中日韩自贸区的可行性与经济周期规律

自2002年中日韩自由贸易区的构想提出以来,学界和决策部门对其建立的可行性仍持怀疑态度。本研究率先采用惩罚性样条滤波（Penalized Spline Filter）对中日韩实际产出变量进行分解,计算了周期项的相关系数和滚动相关性并检验了格兰杰因果关系,探讨建立三国自贸区的可行性。实证研究结果表明：中日、中韩间同期相关度低,但日韩间具有显著的同期相关性,并自1998年趋强,三者之间无格兰杰因果关系。因此,笔者认为从经济周期的协动性角度来看,建立中日韩自由贸易区的时机尚未成熟。建议可以先尝试建立日韩自由贸易区,逐步推进中日韩自贸区进程。     

也谈南海断续线的法律性质

南海断续线的法律性质对于澄清南海问题的实质及问题的解决具有重要意义。综合各种因素考虑,其作为岛屿(礁)归属线的性质可以确证,而海上国界线、历史性水域线及历史性权利线等表述均存在瑕疵,为巩固我国对线内水域的权利主张,除岛屿(礁)归属线外,将其同时界定为可管辖水域线较为可取。     

Trends and mechanisms of corruption in South Korea

Corruption remains one of the key obstacles to democratization and good governance. Given the nature of the subject, corruption is notoriously difficult to study. International comparisons and rankings of good governance such as the World Bank World Governance Indicators, the Bertelsmann Sustainable Governance Index, or Transparency International's Global Corruption Index are very useful for providing the big picture on corruption. To understand trends and mechanisms of corruption, however, it is necessary to conduct case studies on both successful and failed cases of anti-corruption policies. This paper investigates the successes and challenges of the fight against corruption in South Korea since the beginning of democratization in 1987. The investigation shows that Korea has generally been successful in controlling corruption. The paper argues that the remaining problems can be largely explained by the legacy of authoritarian rule and the undermining of state autonomy through the concentration of economic power.     

社会管理创新与社区青年工作发展路径探析——以广州市兴华街兴青年项目为例

青年是社会管理创新的参与者和受益者,创新社会管理格局应重视青年工作,调动一切有利于青年发展、社会和谐的积极因素。基层社区经过一年多的实践,探索以下三条路径引导青年参与和服务社会:有效配置资源、实现资源整合、聚焦青年发展;党建创新、多方合力、青年服务项目成果初现;青年微组织带动、多元主体共建共享、创新社会服务模式。借此努力形成社区关爱青年,青年服务社会格局。     

Playing the fool in the territory of memory: Jaan Kross' autobiographical fictions of the twentieth century

A study was conducted among young Latvians to test the effects of different conceptualizations of Latvian national identity on group beliefs and on attitudes towards Russians. It was hypothesized that exposure to inclusive discourse presenting Latvia as a multicultural society rather than an ethnic homeland would have a direct negative effect on feelings of vulnerability, injustice, distrust, superiority and helplessness with regard to the Latvian nation and a positive effect on attitudes towards Russians. The hypothesis was tested in one survey study conducted in Riga among ethnic Latvians (N?=?150).     

北京青年发展状况调查报告

为推动北京青少年工作的创新发展,全面深入跟踪研究北京青少年的发展动态,对北京青年群体开展了大规模的青年发展状况调研活动。调查涉及个人需求、社会需求、"十二五"与青年等多个层面,个人需求涉及到知识文化诉求、高质量高层次的闲暇生活、择业取向;社会需求涉及到社会组织认可、政治民主评价、媒体导向、理想信仰、社会和谐、社会保障、择偶观等。根据调查数据及分析,文化需求成为青少年发展不可规避的主要问题,在"十二五"期间,对于作为时代先锐和中坚力量的青少年,应对其各种需求深入了解,并切实提出一些具有借鉴意义的政策措施。     

社会转型期青年的宗教需求研究——广州青年的宗教信仰调查分析

通过对广州青年的宗教信仰进行实证调查,发现广州青年宗教活动参与制度化程度较低;不同年龄,不同性别,是否独生子女,其信教的动机不同;家庭环境是信教青年了解、皈依宗教的最重要途径。宗教让信教青年获得心灵的宁静、更明确的人生目标,但对幸福感影响不明显。研究建议,关注青年的情感需求,用"无私的爱"进一步拉近共青团组织与青年的距离,用分类引导的手法切实提升青年工作实效。     

“孟不印尼”合作倡议及其发展趋势

"孟不印尼"(BBIN)合作倡议是由印度发起的一个南亚东北部次区域合作倡议。目的是绕开长期被印巴矛盾拖累的南盟,通过在印度东部、孟加拉国、尼泊尔和不丹之间建立一个涉及公路、铁路、内河运输、航空和电力网络的次区域联通体系,推动南亚东部次区域一体化进程。目前,"孟不印尼"倡议的里程碑"机动车协议"已经达成但尚未完全生效。铁路联通协议开始讨论并已有前期收获,其他领域尚未进入正式谈判阶段。"孟不印尼"合作倡议体现了相关国家和地区对互联互通的渴望与要求,符合该地区的长远利益。印度试图借此解决其东北部的交通瓶颈问题,巩固其南亚交通枢纽的地位,并试图在更大地理范围内扩大印度的地缘优势。但是,这一倡议受到印度国家能力的限制以及与其他成员国之间复杂关系的影响。一方面,印度东部地区经济发展水平低下,不足以成为吸引周边国家的经济发动机。另一方面,BBIN国家经济发展水平相近,经济结构高度相似,经济互补性有限。成员国从BBIN倡议中获得的潜在收益,可能会不如预期,将挫伤相关国家的积极性。再加上资金保障不力、管理机制对接困难,BBIN的推进将会比较困难。     

POLICIES OF LAST RESORT FOR DEALING WITH NORTH KOREA’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAMME

This paper analyzes the policy remedies for dealing with North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile programs. After six nuclear tests and three recent successful ICBM tests, North Korea is close to miniaturizing nuclear warheads and establishing a reliable delivery system, thus achieving a much-feared nuclear weapons capability. In defiance of the extraordinarily tough U.N. Security Council resolutions, Pyongyang persists in developing nuclear weapons. North Korea's nuclear weapons program already has exceeded the strategic patience, of the U.S.-ROK alliance. Harsher policy options to deal with the DPRK nuclear weapons are imperative. Several drastic options, including severe sanctions, preventive bombing, nuclear armament of South Korea, are evaluated in the final round of engagement policy on guaranteeing nonaggression and a peace agreement with Pyongyang.     

Youth Gang Members in Rio de Janeiro: The Face of a ‘Lost Generation’ in an Age of Fear and Mistrust

This article analyses the relationship between stigmatisation, violence and marginality, and its limits to social justice and citizenship. It involves a critical reflection on the way groups living in ‘a social and symbolical shade’ are represented and treated by governments and their institutions, and the way such practices reinforce a cycle of socio‐symbolical marginality and the limits to life in the city. The article will explore the findings of a research within drug gangs in which I have been involved ( Observatório de Favelas, 2006 ; Silva et al., 2009 and, Silva and Urani, 2002 ), and my own research on violence, urban marginality and stigmatisation ( Fernandes, 2009, 2012 ).