Die Deutschen und die Türkeifrage: eine Analyse der Einstellungen zum Antrag der Türkei auf Mitgliedschaft in der Europäischen Union

In this paper, I examine the sources of support for Turkey’s EU-entry in the German public. I propose several models and explore their respective empirical validity using survey data gathered in May and June 2005. The analysis shows that neither trust in the federal government nor evaluations of the EU institutions play a role in attitudes toward Turkey’s bid for membership. By contrast, attitudes towards this issue are considerably affected by preferences about EU enlargement and, more strongly, by beliefs about whether Turkey at least partly belongs to Europe. Likewise, when forming attitudes towards Turkey’s bid for EU membership, Germans appear to consider the presumed consequences of including Turkey in the EU. Both East and West Germans are particularly likely to take consequences for regional security into account. The paper concludes with a discussion of several implications for German public opinion on this EU issue.     

Lessons of Russian in Afghanistan

The experience of Soviet involvement in Afghanistan (1979–1989) is considered through the prism of institutional transfers. Afghanistan has a long history of attempts to implement Muslim, Soviet and Anglo-Saxon institutional designs. Most of them have failed. This failure can be attributed to the lack of ‘elective affinity’ between traditional and new institutions imported from more developed countries. It is argued that a careful examination of the degree of elective affinity must precede any attempt of institutional transfers. An analysis of Ph.D. dissertations defended by Afghan students at Soviet and Russian universities complements logical arguments and references to historical facts.

试论唐至清初潮州的海外贸易与海上走私

潮州与海外诸国的贸易往来很早就有,但在唐至清初这一时段里,潮州诸港从未成为官府承认的、合法的、正式的对外贸易港口。潮州通番走私贸易从内容上看,有非法地从事贸易与非法地从事违禁物品贸易之分;从形式上看又有下海通番与坐地通番之别。长期从事违禁贸易进一步助长了潮州人蔑视官府,视违禁为快速致富之路的不良风气,此种风气可以说是于今余绪犹存。     

Rereading the Public: Isolationism and Internationalism Revisited

This is the first installment in what we hope will be a recurring series of Forums in ISP. In each segment we intend to provide an outlet for peer-reviewed dialogue and debate on important topics in the field and to allow our readers to discuss material previously printed in the pages of ISP. Below are two comments on "Challenging U.S. Policymakers' Image of an Isolationist Public" by Steven Kull and Clay Ramsay published in ISP 1:1. Both comments raise a number of important issues pertaining to the relationship of public opinion and foreign policy, and also address more general questions of domestic impact on foreign policy outputs and several significant methodological questions about approaches to polling. The Forum begins first with comments by Richard Clark and Kenneth Dautrich, is followed by comments from Shoon Murray, and concludes with a response from Kull and Ramsay.     

Military twists and turns in world politics: downsides or dividends for UN peace operations?

Russia’s challenge to the post-cold war order, and the rise of Islamic State have resulted in a call for increased military spending among NATO members. Despite the increased demand for UN peace operations, any expansion is unlikely to benefit the world organisation. Instead we see an increasing reliance upon regional organisations like the African Union, European Union and NATO, in particular, for robust peace operations. An analysis of Western states (France, Germany and the USA) suggests that future investments in weaponry, technology and staff will primarily benefit NATO and the EU, but not the United Nations.     

The European Union and its energy security challenges: engagement through and with networks

Energy security remains a vital issue for the European Union (EU), even more so in the wake of the events that unfolded in early 2014 in Ukraine. The EU's already fragile position in the international energy arena in terms of security of supply appears to be more uncertain than ever after its umpteenth fallout with its historic energy supplier, Russia. This situation is untenable and calls for swift and decisive action to adequately tackle the issue once and for all. The article looks at the creation of a single EU energy market through the integration of energy networks in the EU. This article then examines various ways to diversify its energy supply, whether through increasing the import of liquefied natural gas or through its relations with the Eurasian Union. It then explores the International Energy Charter as an example of the EU's engagement with transnational policy networks. It concludes that from energy transit, to technology transfer, to investment protection, energy and trade present interplays across various fields. Improvements can be made to the EU trading system to ensure greater energy security and more efficient energy markets.     

International institutions and market expectations: Stock price responses to the WTO ruling on the 2002 U.S. steel tariffs

Many scholars assert that international institutions have little power to enforce laws, punish offenders, or force compliance. Others stress that international institutions are important actors, specifically in the regulation of international trade. In this paper, I show that the recent trade dispute over U.S. steel protection provides us with a critical case to evaluate the role of the World Trade Organization in settling trade disputes and specifically stabilizing expectations of market actors over future steel policy. I argue that stock prices can serve as an important tool in answering these questions. In an empirical analysis using daily steel stock prices, I find that during the 2002 WTO steel case, the WTO dispute mechanism helped market actors stabilize expectations of future trade policy.

中国印尼货物贸易互补性分析

中国是印度尼西亚最主要的贸易伙伴之一,既是印尼最大的出口目的地,也是印尼第一大进口来源国。而对于中国来说,印尼不是主要的贸易伙伴,只是一个快速增长的新兴市场。从中印尼两国贸易商品结构分析的结论看,印尼可以在农业原材料、食品、燃料、矿物和金属方面加大对中国的出口,而中国可以在制成品方面加大对印尼的出口。两国贸易的互补性指数表明两国在技术条件、要素禀赋、所处的经济发展阶段等方面存在较大差异,基本属于垂直型产业间贸易,具有较为广阔的贸易发展空间。当前中国与印尼的贸易正面临着一些障碍与困境:印尼频繁对中国发起贸易救济立案,中国与印尼之间的传统能源贸易也面临不可持续的困境。鉴于以上各种原因,中国企业可以通过投资印尼,来提升两国的经济合作水平。     

大国博弈、双层均势的亚洲时刻--俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦的认知与政策立场

俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦有着独特的认知和期待,并与克里姆林宫的官方立场互为表里。总体上,俄方智库的观点是,在经贸摩擦的背后,是中美两国对军事、政治、科技、地区和全球领导权的竞争;两国的国内议程和对外政策,将因此受到深远影响并产生溢出效应--在亚洲区域内形成两极结构。即使两国会因国内和国际政治因素,在经贸问题上达成妥协,但中方不会放弃获得世界科技领导者的雄心,美方也不会打消遏制中国发展动能的战略意图。俄罗斯应与中国继续保持经济与军事合作,避免与美国和西方关系的继续恶化,并在亚太地区推动"大欧亚伙伴关系"倡议。俄罗斯政策分析界基于自身利益的演绎,将中美经贸摩擦定性为大国博弈,相应的政策建议反映出俄罗斯以在全球和亚洲分别制衡美中为目标的双层均势策略。俄罗斯将在有亚洲其他国家参与的情景下扮演战略平衡手角色,借中美全面对抗之势,在中美俄三边关系之外扭转不利的外部发展环境。俄罗斯对亚太国际局势的盘活作用,将催生双边和三边竞合新模式的建立。     

欧亚经济联盟的多重一体化目标及其法治困境

欧亚经济联盟作为区域一体化组织中的新成员,其政治、经济、社会、法律、文化等多重一体化的目标趋势与愿望在不同领域表现出功能性差异,即经济的先导性、政治的战略性、社会认同性、法律保障性、文化融通性等。在全球治理、互联互通和全球产业链正在生成的背景下,如何立足联盟多重发展目标,更好地发挥出欧亚经济联盟的应有作用,尚存诸多法治困境:从超国家制度与主权国家制度的衔接到成员国间的基础性不平衡对一致性规则形成的制约,再到联盟法律与成员国法律对接的阻却性因素的存在,以及联盟从初级一体化规则向高级一体化规则演进的迫切需求等。面向未来,欧亚经济联盟呈现出初级、中级和高级三阶段过程性发展的趋势,基于历史文化的多重合法性根基将促动多重一体化目标的实现,同时决定在国际法治与国内法治的交错并存中构建联盟法制机制,并促动规则治理的深化均是可期的。