The Guatemalan National Revolutionary unit: the long collapse

ABSTRACT

The Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unit (URNG) fought one of the longest and bloodiest civil wars in recent Latin American history. In 1996, the URNG and the Government of Guatemala signed a Firm and Lasting Agreement ending the country’s civil war and initiating the URNG’s post-war life as a political party. After finishing third in its initial electoral competition, the URNG has since been unable to capture more than 4% of the vote, on its own or in coalition, leaving it a minor political party. What explains the poor electoral performance of the URNG as a political party? Based upon fieldwork, elite interviews, and analysis of electoral data, I argue that the URNG’s minor party performance was caused by both organizational and institutional factors.     

"此是东井冈会师天下壮"——略谈东固斗争的历史意义

东固斗争,在红军游击战争和苏维埃运动初期颇具特色,它是赣西南红军游击战争和苏维埃运动的发祥地。它承接了赣西南武装斗争中心地区的使命,在农村建立秘密根据地发展红军,点燃了赣西南红军游击战争和苏维埃运动的星星之火;它在探索中国革命正确道路的斗争中,创造了独具特色的"游击秘密割据",成为"工农武装割据"初级阶段最佳的开展形式;它以"李文林式"的斗争与"朱毛式"的斗争相呼应,坚持与发展了赣西南红军游击战争和苏维埃运动,促进了红三军和赣西南苏区的建立。     

The United Kingdom and International Peacekeeping: 1960–2014

Abstract

The UK has continued to regard itself as a world power despite the reduction in its capability for intervention overseas. Its armed forces pride themselves on professionalism, competence and adaptability. In practice their involvement in peacekeeping operation has been sporadic given different priorities, defence cuts and public unease about military intervention overseas. The UK’s current involvement is minimal and the UK is likely to remain a marginal player for the foreseeable future.     

Astuteness in Commitment: Rwanda and UN Peacekeeping 1994–2014

Abstract

This article traces Rwanda’s history under German and Belgian colonialism, through independence and genocide to international respectability and membership of the Commonwealth. It examines Rwanda’s impressive contributions to United Nations and African Union peacekeeping forces. There is no single explanation for the magnitude of Rwanda’s contribution. It owes something to Rwanda’s commitment to ‘African solutions for African problems’. Deployment is relatively cheap and allows Rwanda to use its participation for political leverage in international affairs, to attract donors and to benefit financially. Peacekeeping is a factor in the astute foreign policy of Paul Kagame’s government that enhances its authority and stability at home and its prestige abroad.     

Short-Term Forces and Partisanship

One of the most intriguing aspects of the debate regarding the persistence of party identification is that proponents of different schools of thought have each managed to use the same quasi-experimental data and similar state of the art techniques to defend their point of view. In this article we argue that this debate cannot be resolved with quasi-experimental data alone and propose another method that we believe can help us triangulate in on the correct answer: experimentation. Two experiments are performed and analyzed. The first tests the hypothesis that party identification is updated in response to the vote choice; the second tests the hypothesis that candidate evaluations influence party choices. The results of our experiments provide some additional support for the traditional conception of partisanship as the unmoved mover of American politics.     

Autonomous weapon system: Law of armed conflict (LOAC) and other legal challenges

The legality of autonomous weapon systems (AWS) under international law is a swiftly growing issue of importance as technology advances and machines acquire the capacity to operate without human control. This paper argues that the existing laws are ineffective and that a different set of laws are needed. This paper examines several issues that are critical for the development and use of AWS in warfare. It argues that a preemptive ban on AWS is irrelevant at this point and urges the appropriate authorities to develop a modern legal framework that is tailored to embrace these state-of-the-art weapons as the Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC) develops. First, this paper explores the myriad of laws designed to govern the potential future development and deployment of artificial intelligence and AWS in the context of International Humanitarian Law or LAOC. Second, the paper argues that it will be challenging for AWS to fulfill the requirements laid out under the International Committee of the Red Cross and LOAC for the rules of humanity, military necessity, distinction, proportionality and precaution, especially as it is related to noncombatants. Third, the paper discusses command responsibility and argues that states should establish accountability for wrongful acts committed by the AWS. Finally, this paper contends that there is an urgent need for a new legal framework to regulate these AWS and presents different solutions for the legal framework of AWS.     

Meet the Narco: increased competition among criminal organisations and the explosion of violence in Mexico

Several previous studies have found that interventions by security forces against criminal organisations result in increased violence related to organised crime. However, much less is known about how and why this effect occurs. Our study not only identifies the causal mechanisms that explain this outcome, but also evaluates the empirical validity of these mechanisms. Employing a novel data set, we find that following security-force intervention, the number of criminal organisations increases, and such greater fragmentation in turn raises the incidence of violence among criminal organisations as the relative power of the organisations changes. We employ a mediation model to verify the existence of these causal mechanisms. In addition, we find a decreasing rate of rise in levels of violence as the number of organisations increases.     

邓小平社会主义本质概括的哲学蕴意

邓小平的社会主义本质理论包含着对马克思关于科学社会主义理论的重大发展 ,并蕴涵着丰富的哲学思想。在“解放思想 ,实事求是”的科学世界观和方法论基础上 ,此一概括将生产力与生产关系、基础本质与价值本质辨证地统一起来 ,体现了彻底的唯物史观 ,深刻地揭示了社会主义本质是一个辨证发展过程的科学思想。     

探析农村黑恶势力形成的社会心理基础

农村黑恶势力的孳生、发展与其相应的社会心理基础有着必然的关系。其形成的社会心理基础,包括心理的互动性、集团内聚力、从众现象、社会心理需要与公共权力弱化等方面的内容。必须采取有效措施,充分发挥社会规范的综合治理作用,以减少或消除农村黑恶势力形成的社会心理基础。     

Anchoring the Peace: Civil Society Actors in Peace Accords and Durable Peace

Is peace more likely to prevail when the peace accord includes civil society actors such as religious groups, women's organizations, and human rights groups? This is the first statistical study that explores this issue. The article develops key claims in previous research regarding the role of civil society actors and durable peace, and proposes a set of hypotheses that focus on legitimacy in this process. The hypotheses are examined by employing unique data on the inclusion of civil society actors in all peace agreements in the post–Cold War period. The statistical analysis shows that inclusion of civil society actors in the peace settlement increases the durability of peace. The results further demonstrate that peace accords with involvement from civil society actors and political parties in combination are more likely to see peace prevail. The findings also suggest that inclusion of civil society has a particularly profound effect on the prospects for overall peace in nondemocratic societies.