Outfoxing leviathan: campaigning down Mexico way

This paper is concerned with the end of 71 years of single party government in Mexico. The paper explores the ways in which the opposition harnessed modern campaign techniques to the opportunities presented by democratisation to secure regime transition. A number of campaign features, such as the stress on personality and negative campaigning, have attracted considerable criticism, but the author argues that there are grounds for believing the 2000 election to have been a unique election, and that competition should be more clearly structured around parties and issues in the future. Copyright © 2001 Henry Stewart Publications     

完善党内民主选举的保障机制

实现并完善党内选举是推进党内民主的基础环节和根本体现,是以党内民主带动人民民主的内在要求。完善党内民主选举的保障机制是由条件保障机制、制度保障机制和程序保障机制组成的多层次复合结构。在党内选举实践中,积极建构并完善“多维一体”的保障机制并使之发挥积极作用,是增强党内选举成效、实现党的建设科学化、全面推进党的建设伟大工程的内在要求。     

市场经济与民主政治的两种互动

西方是市场经济催生民主政治,我国作为东方大国则是民主政治催生市场经济。当今要加快社会主义民主政治建设才能使市场经济健康发展,否则社会主义市场经济就有蜕变为权贵资本主义市场经济的危险。当前加快社会主义民主政治建设的捷径是稳妥推行县区级、乡镇级首长的直接民主选举。     

Algiers–Paris Round Trips: Diasporic Pathways of a Public Civil Dissidence

ABSTRACT

The fourth term official announcement of the Algerian President provoked in February 2014 a microscale protest movement called “Barakat” (Enough!) in Algiers. The state repression of the pacific protesters triggered a political mobilization among the Algerians living in France, particularly in Paris. Through an Algiers–Paris round-trip analysis, this article sheds light on the political involvement of the Algerian protesters in Paris. It explores the new Algerian diaspora process experience in the Arab civil uprising context, post-2011, and its protean outlines and contributions to reshape (or not) the frontiers of nation, citizenship, political participation, and public debate.     

The Presidential Election of 2008*

Senators Barack Obama and John McCain each has severe problems. McCain must take his distance from the very unpopular President Bush while keeping the support of the core Republican voters, but suffers from lack of rapport with the Fundamentalist Protestants and traditionalist Catholics. In foreign policy, he is more devoted to US global hegemony (in a world which stubbornly refuses it) than the incumbent. Senator Obama knows that this is a dangerous illusion but thinks that it is unwise to say so. He supports Israel in exaggerated terms and repeats the fabrications of the war party about Iran. Obama has the difficulty of being part black and entirely intellectual, and he needs the votes of the working class men and women who are very reserved about him. McCain seeks low taxes and less government expenditure and intervention, but tens of millions of economically hard‐pressed citizens are ready to return to the ethos and practices of the New Deal. Obama promises to revive the regulatory and redistributive role of government to help them, but his reluctance to criticise the arms budget may makes him seem unrealistic. Obama's vision of the United States puts the achievement of the American Revolution in the future whereas McCain thinks of the nation as already perfected. In many respects, we have a classical conflict between left and right.     

Mid-Term Misfortune

正Barack obama strives for a sound legacy Predictably,the U.S.Republican Party(GOP)took back the Senate after eight years in a landslide victory during the mid-term congressional election in November.While the GOP is still in control of the House of Representatives,it also gained ground in state governor elections in Illinois,Maryland,Iowa and Colorado—the traditional spheres of influence of the Democrats.     

ThePolitical TricksofAbe

正Japan’s leader hopes to salvage his power by way of an early election Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dissolved the House of Representatives,or the lower house in the country’s bicameral parliament,on November 21.A consequent snap election will be held on December 14,two years ahead of schedule.In recent months,the Japanese economy has continued to slide and entered a technical     

A Semicolon,Not a Full Stop

正Ukraine’s new president faces big challenges in managing both domestic affairs and relations with Russia Ukrainian candy tycoon Petro Poroshenko’s presidential election victory was unsurpris-ing.What did come as a surprise,however,was that it happened in     

从衡阳贿选案看地方人大选举制度的改革与完善

地方人大贿选的本质是金钱政治、权钱交易,它给国家和社会造成的危害是严重的。衡阳贿选案是地方人大贿选中较为典型的案例,深刻地暴露出我国地方人大选举制度的设计缺陷,如候选人提名制度不合理、缺乏相应的竞选机制、监督机制和处罚机制不完善等。推进地方人大制度的健全和完善,要建立规范的代表候选人提名制度,扩大选民和代表联合提名候选人的比例;在选举中切实落实差额选举制度,引入正当竞选机制;健全监督机制,加大处罚力度。     

Do local elections predict the outcome of the next general election? Forecasting British general elections from local election national vote share estimates

This article outlines a method for forecasting British general elections from national level vote shares at local elections. Although local elections are notionally ‘local’, the evidence suggests that they at least partly mirror national electoral fortunes. A simple general election vote share on local election vote share regression model that accounts for partisan differences and incumbency effects fits past data with reasonable accuracy. Based on the results of the 2013 and 2014 local elections, the model forecast a 56% probability of hung parliament, with a 78% probability of the Conservatives receiving the largest share of the vote.