培育民族地区能源支柱产业的理论及实证研究——以贵州省少数民族地区为例

在经济转轨、经济发展模式变化的形势下,遵循经济发展理论,结合少数民族地区的实际,发挥其能源资源禀赋优势,培育能源支柱产业,实现其资源优势最大化,是促进少数民族地区经济发展社会进步的必然选择。     

“智慧城市”背景下的城市公交安全问题研究

随着中国城市化进程的不断加快,"智慧城市"建设方兴未艾,从理念、技术、标准等方面实现了对"城市安全"的全面提升,成为新时代中国城市发展的战略新选择。在城市公交安全方面,面对城市公交暴力升级、冲突频发、犯因复杂、防范困难等问题,智慧城市为解决系列难题提供了新思路:既要眼光向内强质效,加快公交运营智能化,实现"智能公交"与"公交都市"战略的同步推进,大力推动辅助驾驶系统的智能升级、安全防范设施的智能改造和便民服务系统的智能推广;又要共建共享寻合作,构建安全保障共同体,寻求"智能公交"与"智慧警务"的协同创新,促进二者在安防技术联网互通、安全数据实时共享和安全协同合作平台等方面的联合革新。     

Local Renewable Energy Initiatives in Germany and Japan in a Changing National Policy Environment

Our article explores the contribution of local initiatives to the creation of path dependencies for energy transition in Germany and Japan in the face of resistance from entrenched incumbents at the national level. We use a process‐tracing methodology based partly on interviews with local participants. In particular, we explore the role of local initiatives in securing “socio‐political space” for the expansion of renewable energy (RE) and in embedding themselves in “ecosystems” of public and private institutions. German energy activists were more successful than their Japanese counterparts in expanding this space and creating positive feedback in part because they were able to build horizontal networks that anchored the energy transition firmly in local communities. Although problems with grid technology have led to retrenchment in both cases, Japanese activists' reliance on vertical networks has limited their ability to weather a backlash from national government and utility actors. Our study demonstrates the interaction of political, economic/technological, and legitimation paths to energy transition and highlights the importance of the latter two.     

产业联盟与“能源诅咒”:委内瑞拉与俄罗斯的现代化“宿命”

古典经济学认为,能源大规模出口的财富效应有助于推动出口国的经济增长,然而20世纪70年代以来世界主要能源出口国经济增长普遍放缓甚至停滞的残酷现实表明,丰富的能源很可能并非推动经济增长的"祝福",而是拖累经济的"诅咒"。为了探讨诱使能源出口国陷入"能源诅咒"的原因及其作用机制,本文基于产业联盟理论建立了涵盖能源出口国现代化起点、政体类型、出口条件的分析框架,重点分析上述三个因素对能源产业联盟实力强弱的影响。通过对能源出口国主要政治与经济数据的定量分析以及对委内瑞拉和俄罗斯陷入"能源诅咒"的案例研究,本文发现,能源出口国的现代化起点较晚、实行威权政体、出口条件改善催生了强大的能源产业联盟,并巩固和扩大了其相较于其他产业联盟的实力差距。强大的能源产业联盟贡献了巨额税汇、提供了畸形补贴、左右了选举结果,由此诱使政府与政治家对其形成了病态的依赖,限制了其他产业的发展并最终拖累了经济增长。     

Opposing Energy Transitions: Modeling the Contested Nature of Energy Transitions in the Electricity Sector

Energy transitions are fiercely contested. The incumbents of the fossil‐ and nuclear‐based energy systems have much to lose from a transition to a sustainable and decentralized energy system. They therefore employ their material and political resources to reverse, halt, or slow down this transition. They also attempt to stop and reverse the decentralization of energy production. This article provides a framework that can be used to analyze the contestation that surrounds energy transitions. The analytical framework breaks apart the macro paths of energy transitions, and differentiates between three meso‐paths (political, economic‐technological, and legitimation), emphasizes the feedback processes between these paths, and acknowledges the crucial role that actors play in engendering these feedback processes. It uses Germany as a case study to illustrate the analytical model. It also provides hypotheses that will be tested in the subsequent contributions to this special issue.     

Infrastructure projects and rural politics in northern Kenya: the use of divergent expertise to negotiate the terms of land deals for transport infrastructure

In 2012, construction began on the Lamu Port–South Sudan–Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) corridor in northern Kenya. Once complete, LAPSSET will connect Kenya, South Sudan and Ethiopia with a new transport infrastructure, including a highway, railway and pipeline. Authorities promise that LAPSSET will drive economic growth by improving trade and attracting investors while also stimulating development in rural areas surrounding transport routes. Despite this promise, many rural land users remain concerned about how LAPSSET stands to alter their access to and control over land. This contribution reflects on how these rural groups are attempting to negotiate proposed land-use changes for LAPSSET by creating and deploying expertise that challenges authorities’ claims about the costs and benefits of the corridor for rural landscapes and communities. The analysis shows that just as expertise can be constructed and circulated ‘from above’ to legitimise land deals for transport infrastructure, counter-claims can be produced and mobilised by rural land users to unsettle these land deals. This paper contributes to recent research that examines the specific strategies used by rural actors to influence proposed land-use changes, as well as research that considers how power inequalities shape and constrain the ability of different rural groups to negotiate the terms of land deals to their own advantage.     

优化中国能源结构的政策研究

大力调整和优化中国能源结构,要在进一步实施节能优先战略的基础上,实行能源多元化、清洁化发展。陔史主要从健全政策法规,保障能源结构优化;完善市场机制,推动能源结构优化;运用先进能源技术,实现能源结构优化三个方面提出了中国能源结构优化的政策措施。     

North Korea’s Resurgence and China’s Rise: Implications for the Future of Northeast Asian Security

Today, Northeast Asia’s security situation is changing rapidly. North Korea is reviving and China’s power is growing at an alarming rate. While the U.S. continues to suffer diplomatically and militarily in the Middle East and from international terrorism, China’s and North Korea’s power is likely to futher increase, polarizing the Northeast Asian security structure, with South Korea, Japan (and Taiwan) all allied with the U.S. versus North Korea allied with China. The liberal democracies should pursue peace with North Korea and China to preclude the situation from aggravating, but should be ready in the longer term to meet, in diverse ways including strengthening their alliances, the challenges posed by rising powers.

Power Sector Reforms and Technical Performance: Good News from an Instrumental Variable Analysis

Over the past three decades, various power sector reforms have overhauled the governance of electricity generation, transmission, and distribution in almost a hundred countries. Have these reforms produced benefits? Using instrumental variables, we improve upon earlier studies and demonstrate that power sector reforms enacted between 1982 and 2008 have both had large positive effects on the availability of generation capacity and reduced transmission and distribution losses. We also show that the positive effects on generation capacity are pronounced in developing countries and that hybrid reforms falling short of privatization and free competition are effective in improving generation capacity in particular. Overall, the results show that these reforms are an effective tool to remove an important constraint on economic growth.