人大监督功能弱化的若干因素分析

人大监督功能严重弱化已是不争的事实。之所以如此,本文不仅分析了人大自身运行机制的因素,而且着重从人大监督制度的理论立足点、经济、政治文化、政治体制、选举制度等方面的深层次因素进行了剖析。     

从“中大直选”看我国校园民主化进程

随着我国社会民主化程度的提高，校园民主化进程亦日益加快。随着官方公布选举结果并进行公示，广受关注的中山大学学生会主席直选基本结束。整理多方报道评论，对整个事件进行全方位的总结与多角度的思考，结合中国现实情况对校园民主化进程推进的现状进行探讨，对校园民主化推进过程中存在的问题进行分析。     

论民主化的本质——从国家建设的视角

从自由选举视角来看待民主化,进而把实施普选作为民主化的标志,存在一定局限性。实际上,民主化是现代国家建设的本质属性和内在要求,所以应把民主化放在现代国家建设中来理解,它内在地包含了国家制度建设、公民的社会行动和国家治理机制转变三个逻辑阶段。但在三个逻辑阶段之间过渡过程中,存在较大的政治风险,所以必须将民主化理解为一个深思熟虑的政治实践,从而有效驾驭民主化。     

村委会选举中村民群体行为的生成

理论界把群体行为叫做群体事件，并认为具有违法性的特点，不够准确。应当叫群体行为。且包括合法的和违法的两类群体行为；将选举中的违法行为作为群体行为的原因，虽有一定的事实依据，但失于表面化，值得关注的特殊原因有，罢免案中潜在的诱因；较高的经济发展水平激活了村民主体意识和权利意识，成为诱发群体行为的重要的间接因素；选举活动本身也是诱发村民群体行为的因素。内因包括利益群体形成的原因、群体行为形成的原因和群体行为方式的选择的原因等。     

市民参与—可持续发展中的制度选择

对于可持续发展涵义一直以来都非常的模糊,建立在传统发展观之上的可持续发展是以经济的永续发展为主旨。然而与传统发展观不同,经济的可持续性不等同于可持续发展;科学技术不能解决发展中的所有问题;可持续发展转移了工业发达国家对于环境破坏的责任。与以官僚和技术精英制订未来发展政策不同,让市民民主参与并决策未来的发展计划,唯有这样才称得上是真正的可持续发展。     

The British Election Study 2015 general election constituency forecast

This paper develops a votes-to-seats nowcast model using individual level data from the British Election Study Internet panel to model the flow of the vote between 2010 and 2015. Transition matrices for each constituency are calculated using multinomial models of flows between 2010 origins and 2015 destinations. Respondents are reweighted to the polling average for England, Scotland and Wales and are further reweighted using predicted turnout to downweight respondents who are less likely to vote. The forecast performed poorly in 2015 because of polling errors and because the “Ashcroft” constituency vote intention question overestimated the Liberal Democrat incumbency effect. Without these errors, the forecast would have come much closer to the result but would still have underestimated the Conservatives' seats.     

Limited information and coordinated voting in multi-party elections under plurality rule: The role of campaigns

This essay bridges the logic of electoral coordination with the observation that many voters cannot recognize ex post viable candidates. When strategic voting is limited, behavioral factors of sincere voting play a large part in coordinating uninformed voters and inform the expectations of potentially strategic voters about the patterns of voting. Using the 2011 Canadian Election Survey, I found strong effects of the density of campaign contacts and the asymmetries in the campaigns spending and party identification on the predictability of the patterns of intra-district competition. A comparison of the effects of behavioral factors on the uninformed and informed voters confirms that the effect of centrifugal spending and party identification is conditional on the ability of voters to recognize the leaders of district competition.     

美国企业工会选举的法律保障初探

美国企业工会选举是其集体谈判制度的重要组成部分.美国企业工会选举的法律保障包括确认谈判单位、举行工会选举及其相关的劳动争议处理.美国企业工会选举的法律保障具有制定法与判例法相结合、政府中立、程序公正和保障企业民主等特点.这对构建我国的集体协商/谈判制度有着积极的借鉴意义.     

Generation effects? Evolution of independence–unification views in Taiwan, 1996–2016

The landslide victory of the Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan's 2016 presidential and legislative elections is often interpreted as a persistent swing in attitudes toward cross-strait relations and Taiwan independence. Popular as this interpretation may be, it still runs the risk of mistaking a short-term reaction to a lame duck president's policy performance for a long-term change in attitudes.This study analyzes the evolution of independence–unification (IU) views in the Taiwan population from 1996 to 2016. After reviewing the literature on political generations in Taiwan, I hypothesize that a long-term cohort succession replacing older prounification generations accounted for the evolution toward proindependence views. By pooling six independent face-to-face surveys into repeated cross-sectional data, this study applies a comprehensive multilevel cross-classified random-effect model of age–period–cohort analysis. Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation results confirm that, besides age and period effects, younger cohorts and the 1999 Taiwan-centered high school curriculum have had significant effects on the change in trends in IU views.