佛州缠讼激--记2000年美国总统选举在佛州的法庭纷争

2000年美国总统选举是美国历史上拖得时间最长、斗争最激烈、双方最为世界瞩目的一次大选.佛州的"白宫之战"则是决定选战胜负的关键一役.更为世人称奇的是,共和党布什阵营和民主党阵营戈尔,破天荒地将总统宝座之争先后诉诸于法庭.围绕着选举应反映民意还是应遵守联邦以及各州的司法规定,从州法院缠讼到联邦法院,从基层法院打到最高法院,最后由联邦最高法院9位大法官以5票对4票的裁决,一槌定音粉碎了戈尔入主白宫的美梦,把布什送进了白宫.     

Generation effects? Evolution of independence–unification views in Taiwan, 1996–2016

The landslide victory of the Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan's 2016 presidential and legislative elections is often interpreted as a persistent swing in attitudes toward cross-strait relations and Taiwan independence. Popular as this interpretation may be, it still runs the risk of mistaking a short-term reaction to a lame duck president's policy performance for a long-term change in attitudes.This study analyzes the evolution of independence–unification (IU) views in the Taiwan population from 1996 to 2016. After reviewing the literature on political generations in Taiwan, I hypothesize that a long-term cohort succession replacing older prounification generations accounted for the evolution toward proindependence views. By pooling six independent face-to-face surveys into repeated cross-sectional data, this study applies a comprehensive multilevel cross-classified random-effect model of age–period–cohort analysis. Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation results confirm that, besides age and period effects, younger cohorts and the 1999 Taiwan-centered high school curriculum have had significant effects on the change in trends in IU views.     

Parties’ issue strategies on the drawing board: the 2017 Austrian case

Abstract

Parties may rely on different issue agendas when tailoring their electoral campaigns in an attempt to win elections. This paper compares two key party issue strategies to examine which one the victorious Austrian Peoples’ Party (ÖVP) relied on the most during the 2017 Austrian election campaign vis-à-vis its main competitors. These two key party strategies are the ‘riding-the-wave’ model, which posits that parties focus on issues that currently concern voters the most and the recent ‘issue-yield model’, which instead suggests that parties adopt strategic behaviour targeting all those issues with genuine opportunities for electoral expansion. It is found that, compared to the other main parties in the 2017 Austrian election campaign, the ÖVP was the one most clearly relying on the issue-yield approach. These results have important implications for our understanding of electoral campaigns, party’s exploitation of issue strategies, and voter representation beyond the Austrian case.     

完善党政领导人才选拔任用机制的三个方向:制度化、民主化、科学化

党政领导人才选拔任用机制创新是我国公共部门人力资源管理领域的核心问题,本文在总结党政领导人才选拔任用工作的成就和分析其存在问题的基础上,从制度化、民主化和科学化的角度,探索了完善党政领导人才选拔任用机制的方向与途径。     

The British Election Study 2015 general election constituency forecast

This paper develops a votes-to-seats nowcast model using individual level data from the British Election Study Internet panel to model the flow of the vote between 2010 and 2015. Transition matrices for each constituency are calculated using multinomial models of flows between 2010 origins and 2015 destinations. Respondents are reweighted to the polling average for England, Scotland and Wales and are further reweighted using predicted turnout to downweight respondents who are less likely to vote. The forecast performed poorly in 2015 because of polling errors and because the “Ashcroft” constituency vote intention question overestimated the Liberal Democrat incumbency effect. Without these errors, the forecast would have come much closer to the result but would still have underestimated the Conservatives' seats.     

Limited information and coordinated voting in multi-party elections under plurality rule: The role of campaigns

This essay bridges the logic of electoral coordination with the observation that many voters cannot recognize ex post viable candidates. When strategic voting is limited, behavioral factors of sincere voting play a large part in coordinating uninformed voters and inform the expectations of potentially strategic voters about the patterns of voting. Using the 2011 Canadian Election Survey, I found strong effects of the density of campaign contacts and the asymmetries in the campaigns spending and party identification on the predictability of the patterns of intra-district competition. A comparison of the effects of behavioral factors on the uninformed and informed voters confirms that the effect of centrifugal spending and party identification is conditional on the ability of voters to recognize the leaders of district competition.     

Determinants of voting results in Poland in the 2015 parliamentary elections. Analysis of spatial differences

This paper analyses spatial differences in the voting results in Poland in the 2015 parliamentary elections. Eleven clusters defining different support profiles are determined using the two most popular stopping rules. Parameters of the multinomial logit model are estimated and determinants of Polish communes' membership in specific clusters are identified. The results of the estimation indicate that economic, sociodemographic and location variables strongly determined the Poles' electoral preferences. However, historical and cultural factors turned out to be the most important determinants.     

Race,Partisanship, and Political Trust Following <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bush versus Gore</Emphasis> (2000)

In contrast to what we know about the sources of political trust among whites, recent research suggests that political mistrust among blacks indicates discontent with the political system. The current study adds to research investigating racial differences in political trust by examining racial differences in the influence of the 2000 United States presidential election on political trust. Specifically, I test for whether whites and blacks adjusted their trust in government in response to the Supreme Court’s decision in Bush versus Gore (2000) and whether the influence of the Court’s decision on trust was dependent on partisan identification. The findings indicate that blacks perceived the Court’s decision as illegitimate, reinforcing their mistrust in their political system.

论农村换届选举的法律规制

选举是民主政治的基石。农村基层民主选举是农村基层民主建设的重要内容,搞好农村基层民主选举是建设稳定和谐、幸福的社会主义新农村重要举措。建立完善的农村选举制度和村务管理制度是有效防止少数人为追求非法利益,采取一些违法手段破坏农村的换届选举有力武器。     

Russia’s New Old President

正Vladimir Putin is elected Russian president for a third term The West and the opposition have denounced him as an "autocrat." But many Russians regard him as the hero of Russia and are crazy about him. Vladimir Putin declared victory in