Stochastic models for analyzing Criminal Careers

The recent National Research Counci! Panel on Research on Criminal Careers (Blumsteinet al., 1986) identified the following as one of its items for future research: ... changes in the model [for analyzing criminal careers] are needed to reflect the consequences of the considerable heterogeneity in the values of A. This paper discusses the range of stochastic models available that take account of variations in A that occur during an individual offender's career, variations in A between different types of offenders, and both forms of variation simultaneously. Together these models are a flexible and powerful tool for studying criminal careers. For completeness, failure rate regression models are also briefly described.     

Organised crime,occupations and opportunity

This paper elaborates upon occupations, work relations, work settings, and their connection with organised crime activities. The analysis is based upon data from 120 case studies from the Dutch Organised Crime Monitor, involving 1623 suspects. The paper describes the different kinds of occupations encountered in cases of organised crime and the main characteristics of these occupations. Furthermore, the paper describes in more detail four cases of organised crime that illustrate the embeddedness of certain organised crime activities in work relations and work settings. Following Mars,1 ^?1. Gerald Mars, Cheats at Work: An Anthropology of Workplace Crime (London: Unwin Paperbacks, 1982). the paper analyses both the grid dimension and the group dimension of certain occupations and work settings. The paper concludes that social relations as well as settings and opportunity structures provide structure to the organisation of many forms of crime, including organised crime.     

From House to Home: Strategic Bill Drafting in Multilevel Systems with Non-static Ambition

How do legislators behave in systems where pursuit of re-election is not the rule, and ambition is channelled through multiple levels of government? Is their legislative behaviour biased towards their immediate career goals? In this paper, the Argentine case is analysed in order to explore the link between political ambition and legislative performance in a multilevel setting where politicians have subnational executive positions as priorities, rather than stable legislative careerism. The piece demonstrates that legislators seeking mayoral positions tend to submit more district-level legislation than their peers. This finding contributes to the knowledge of strategic behaviour in multilevel settings, and provides non-US-based evidence regarding the use of non-roll call position-taking devices.     

Rétributions du militantisme et paradoxes de l'action collective

L‘observation montre que l‘activité militante génère des rétributions qui la stimule en retour. La prise en compte de ces rétributions est un élément important de la compréhension des investissements et désinvestissements militants. Cette hypothèse apparaît pourtant iconoclaste et hérétiques à beaucoup d‘acteurs et aussi de chercheurs. C‘est que les univers militants sont officiellement désintéressés et censurent l‘existence d‘intérêts propres distincts de l‘attachement à la cause de l‘action collective. Mais les résistances sont aussi un effet des difficultés des sciences sociales à rendre compte des états de “conscience“ (ou d‘aperception) des intérêts socialement censurés. De ce point de vue, l‘hypothèse de rétributions “inconscientes“ et aussi inadéquate que la conception cynique d‘une recherche délibérée. L‘analogie de la scotomisation permet de comprendre comment des rétributions du militantisme peuvent être à la fois aperçues et refusées. Mais les rétributions, comme les coûts, de l‘action collective n‘existent pas en eux‐mêmes. Ils se constituent comme tels tout au long de l‘itinéraire militant. L‘importance qui leur est attribuée varie selon les étapes et les moments de la carrière militante. L‘existence de rétributions dépend également de l‘adéquation entre les satisfactions offertes par les “styles“ de fonctionnement d‘une organisation et les attentes de ceux que l‘organisation est en mesure d‘attirer. L‘investissement dans la cause est notamment une condition des rétributions du militantisme. Mais les gratifications associées à cet investissement sont en compétition avec celles que l‘on peut retirer d‘autres activités. L‘attractivité de la cause est une condition pour que les satisfactions de l‘engagement gardent suffisamment de prix pour stimuler le militantisme.     

Age and crime in a Stockholm cohort

This study reports some findings on the age-crime relationship from a study of a 1953 Stockholm cohort (Project Metropolitan) through youth and young adulthood. The study includes 15,117 males and females. Basic data about crime in the cohort are presented along with more detailed data about the age-crime relationship. Special emphasis is given to sex and social class differences. The findings are discussed in the context of the recent debate on the value of longitudinal studies of crime as regards the study of the age-crime relationship. The results show that overall there are many general similarities with the findings from U.S. and British research on age, crime, and criminal careers.Project Metropolitan operates on grants from the Commission for Social Research and the Swedish Council for Planning and Coordination of Research. Until 1985 the project was supported by the Bank of Sweden Tercentenary Foundation. Project Metropolitan is directed by Professor Carl-Gunnar Janson, Department of Sociology, University of Stockholm.     

Psychopathy among condemned capital murderers

Psychopathy is an important forensic mental health construct. Despite this importance, the research base of psychopathy among individuals convicted of capital murder is limited. Archival data were collected from a sample of 636 persons convicted of capital murder and sentenced to death in the State of California. Psychopathy was assessed using the Psychopathy Checklist – Revised (PCL-R) instrument. Data on criminal careers and other behavioral disorders were also extracted. The sample mean PCL-R total score was 23.31 (SD = 9.92) and one-third of individuals in this sample were considered clinically psychopathic with PCL-R total scores of 30 or greater. Factor analytic examination yielded support for four facets: affective, interpersonal, lifestyle, and antisocial. Criterion validity findings revealed positive correlations of psychopathy scores with Antisocial Personality Disorder (ρ = 0.72), Conduct Disorder (ρ = 0.46), sexual sadism (ρ = 0.24), Oppositional Defiant Disorder (ρ = 0.20), ADHD (ρ = 0.15), arrest charges (r = 0.56), prison sentences (r = 0.53), and age of arrest onset (r = −0.57). Individuals convicted of capital murder and sentenced to death reflect heterogeneity in psychopathy with some individuals exhibiting pronounced psychopathic features.     

The Effect of the Electoral Calendar on Politicians' Selection into Legislative Cohorts and Legislative Behavior in Argentina, 1983–2007

How do electoral opportunities affect politicians' career strategies? Do politicians behave strategically in response to the opportunities provided by the electoral calendar? We argue that in a legislature that combines nonstatic ambition with a staggered electoral calendar, different kinds of politicians will have dissimilar preferences towards running in concurrent or midterm elections. More specifically, politicians with no previous executive experience should strategically run in midterm legislative elections in order to increase their visibility among voters, while more experienced politicians should opt for concurrent elections. We support these claims with data from the Argentine Chamber of Deputies between 1983 and 2007.     

Pathways to Power: The Role of Preparliamentary Careers and Political Human Capital in the Obtainment of Cabinet Positions

Understanding the rise to power is central to the study of politics. Yet, we still know little about the career paths of influential politicians like ministers. The literature assumes that dominant preparliamentary occupations (e.g., lawyer, local offices) predict promotion. We move beyond this potential ecological fallacy and suggest a perspective that emphasizes the role of gatekeepers and political human capital like national political experience and education. We leverage complete career data of all Dutch MPs (N = 1,263; 1945–2012) and study their (N = 4,966) opportunities to obtain a cabinet position. A sequence analysis with fuzzy clustering reveals eight career paths in both the professional and political domain. A logistic regression analysis that uses these career paths as predictors shows that prominent occupations and communicative experience do not constitute the pathway to ministerial power; a university education and preparliamentary national political experience do. Findings support the value of political human-capital theory to understand political promotion.     

EXAMINING THE PREVALENCE OF CRIMINAL DESISTANCE*

Criminological theorists and criminal justice policy makers place a great deal of importance on the idea of desistance. In general terms, criminal desistance refers to a cessation of offending activity among those who have offended in the past. Some significant challenges await those who would estimate the relative size of the desisting population or attempt to identify factors that predict membership in that population. In this paper, we consider several different analytic frameworks that represent an array of plausible definitions. We then illustrate some of our ideas with an empirical example from the 1958 Philadelphia Birth Cohort Study.     

从大学生就业角度谈高校以人为本的内涵式发展战略

人精神上第一需求是尊重,自我价值的实现是人生最高的也是最大的需求。使学生具有实现自我价值能力的人才培养目标是高校对学生的最高尊重,是高校内涵式发展战略的核心。落实以人为本的内涵式发展战略需要高校开展学生的社会化教育、从业能力教育和择业能力教育,需要高校提高教师的综合素质。