe than the first generation. Following Roger Eatwell’s model for the political breakthrough of ERPs, Kasekamp concludes that conducive conditions do not exist at present for such a breakthrough in Estonia, although opposition to the EU offers notable potential for future mobilization.     

日本"小小善意"运动对中国青少年德育的启示

日本“小小善意”运动采用灵活的方式，强调学校、家庭、社会的密切配合，注重培养人与人、人与自然的和谐相处，侧重“善意”行为的强化和内化，其内容具体、易于接受，很好的实现了对青少年进行思想品德教育的目标。其有效经验可以为改进我国青少年思想道德教育现状提供有益的借鉴和启示。     

简述美国区域经济的均衡政策及启示

本文分析了２０ 世纪３０ 年代的美国区域经济的失衡状况，运转特征及负面效应，介绍了联邦政府积极利用财政手段进行调控的七条均衡政策，论述了当代中国在加快开发落后地区时值得借鉴的四条重要启示     

福利社会与发展中的斯堪的纳维亚福利国家

欧洲各国致力于福利国家的建设已逾百年,经历了两次世界大战.各国在社会投入水平和福利机构方面的巨大差异至今仍在,但是各国对于福利社会的可持续性的认可和公众对福利社会的高度承诺则是基本一致的.各福利社会有来自各方面的维系:中央政府或地方政府、公司企业、家庭和自发组织的机构.不同的福利社会体系与它们之间的关系长期以来对欧洲各福利国家有着不同的意义,形成了具有不同特点的福利制度.在20世纪最后十年里重建福利国家的痛苦过程中,经济增长和社会发展之间的关系一直是整个斯堪的纳维亚地区社会问题的争论热点.然而到目前为止,效率与平等之间的冲突大多得到了解决,在北欧五国都保持了福利政策的稳定.该地区独特的历史经验并不排斥发展中国家的政府和机构为了发展福利事业而积极推行普及政策所做出的努力.     

PARENTAL REACTION TO THE DISABLED CHILD:

The special needs child demands adept and flexible care. This becomes harder to provide when the child resides in two homes or when the parents are in conflict about the child's diagnosis. To secure effective intervention, parents must become mini-experts in their child's condition, advocating tirelessly to secure necessary educational, financial, and medical assistance. These parents, confronted with the reality of their child's diagnosis, must also face the reality of a different future than the one they had imagined for their child and themselves. This can trigger a complex and fluid grieving process that is different for every parent. Understanding the role of grief in custody proceedings can provide a useful lens for viewing the vastly dissimilar opinions these parents often present. Failing to recognize the distorting effect of grief places family law professionals at a distinct disadvantage in dealing with these complex issues.     

以小生命融入文化和自然的大生命——钱穆“人生论”初探

近代以来,虽然中国思想界对传统文化的主导倾向是批判和决裂,但仍然有一些思想家对中华文化怀抱着"温情与敬意",国学大师钱穆就是其中杰出的代表之一.在<晚学盲言>等论著中,钱穆以中西人生观比较为基本线索,以"士"(知识分子)为传统人生观的主要代表,以关于大生命与小生命、心世界与物世界、天与人关系的阐发为中心,全面、深刻地概括了中国文化的理想和精华,成为当今中华传统人生观复兴,并与国外人生观积极因素相结合的先驱.