中国崛起与全球安全治理转型

中国崛起与全球安全治理转型是21世纪初国际关系领域两个备受瞩目的全球性现象。文章以全球安全治理体系中的安全制度安排和安全规范设定为主要分析路径,以全球政治安全治理和全球经济安全治理为主要分析单元。一方面,自二战结束以来全球安全治理体系可分为"单边全球主义"和"全球单边主义"两个阶段,并且每一阶段的全球安全治理体系均可分解为政治制度、经济制度、政治规范和经济规范四个领域;另一方面,运用比较研究法,对各个时期全球安全治理体系在上述四个领域所体现出来的差异性进行剖析,可以发现,这种差异性集中表现为正在进行中的全球安全治理体系转型,崛起的中国在此次转型过程中开始发挥参与者、建设者和贡献者的作用。在传统全球安全治理体系陷入危机之时,中国崛起在相关领域所带来的制度效应和规范效应正在逐渐潜移默化地嵌入到全球安全治理体系中,中国的政策和实践也将相应日益形成规范化的趋势。     

Making sense of the EU’s response to the Arab uprisings: foreign policy practice at times of crisis

ABSTRACT

The Arab uprisings of 2011 put into question previously held understandings about the stability of authoritarian regimes in North Africa as well as the European Union’s (EU’s) relations with countries in its southern neighbourhood. Despite early calls on behalf of the EU to change its policies, the Union’s responses in the early stages seemed mostly characterised by continuity. This article claims that certain dispositions and background knowledge developed over several decades vis-à-vis EU’s Mediterranean policies served as a baseline from which EU officials and diplomats acted. Drawing on insights from practice approaches, the article argues that the practical understandings on what the EU can (and cannot) do vis-à-vis partner countries in North Africa create a kind of power politics of practical dispositions. The article focuses on the European Neighbourhood Policy - the EU’s flagship initiative - and builds on a unique set of data that combine policy documents and interviews with about 30 EU officials and national diplomats from before and after the Arab uprisings. In this way, it illustrates how practice relates to change in that even though the EU’s responses drew on an established repertoire of practice, enacting it in a new context opened up new possibilities for action.     

网络涉警舆情危机的成因及对策

由涉警事件引起的网络涉警舆情危机影响着警察形象和警察权威的建立。我国正处于社会转型期,社会矛盾多发,警察执法环境并不乐观。警察自身又存在职能不清、违规执法及内部失检等问题,因而成为网络舆情的引爆点。网络的发展和公众的参与又加深了网络舆情的传播和壮大,一旦出现涉警舆情,极易演化成为危机状态,影响警察权威的树立和巩固,波及整个社会秩序的稳定。警察应对网络涉警舆情也应从自身、媒体、公众等方面着手,重塑警察权威。     

美国次贷危机对我国的启示

美国次级债券引发的风波已经波及全球,世界上主要的金融领域公司业绩产生了巨大损失,美国房地产市场也已开始走向衰落。深入探究此次危机,可以使我们更清楚地了解美国房地产泡沫从产生到破灭的全过程,使我们能够正确看待住房贷款市场的风险和金融创新的两面性,这些都对正处在“风口浪尖”的我国经济有着深刻的警示意义。     

政府在危机公关中设立新闻发言人制度的意义

随着经济总量的快速增长和社会分层带来的复杂趋势的加剧,我国突发的公共危机事件频繁发生,政府作为公共事务的管理者,必然要承担起危机管理的责任。政府在危机公关这一过程中,将新闻发言人制度化,对于公开信息,化解危机,设置舆论议程,塑造政府形象,满足公众需求,保持社会正常运转等方面具有重要意义,同时也有助于建立政府与媒体的良好互动关系,起到化危机为转机的作用。     

Russia’s economic policy in 2015–2016: the imperative of structural reform

In the aftermath of the global economic crisis, we have seen uneven development in the leading advanced and emerging economies, new models of economic growth that vary from country to country, uncertain prospects for globalization and challenges of “regional globalization,” looming currency re-configurations, as well as shifting energy price dynamics and their influence on political and economic prospects of particular states. This paper discusses current challenges for social and economic policy in the context of the history of the past 30 years. With reference to Russia, it focuses on a new growth model, structural transformation (including import-substitution issues), economic dynamics, fiscal and monetary concerns, and social issues. It concludes by addressing the priorities of economic policy.     

新一轮改革后的日本经济评析

日本经济在经历了20世纪90年代的衰退后,为实现经济复苏,开始了一轮新的改革.通过一系列改革措施,日本经济在2002年走出低谷,实现了复苏,改革成果显现.可以说,日本经济的复苏是在世界经济发展的背景下实现的,日本经济对世界经济尤其是美国经济具有很大的依赖性.随着全球经济形势的严峻,日本经济也难以独善其身,势必会随世界经济的起落而起落.但由于政府对经济的调控手段的不断成熟和完善,经济转型的延续,日本经济不会出现像20世纪90年代那样大的滑坡,应从发展的眼光把握日本经济今后走势.     

The dynamic political economy of support for Barack Obama during the 2008 presidential election campaign

In recent years, students of voting behavior have become increasingly interested in valence politics models of electoral choice. These models share the core assumption that key issues in electoral politicds typically are ones upon which there is a widespread public consensus on the goals of public policy. The present paper uses latent curve modeling procedures and data from a six-wave national panel survey of the American electorate to investigate the dynamic effects of voters’ concerns with the worsening economy—a valence issue par excellence—in the skein of causal forces at work in the 2008 presidential election campaign. As the campaign developed, the economy became the dominant issue. Although the massively negative public reaction to increasingly perilous economic conditions was not the only factor at work in 2008, dynamic multivariate analyses show that mounting worries about the economy played an important role in fueling Barack Obama’s successful run for the presidency.     

政府危机管理中的公民有序参与研究

公民有序参与政府危机管理,有利于提高公民危机应对能力、降低危机管理成本。目前我国政府危机管理中的公民有序参与处于较低水平,面临着观念、法制、能力、组织等诸多方面的障碍。因此,要通过转变观念、完善法律法规、建立健全信息公开制度等途径,扩大和规范公民有序参与的行为。     

Can Facebook really be a tool for supporting citizen engagement during emergencies?

The present study explores how Italian regions and their presidents employed Facebook during the Covid-19 pandemic to encourage citizen engagement. To do so, it adopts quantitative methodologies. Our results show that most public actors increased their levels of social activity during the pandemic but mainly for promoting public communication and that citizens much prefer interacting with presidents. Moreover, citizen engagement was higher when posts were published during nonbusiness hours or weekends, while it decreased when posts contained photos or videos.