论苏联解体后的“核遗产”及核扩散危机

苏联解体后其庞大的核武库也一分为四,在核武器系统、核材料、核科学家及核技术等三个层次都出现了失控的核扩散危机。以美国为首的国际社会从各个方面给予了大力援助,使前苏联庞大的"核遗产"得到了妥善的处理。因苏联解体而一度出现的核国家增多的问题得以解决,核扩散危机也基本得到消除。这不仅有效地捍卫了国际核不扩散体制,而且在实践上也是对国际核不扩散机制的补充和发展,对人类社会的和平与安全也是重大的贡献。当朝鲜和伊朗核问题屡成危机而长期困扰国际社会时,我们重温这段历史,也具有深刻的现实意义。     

金融业是“社会经济”发展的“主导力量”

我国参加“WTO”以后 ,对我国冲击最大的应是金融业。我国金融业市场化程度最低 ,但它又在经济社会发展中作用最大。金融业有自身发展的规律 ,它应突破“存、贷、汇”的限制 ,走上以资本经营为主体的更大市场。金融市场的发展在客观上给社会更多的选择余地 ,分散了金融风险。金融风险是市场风险的一种 ,风险并不等于是危机。金融危机大体上有三种类型 :一是支付危机 ,二是股市危机 ,三是汇市危机。只要经济平稳发展 ,政策对头 ,危机一般都可避免。资本市场不宜过早开放 ,应以监管能力的配套为前提     

Food riots and the politics of provisions from early modern Europe and China to the food crisis of 2008

The food riots of 2007–2008 jolted authoritarian regimes and international agencies into action. The riots also began to crack neoliberal hegemony over the global food system. Food riots have often driven a politics of provisions, sometimes winning relief, sometimes merely bloody repression, depending on a particular country’s political economy. Such bargaining in the politics of provisions is made possible by existing networks – of solidarity among the common people and reciprocity between them and their rulers – that extend elements of ‘normal’ politics into crises. This paper explores how riotous extensions of such sociopolitical networks shaped food politics in early modern England and China, Famine Ireland, the ‘IMF (International Monetary Fund) austerity riots’ of the 1980s and 1990s, and the food riots of 2007–2008.     

Social Movements and the Construction of Crisis Actors: Collective Responsibility,Identity, and Governance

This article examines the Europeanization of social movements following the European sovereign debt crisis. It develops a theoretical framework to measure degrees of social movement Europeanization, incorporating targets, participants, and issue frame dimensions of mobilization. Europeanization of social movements occurs when they collaborate with similar movements in other countries, claim a European identity, invoke Europe-wide solidarity, contest authorities beyond the state and ascribe responsibility for solving the crisis to European Union (EU). By targeting EU authorities, social movements may contribute to the construction of the EU as a crisis actor and through deliberative processes define the roles and identities of such actors.     

Perhaps this time it's different: ideas and interests in shaping international responses to financial crises

The experience of the recent two decades of financial crises shows that donor countries and international financial institutions (IFIs) can respond to a crisis in a peripheral open economy by either of two crisis management strategies: either they can impose harsh conditionality to fix the domestic economy and prevent future moral hazard problems, or they can provide last-resort credit to restore market confidence. In some cases, the crisis management strategy changes as the crisis evolves. What are the factors that determine the choice of key donor countries and IFIs? This article traces the processes by which the USA and the International Monetary Fund designed the crisis management strategy in respect to the Asian crisis, and how Germany and the European Central Bank designed the response to the eurozone crisis, in order to understand how ideas regarding the causes and solutions of a financial crisis interact with the interests of key donor countries. The article argues that in both cases ideas and interests are mutually constituted, but in each case the mechanism that linked ideas and interests was different: whereas in the Asian case US interests led to policy innovation and experimentation and to a change in the crisis management strategy, in the European case ideas played a greater role in shaping German interests. The article explains this difference on the basis of the lessons learned by IFIs from the Asian crisis, which were then implemented in the eurozone case.     

警察临战:和谐目标下的危机管理

加强公共危机管理是构建和谐社会的重要内容。警察临战是公共危机管理的重要组成部分,它为公共危机管理决策提供服务,为公共危机管理提供资源保障,它是公共危机管理的重要手段。危机管理是警察临战学的理论基础。     

中东欧国家与冷战后北约的新变化

冷战结束后,北约并未因对手的消失而瓦解,而是通过扩大组织、出台新战略和实施新行动找到生存依据并获得新的发展。在北约的新扩大、新战略和新行动中,中东欧国家不管是主动参与还是被动接受,都起到了不可低估的作用。中东欧国家的加入令北约成员国从16个增至30个,拓展了北约的疆域。东欧剧变带来的国际局势的变化,特别是前南斯拉夫地区发生的战争促使北约提出新的战略概念,波黑战争、科索沃战争和马其顿危机更是成为北约新战略的试验场。中东欧国家参与了北约在波黑、科索沃、阿富汗和伊拉克的行动以及乌克兰危机发生后针对俄罗斯的军事部署,做出独有的贡献。同时,中东欧国家的加入也给北约在决策效率、行动能力、责任分担和价值观方面带来新的挑战。不过,由于中东欧国家的军事力量和国家实力有限,在北约内部的影响力不大,这些挑战不足以危及北约的生存。     

Errors have been made,others will be blamed: Issue engagement and blame shifting in prime minister speeches during the economic crisis in Europe

This article investigates prime ministers’ communication strategies during the most recent economic crisis in Europe. It argues that when electoral risk is high but governments’ policy options are severely limited, prime ministers will use specific communication strategies to mitigate electoral risks. Two such communication strategies are analysed – issue engagement and blame shifting – by applying state-of-the-art quantitative text analysis methods on 5,553 speeches of prime ministers in nine European Union member states. Evidence is found for both strategies. Prime ministers talk about the economy more in response to both high (domestic) unemployment and low (domestic) gross domestic product growth. Furthermore, it is found that the (domestic) unemployment rate is the most consistent predictor of blame shifting: as the domestic unemployment rate goes up, this is followed by an increase in blame shifting towards banks, Greece and the Troika of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.     

Increased economic salience or blurring of responsibility? Economic voting during the Great Recession

There is a puzzle which emerged following the Eurozone crisis: whereas the salience of the economy suggests an increase in economic voting, the realization that economic policies have become Europeanised may blur the responsibility of national governments, thus decreasing economic perceptions' weight on electoral choices. Do these mechanisms exclude each other? Do they refer to different groups of the electorate? We first examine the longitudinal trends of economic voting from 2002 to 2015 in three bailed out countries, namely Ireland, Portugal and Spain, to see if the economy's salience during the Great Recession increased the relevance of the economic perceptions in these countries. Secondly, making use of a unique media dataset of the last 16 years we test whether exposure to major mainstream newspapers that focus on the EU mitigates economic voting. On average, economic voting increased following the crisis. However, individuals who are more informed about the EU tend to use economic voting to a lesser extent, given they are more aware of the national government's limited room for manoeuvre.     

公共危机管理视角下的应急警务

SARS危机以后,传统政府治理模式下的公共危机管理和应急体系受到了普遍的质疑。随着政府应急体制、机制、法制建设的不断发展完善,突发事件中的应急警务在训练、应急备勤、信息披露等方面发生了重大变化。从公共危机管理的视角而言,应急警务是公共危机管理的重要环节之一。公共危机管理理论为应急警务研究提供了必需的理论依据;在行动逻辑、法律规制、组织建构、应急技术等方面为应急警务的相关研究提供了更为广阔的空间。