Nowcasting V. polling: The 2010 UK election trials

This paper first offers a final forecast for the May 2010 UK general election based on our “two-step model” [Nadeau, R., Lewis-Beck, M.S., Bélanger, É., 2009. Election forecasting in the United Kingdom: a two-step model. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 19, 333-358.]. That model is then used to explore a new technique, “nowcasting.” We examine our model “nowcasts,” comparing it to the classic forecasting strategy of the vote intention poll, across the contemporary election period, 2005-2010. As is shown, nowcasting offers forecasting advantages that simple polling does not. Most notably, the nowcast provides variation that appears much more subject to substantive explanation of the electoral cycle, and it provides predictions with a three-month lead.     

论普选对香港特区政府的影响

即将实行的香港普选,既符合人民主权原则,也使特区政府面临中央和民众的"双重问责"。一方面,当行政决策的地方主体性被加强的同时,特区政府必须处理好与中央意志的平衡问题;另一方面,普选将推动政党、压力团体和民众的广泛政治参与,通过监督决策过程和效果,促使政务公开和透明,使特区政府更加民主和谨慎决策。     

普京两次总统竞选纲领之比较

1999年底和2012年初,普京两次参加俄罗斯总统竞选,两次提出客观冷静、直面问题、聚拢民心的竞选纲领,系统回答了俄罗斯现状、世界局势和俄罗斯向何处去的问题。普京两次高票获胜后,其竞选纲领就成为施政纲领,成为团结和引领俄罗斯人民建设国家的重要文件。比较两份纲领,能够看出间隔12年普京对国际环境和俄罗斯地位的判断不同、对国家作用的认识发生了改变、提出的经济发展模式也不同,但在危机意识、强调独立发展和团结一致重建俄罗斯等方面则有延续性。     

So Close and Yet So Far: Strategies in the 13th Malaysian Elections

Abstract

This article examines the strategies employed by the ruling coalition, Barisan Nasional (or National Front), and the opposition alliance, Pakatan Rakyat (People’s Alliance), in the 13th general election held in Malaysia in May 2013. It argues that while the opposition used the right strategy for the 2013 campaign, it lost because it could not overcome the three biggest hurdles for opposition politics in Malaysia: East Malaysia, the rural Malay votes and a biased electoral system.     

Legislative Dissent without Reprisal? An Alternative View of Speaker Selection

Very little research has been devoted to examining the nature of Speaker selection in legislatures. This article attempts to provide a new perspective in which future research could examine the election of Speakers. A collective action perspective is put forward, which sees three groups of actors execute separate strategies to reach their own ends: the backbench, the executive and the opposition. These factors are tested on the Speaker selection exercises in the Ontario legislature. In the case study, it was found that the executive rarely gets their choice of Speaker, and three factors identified in the legislative dissent literature are utilised to examine these private acts of dissent: party popularity, cabinet size and the percentage of new legislators entering the party at each legislative term. It was found that the Speaker selection process involves three groups, each with their own preference order in decision-making.     

Political Marketing Research in the 2000 U.S. Election

Abstract

It is not news that polls and other forms of marketing research are regularly employed to craft political strategy. What is new is that the 2000 U.S. election represented a turning point where political marketing research seems to take center stage. The print and broadcast media employed polls and other forms of research at levels far beyond anything ever seen before. At times, it appeared as if almost as much attention was being given to polls as was being given to the political candidates and the issues. This was clearly a new and important posturing of the role of political marketing research. With this as a backdrop, the current article compares polls and other forms of political research-focusing on what went wrong and what was right in terms of the use of polls, focus groups and Internet research during the 2000 U.S. election. The article ends with the presentation of some exploratory research that examines insights about respondents' opinions regarding the impact of political polls.     

The 2000 American Presidential Election

Abstract

The 2000 Presidential election was one of the longest, most expensive and closest in American history. It was the Presidential election that exposed the flaws (or genius) of the electoral college system, demonstrated the imperfections of media dependency on exit polls and quick election calling, and showed how a third party candidate with just two percent of the popular vote could make the difference in the crucial state of Florida. Democrats lost states they should have won; Republicans lost every big city and most of their suburbs; and the Florida election came down to a five-to-four muddled decision by the Supreme Court. Americans collectively learned a great civics lesson: that even in a bitter, controversial contest, our candidates accept defeat graciously; the simple act of voting is not so simple; and that for all its shortcomings, the electoral college did work.     

Professionalised Campaigning in Latin America

Abstract

This paper analyses the process of democratisation within Latin American by focusing on the nature of election campaigning in the region. Particular attention is paid to developments in three former military dictatorships, which now regularly hold elections. The states are Argentina, Chile and Uruguay, and consideration is given to the insights and limitations of applying the “Americanisation” or modernisation thesis in studying their distinctive media and political cultures. The elections held in each state during 1999 are used as case studies. What emerges is a complex pattern in which candidates and parties have simultaneously adopted some of the professional forms of electioneering whilst retaining and valuing the more traditional and interpersonal electioneering techniques. Furthermore, it was pointed out that there were marked differences in politicians' approaches to campaigning both between as well as within the three different political systems.     

Revisiting the Character of Congress

SUMMARY

This article examines how character assessments affected the electoral fortunes of incumbent members of the U.S. House of Representatives during the period from 1966-1996. The findings of several linear regressions suggest that party affiliation constrains both when voters react to allegations of scandalous behavior and how they react to different kinds of allegations. The electoral cycle assists incumbent members who have engaged in scandalous behavior escape retribution from their constituents, allowing the majority to be reelected. Also reviewed are findings from the 1998-2002 timeframe. It concludes that voters do concern themselves with character issues, but that the party affiliation of the member and the type of scandal work in concert with the electoral process to mitigate the negative impact on the vote.