中国选举制度的发展趋向

我国的选举制度虽然有很多优点,但还需要改革,逐步走向完善合理.我国选举制度的发展趋向是:中国选举制度保证中国共产党是唯一的执政党;逐步扩大直接选举的范围;选举引入竞争机制;完善代表候选人的推举办法,借鉴外国经验,联名推举的人数适当增加;逐步做到"选民"登记无误;完善选举监督机制,完善选举法.     

干部选拔标准的评判问题及其消解

干部选拔之所以存在问题,不仅在于干部选拔的标准难以量化、量化不彻底或量化原则难以贯彻,还在于干部政绩评判工作的复杂性、干部评判意识的薄弱性和评判体系的不合理性。解决干部选拔标准的评判问题的关键是解决政绩评判问题;解决政绩评判问题的根本途径是建立健全科学的政绩评判制度,最终解决好“谁评判”、“评判谁”、“评什么”、“怎么评”的问题。     

Voting when the economy goes bad,everyone is in charge,and no one is to blame: The case of the 2009 German election

The economy was a major issue in Germany’s 2009 election. The global economic crisis did not spare Germany, whose economy is tightly integrated into the global economy. So when the German economy experienced a historical shock, did voters connect their views of the economy with their vote choice? Or did they, as some research has suggested, recognize Germany’s dependence on global markets and cut the government slack, especially when the government consists of the country’s two major parties? Using pre- and post-election panel surveys from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES), we investigate the weight that voters gave to the economy, relative to other considerations, when casting their ballot and whether governing parties were disproportionately judged based on the state of the economy.     

The opposition Pakatan Rakyat in the twelfth Malaysian parliament, 2008–12, and parliamentary behaviour on the budget process

In the post-2008 Malaysian general election, the opposition political parties the Parti KeADILan Rakyat, the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party and the Democratic Action Party started to gain currency, especially when the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) government was denied its two-thirds of the majority in parliament. The 2008 result indicated that there was a substantial shift in support from the incumbent BN to the opposition parties. The opposition later on was formed into a coalition known as Pakatan Rakyat (PR). The minor victory of the PR in the 2008 election suggested that it had secured a considerable number of seats in the twelfth Malaysian parliament. This article argues that the 2008 electoral outcome exhibited substantial competitive parliamentary behaviour despite the authoritarian nature of Malaysia. The article examines PR behaviour in the twelfth parliament with reference to the budget process. Besides elections, the Malaysian parliament is a very crucial indicator of the development of democratic governance in Malaysia. This article argues that the opposition PR is still relevant in the way in which it has fully exercised its legal parliamentary capability, especially its de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim, in questioning and posing constraints on the ruling BN policies concerning the budget process.     

地区竞争、选举政治与“一带一路”债务可持续性——剖析所谓“债务陷阱外交”论

从2017年开始,国际舆论较为频繁地使用"债务陷阱外交"描述中国"一带一路"倡议背后的战略目的。从经济角度衡量,中国给"一带一路"沿线国家的贷款条件并不苛刻,且在中国推出"一带一路"之前,大量中低收入国家的债务负担就已经出现明显增长趋势,并不存在"一带一路"引发系统性"债务陷阱"的问题。因此,"债务陷阱外交"论缺乏经济基础。进而可以发现,东道国及其所处的地区政治环境在"债务陷阱外交"论产生与传播的过程中扮演了重要角色。为此,本文构建了一个地区环境与国内政治选举相互作用的分析框架,通过比较案例研究分析了"债务陷阱外交"论在典型国家出现、传播与发挥影响的机制。"一带一路"项目往往与东道国执政者"政治捆绑",国内权力更迭导致的国家发展战略变动,为该国政府改变自身对"一带一路"的政策选择创造了空间,其所处的地区政治环境也显著影响政策变化的幅度。中国在推进"一带一路"建设时,既要与东道国进行双边互动,充分重视东道国国内不同力量的博弈,也要注意到沿线国家所处地区政治环境对该国能否持续参与"一带一路"构成制约。我们需要以一种更加多维的视角进行思考,超越传统的紧盯美国的对外政策模式,为"一带一路"的顺利实施营造更加良好的政治环境。     

The British general election: Synthetic forecasts

Election forecasting work, in Britain and elsewhere, has been confined mainly to traditional approaches – statistical modeling or poll-watching. We import a new approach, which we call synthetic modeling. These models, developed out of forecasting efforts from the American 2012 presidential election, we are currently testing in a comparative European context. In this exercise, we apply the strategy to forecasting British general elections, in particular the upcoming 2015 contest. These synthetic forecasts come from hybrid models blending structural knowledge with contemporary public opinion. We generate ongoing nowcasts, from six months prior, to one month before, Election Day itself.     

Forecasting the 2015 British election through party popularity functions

To forecast the May 7, 2015 British General Election, we develop party popularity models based on Continuous Monitoring Survey (CMS) data from April 2004 to February 2015. Our models predict party vote shares three months prior to the election, using previous support levels, national economic evaluations, macro-partisanship and political measures. Our Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) methodology allows us to predict support for the Tories, Labour, Liberal Democrats and “other” parties, separately, yet simultaneously, by constraining total support for all parties to 100%. Our model, estimated with data from February 2015, predicts that Labour will win the highest vote share in Great Britain, but that no party will win a majority of seats in parliament.     

From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2015 British general election

This paper develops a three-stage method to forecast parliamentary election results from vote preferences in British opinion polls: (1) adjusting and aggregating vote-intentions from different polling organizations; (2) forecasting how public support for parties will change in the period before election day; and (3) translating, through simulations, the forecast of election day vote shares into seat totals while incorporating constituency-level information, including local vote-intention polls. Overall, this approach seeks to combine relevant national, regional and local information, and uncertainty about that information, to better reflect the fragmentation and diversity of political contexts found in the new era of five/six-party British politics.     

Economic globalisation,the perceived room to manoeuvre of national governments,and electoral participation: Evidence from the 2001 British General Election

Recent macro-level research argues that economic globalisation negatively affects electoral turnout by constraining the leeway of national governments and thereby rendering elections less meaningful to voters. This article analyses the link between perceptions of the national government's room to manoeuvre and turnout on the individual level. Drawing on the 2001 British General Election, it is shown that citizens who believe that economic globalisation leaves the national government with less influence on the economy are less likely to report to have voted. Further findings also support the proposed theoretical model according to which room to manoeuvre perceptions affect turnout via views on the importance of elections and matter specifically for citizens that tend towards the left side of the left-right scale.     

Finland's Parliamentary Election 2015: Certainty of the Result with Uncertainty of the Outcome

The winner of the Finnish parliamentary election 2015 was certain long before the elections. The Centre Party of Finland would win, but for the composition of the government and future societal changes, it was more interesting who would be the runners-up. With eight parliamentary parties and with eight different political agendas, the Finnish political system forms a hard to predict political landscape. Key issues for the Centre Party, rebounding from the catastrophic elections of 2011, were to find a coalition with trust between its members and to generate trust in getting things done. One evident societal outcome of the election is the deceleration of centralization policies furthered by the previous government. The disagreement over regional politics and devolution and related cleavages within the country brought the coalition government between the Centre Party, the National Coalition Party and the Finns Party to the verge of falling after only six months.