美国霸权与中国崛起

在分析美国霸权与中国崛起的关系时,可以得出3点结论。首先,在相当长的时间内,中国崛起对美国的机制霸权、经济霸权、政治和意识形态霸权、军事霸权都不构成严重挑战;在美国构筑的全球霸权体系下,中国也还有相当大的崛起空间。其次,中国崛起对美国在亚太地区的霸权地位形成结构性的挑战。最后,从思维框架上说,我们既不能丢弃对国际权力格局的传统分析方法,以为信息和思想的沟通以及经济等领域的国际合作能够自然生成国家间的友好关系,消解国际冲突,也不能忽略国家及其以下的行为体的主观能动作用,以为权力格局的变化必然造成国际秩序的混乱。现在,中美领导人都认识到两国相互对抗的危害性,因此中美关系有望继续维持稳定,并逐渐建立起更为稳定的战略框架。     

Police professionalism and cynicism reconsidered: An assessment of measurement issues

A hierarchical logistic model is used to analyze data on Three Strikes-eligible offenders in California and the counties in which they are sentenced. The analysis finds that discretion is widely exercised by elected prosecutors and judges in the administration of Three Strikes. Discretion functions as a “safety valve” and preserves some sentencing proportionality, but may also allow political concerns to influence sentencing decisions. A more conservative political environment is strongly associated with stricter application of the law. Consistent with racial threat theory, eligible felons are more likely to receive Three Strikes sentences in counties with larger Latino populations. However, the size of the black population has no significant effect. Higher unemployment rates are associated with more stringent application of the law. Prosecutorial and judicial discretion benefits offenders unequally. Controlling for legally relevant factors, black offenders are more likely to receive Three Strikes sentences, while younger ones are less likely.     

先秦至唐宋时期武陵地区民族关系简论

早在先秦时期,巴人和三苗的一支即已在武陵地区生存繁衍,发展成为现今武陵地区的两大主体民族:土家族和苗族。自汉代起,汉人就以相当的规模进入本地区。持续的人口流动奠定了现今武陵地区以土家族、苗族、汉族为主体,各民族大杂居、小聚居的分布格局。在长期的历史进程中,各民族间形成了共生共存、博弈互惠的密切关系。     

国内外学界关于1949-1978年两岸关系的研究综述

台湾问题是中国的内政问题，1949年新中国成立以来，中国共产党与中国国民党围绕台湾问题进行了长达30年的武力对峙。在新中国成立的第一个30年内，对台政策是中国政府内政、外交生活的重要主题之一。数十年来，国内外学者对这一时期的两岸关系、对台政策、中美关系等进行了较为深人、丰富、细致的研究，为改革开放新时期“一国两制、和平统一”政策的出台，奠定了思想、政治和理论基础。     

Playing the fool in the territory of memory: Jaan Kross' autobiographical fictions of the twentieth century

A study was conducted among young Latvians to test the effects of different conceptualizations of Latvian national identity on group beliefs and on attitudes towards Russians. It was hypothesized that exposure to inclusive discourse presenting Latvia as a multicultural society rather than an ethnic homeland would have a direct negative effect on feelings of vulnerability, injustice, distrust, superiority and helplessness with regard to the Latvian nation and a positive effect on attitudes towards Russians. The hypothesis was tested in one survey study conducted in Riga among ethnic Latvians (N?=?150).     

Means,Motives and Opportunities in Ethno-Nationalist Mobilization

Building on the most important theoretical tools from the literatures on social movements and nationalism, we propose a model of the intensity of nationalist political behavior in which a community's means, motives, and opportunities assume the central roles in the initiation and escalation of nationalist contentious politics. We then test this model using multinomial logit on original data from the seventeen autonomous communities of Spain over a twenty-year period. The results demonstrate that the means, motives, and opportunities assume vital, yet nonlinear, roles in determining a community's level of electoral, violent, and nonviolent contentious activity. The findings also show that there are crucial differences in what accounts for the moves to electoral contention, to protest, and to rebellion. Several of these factors are uniformly escalatory on the intensity of contention—especially repression, social mobilization, and regime change—while others, most importantly democracy, have a moderating effect on the generation of conflict. The results further imply processes of a diffusion of rebellious activities and of an organizational-level substitution effect between violent and nonviolent forms of political behavior. At the aggregate community level, however, escalation in contention involves a “cumulative effect” rather than a classic “substitution effect.”     

Hearing the voice of Donbas: art and literature as forms of cultural protest during war

This paper analyzes literary, visual, and street art works of writers and artists from Eastern Ukraine produced during 2014. Two Donetsk artists, Serhii Zakharov and Anzhela Dzherikh, and two Luhansk writers, Serhii Zhadan and Olena Stepova, play with the myth of the proletarian Donbas, on the one hand, and debunk the popular perception of Donbas people as being in consent with the politics of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, on the other. They explore familiar tropes and images of Donbas and use guerrilla tactics (shock effects, provocativeness, and deception) to initiate public reaction to the war. Their works are united by their search for a shared communication space and direct access to the audience on occupied territories. These artists challenge the accepted perception of Donbas as a free but uncivilized space and participate in the creation of a new Donbas text. The interaction between politics, art, and activism makes their voices and vision powerful and infectious and can help achieve civic consolidation in Donbas.     

积极构建和谐劳动关系 努力维护职工队伍稳定——访内蒙古自治区总工会副主席姜言文

工会是党领导下的工人阶级群众组织,紧紧围绕党和国家的大局开展工作,努力维护职工队伍和社会稳定,是工会组织义不容辞的责任.近年来,在开放、多元的社会环境和信息化条件下,面对劳动关系领域出现的新情况、新变化,内蒙古自治区各级工会组织始终把维护稳定作为工会工作的重要内容,采取有效措施,努力把中央、自治区党委和全国总工会关于维稳工作的各项要求切实落到实处,在推动保障和改善民生,维护职工队伍和社会稳定等方面发挥了积极作用.     

边疆民族地区乡村振兴战略实施模式研究 基于协同治理的视角

乡村振兴战略政策的落实,对边疆民族地区全面建成小康社会至关重要。文章选取边疆民族地区耿马自治县及M村中关于乡村振兴战略实施的政策文本内容为分析对象,运用R软件进行关键词提取、绘制聚类图谱,采用Nvivo软件进行编码、词频统计和词云制作。结果显示,边疆民族地区乡村振兴战略政策实施的主题包括:新农村建设、“三农”工作、农村生态环境保护、农村社会发展等热点问题。在此基础之上,文章总结出边疆民族地区乡村振兴战略政策实施模式的基本架构。最后,从协同治理理论的视角,提出以政策协同、项目协同、服务协同为分析框架,以乡村社会体制吸纳为着力点,实现生态共治的现代化乡村治理模式。     

The Taliban: a new proxy for Iran in Afghanistan?

Abstract

Iran has pursued a highly contradictory policy towards Afghanistan. On the one hand, it became a significant beneficiary of the overthrow of the Taliban regime by the US-led military intervention in 2001 in Afghanistan. The new Afghan government established cordial ties with Iran, allowing it to expand its political, economic and cultural influence in the country. Yet Iran has also provided significant support to the Taliban in its campaign to violently upend the political, social and economic processes in the country. This article examines the underlying domestic and regional security dynamics that contribute to this contradictory behaviour. It offers an assessment of how tensions between the United States and the Islamic Republic, as well as Tehran’s growing threat perception following the rise of the Islamic State – Khorasan in 2014, impact on Iran’s policy towards the Taliban. The paper argues that Tehran views the Taliban as an instrument to disrupt the influence of other actors in Afghanistan. The instrumentalisation of the Taliban, however, is likely to be counterproductive for Iranian security in the long run as it contributes to Afghanistan’s instability and insecurity and undermines Iran’s own long-term interests.