Estimating the numbers of prison terms in criminal careers from one-step probabilities of recidivism

A method of using estimates of one-step probabilities of recidivism, i.e., conditional probabilities of individuals returning to prison for the jth time given release for the (j-1)st time, to estimate the numbers of prison terms expected to be accumulated by the individuals, is presented. The method is illustrated by calculating the expected numbers of prison terms separately for racial and gender groups in a large data base of Western Australian prisoners. The recidivism probabilities for these data were estimated by fitting Weibull mixture models to the (possibly censored) times to recidivate. The probabilities increase strongly asj increases from 1 to 6, then level off. Large differences between them are due to racial and gender group and these are reflected in the differing expected prison career durations for these groups. The effect of interventions which might lower recidivism is discussed in the light of the method as applied to these estimates.     

‘Growth oriented’ corporate governance reform – can it solve Japan's performance puzzle?

Abstract

Recent governance reforms in Japan aim at promoting ‘the establishment of an environment that supports appropriate risk-taking by the senior management.’ The article evaluates the reforms on the basis of two questions: do the reforms tackle the right issues? And will they be effective? The Japanese economy faces indeed a performance puzzle. Despite Japan's strong efforts in the field of research and development, its excellent work force and abundant financial capital, the economy is performing poorly in terms of productivity. The performance puzzle seems to be closely related to the way large Japanese companies are governed, namely by boards filled with internally promoted lifetime employees. However, the correlation between board composition and performance is spurious. Both are influenced by a third factor, which manifests itself in the predominance of in-house careers. In-house careers determine the composition of boards and have, over the last twenty years, had a negative impact on economic performance. The governance reforms do not address the root of Japan's performance puzzle. They may nevertheless provide an important stimulus for redesigning the way Japanese corporations recruit, train and promote future leaders.     

Micro-models of criminal careers: A synthesis of the criminal careers and life course approaches via semiparametric mixed poisson regression models,with empirical applications

Much recent research and debate in criminology have centered around how to conceptualize and model longitudinal sequences of delinquent and criminal acts committed by individuals. Two approaches dominate this controversy. One originates in thecriminal careers paradigm, which emphasizes a potentialheterogeneity of offending groups in the general population—thus leading to a distinction between incidence and prevalence of criminal offending, a focus on the onset, persistence, and desistence of criminal careers, and the possibility that criminals are a distinctive group with constant high rates of offending. Another approach places criminal events within a broader context ofstudies of the life course by explicitly substituting the conceptualization of “social events” for that of “criminal careers”. With respect to analytical models, this approach emphasizes a potentialheterogeneity of offenders with respect to order of criminal events from first to second to higher orders and thus suggests an analysis of the “risks” or “hazards” of offending by order of offense. Some extant commentaries on the criminal careers and life course approaches to conceptualizing and modeling longitudinal sequences of delinquent and criminal events committed by individuals have emphasized their differences and incompatibilities. In contrast, we apply recently developed semiparametric mixed Poisson regression techniques to develop conditions under which the two conceptual/modeling approaches are formally equivalent. We also modify the semiparametric mixed Poisson regression model of criminal careers to incorporate information on order of the delinquent/criminal event and develop an empirical application. This modification demonstrates the complementarity of the criminal careers and life course approaches, even though they have somewhat different foci.     

A measure of skewness in offense distributions

It has become a criminological fact of life that a small group of offenders is responsible for a far greater share of offending than its size would suggest. For example, it is well known that in the 1945 Philadelphia birth cohort, 6% of the cohort members committed 52% of the offenses. We argue, however, that the conventional percentaging approach to measuring skewness in offense distributions is inadequate. We propose and apply an alternative approach to measuring offense skewness which utilizes the offense distribution to its fullest and can easily and meaningfully be used for comparisons across or within study populations.     

Specialization and seriousness during adult criminal careers

Crime-type switching between arrests is examined for tendencies by adult offenders to specialize in crime types or to escalate in seriousness as offending continues. The adult offenders examined display higher levels of specialization than have been previously reported for juveniles; among adult offenders, those who remain criminally active until older ages are also more specialized. Also, there is some evidence of trends toward a worsening of offending: for selected crime types, adult offending becomes more specialized and escalates in seriousness for white offenders. However, similar trends are not observed for black adult offenders.Work on this paper was completed while at the School of Urban and Public Affairs, Carnegie Mellon University.     

Specialization in juvenile careers: Markov results for a California cohort

In this paper, we examine the arrest careers through September 1985 of a highly active cohort of youth paroled by the California Youth Authority in the early 1980s. Our results are in some ways similar to and in other ways different from those reported by other researchers. We find that while adjacent transition matrices appear constant, the same cannot be said for nonadjacent matrices. We reject the first-order Markov hypothesis and find support for specialization in the statistical significance of the forward specialization coefficients. Our results also suggest that, in addition to transitions to the same type of offense, an oscillating pattern of offending is common for our subjects. We also compare the transition matrices of three racial/ethnic and four regional groups. These results indicate differences in the patterns of offending by the racial/ethnic groups in our sample and similar offense-transition behavior in three of the four regions that differs significantly from that of the fourth region.Points of view are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy of the National Institute of Justice, U.S. Department of Justice, or U.S. General Accounting Office.     

Mixed Rules,Different Roles? An Analysis of the Typical Pathways into the Bundestag and of MPs' Parliamentary Behaviour

Does the German mixed electoral system produce two types of representatives – MPs elected in the district who aim primarily to represent the interests of their constituencies and list MPs who are primarily loyal to their party or seek to serve ‘functional’ interest groups? The paper addresses this controversial question in two steps. It first uses sequence analysis in order to discover empirically just how prominent the exclusive ‘path into the Bundestag’ actually was by way of either the party list or the electoral district. The empirical basis is a data set covering all 3581 members of parliament from 1949 to 2009. Secondly, after having identified MPs with clear district or list careers, the paper replicates a study on committee membership asking whether district MPs sat more often in committees that are of relevance for their districts while list MPs more often sit in so-called ‘policy’ committees. The paper finds no evidence for a clear ‘mandate divide’ between MPs elected in a district and those numerous MPs entering parliament via the party list but also contesting a district.     

Girls,Why Do You Want to Become Police Officers? Career Goals/Choices Among Criminal Justice Undergraduates

Three main research questions were examined in the present study. First, are there differences between male and female criminal justice undergraduates when it comes to selecting their future careers? Second, are male criminal justice students more likely than their female counterparts to pursue careers in law enforcement? Third, are men more likely than women to hold unfavorable attitudes toward women criminal justice practitioners? Data were collected from 256 undergraduates majoring in criminal justice at an urban university located in a metropolitan area in the midwestern United States during the early spring of 2006. Significant gender differences were found among the respondents in terms of their career goals/choices and motivations.     

The Educational and Professional Goals of International Students in Public Service Degrees

International student enrollment in public service degrees such as Public Administration in the United States has grown rapidly. Harnessing this growth to improve the knowledge and expertise of employees in public service is a vital opportunity. However, our survey of public service schools shows that international students perceive an extensive lack of support with financial and linguistic challenges. Furthermore, schools practice little performance evaluation concerning international student experience. We conclude that schools collect more data on international students and communicate better information about programs to improve services and ensure that students know accurately what to expect from their overseas education.     

The influence of police interventions and alternative income sources on the dynamic process of choosing crime as a career

This paper demonstrates how a rational process of choice may be influenced by both deterrence forces and economic opportunities. This choice is modeled by a dynamic (Markov) process which captures self-sorting by youth among the categories of innocents, desisters, and persisters. in crime. A key to the results is the introduction of the perceived probability of punishment and its influence on the sorting process. The analysis shows how this force and the availability, or lack of, economic opportunities or income sources modify transition probabilities. The long-run consequences will be a larger subpopulation of individuals who have experimented with crime but subsequently revert to crime-free behavior and a smaller subpopulation of individuals who commit a greater share of crime. Empirical evidence is based on data from the New Youth Cohort of the National Longitudinal Surveys.