Monitoring the rise of a radical force: the British Embassy in Athens and the Ascent of the Greek Panhellenic Socialist Movement, 1974–1981*

The article deals with perceptions, conceptions and policy implementation of British diplomacy towards the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) from its formation in 1974 until its first rise into power in 1981. PASOK, a political movement that was to dominate Greek politics for more than twenty years, entered the Greek political scene as a new, radical force that threatened Western values and interests and aspired to reshape the international orientation of the country, in a period of high Cold War tensions. It will be shown that British diplomacy, despite its opposition to PASOK, was forced by political realities to modify its policy significantly, in order to accommodate PASOK and preserve its interests in a country that was considered as a vital ally of the Western world.     

再论核禁忌

“核禁忌”作为一种道德规范是具有感召力的。然而,“核禁忌”理论本身存在诸多矛盾和谬误之处。不使用核武器并没有成为一种普遍的禁止性规范,“核禁忌”也无法削弱核威慑的意义。从历史经验看,尽管自广岛、长崎之后核武器再也没有被使用过,但许多决策者都有过使用核武器的想法。只是根据理性分析、权衡利弊之后放弃了这一选择。而从政治心理学的层面分析,“核禁忌”理论显然夸大了单一规范在决策过程中的影响力。尤其在不同的利益相互冲突的场景下,国家安全往往具有压倒性的地位。事实上,冷战后的全球核态势发展并没有受到这种禁忌的束缚,却时而出现倾向于使用核武器的势头。近年来,美国正对其核武库进行现代化升级并积极研发新型核武器。以美俄为代表的核大国也通过调整自身的核战略为可能实施的核打击大开方便之门。似是而非的“核禁忌”实际上反而增强了核威慑的必要性。虽然“核禁忌”在推动一系列核军控条约以及扩大无核武器区的建设过程中起到了一定的作用,但单纯依靠观念的力量并不能引领人类走向无核世界。只要引发地区冲突和安全困境的政治根源得不到化解,核武器作为战争的工具之一就有可能被使用。而为了确保国家安全和战略稳定,核威慑的必要性在短期内仍然无可替代。     

Protecting people's livelihoods,restarting nuclear reactors: ‘risk recalibration’ in Prime Minister Noda's 8 June 2012 national address

Given popular concerns about nuclear accidents in the wake of the Fukushima disaster, the Japanese state shut down the last of its fifty-four reactors for inspections on 5 May 2012, the first time the country had been without nuclear energy since May 1970. However, on 8 June 2012, in a nationwide address, Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko justified a resumption of nuclear power generation at the Oi nuclear plant in Oimachi, Fukui Prefecture. This article examines Noda's speech as an example of ‘risk recalibration’. The first section outlines the underlying theoretical assumptions, while the second section provides the context behind the speech. This involved the input of political, economic and social actors as they vied for policy influence. The third section then analyses the risk rationality used in the speech itself. The argument is that while the speech is an important example of risk rationality operating through discourse as a medium of power, the overall ‘recalibration’ runs contrary to what recent studies have shown in other areas. In short, it is held that the speech follows a more traditional paternalistic logic of centralized risk management rather than a neoliberal logic of ‘individual responsibility’.     

中国东盟自由贸易区谈判与运作：艰巨性初探

本文从主客观两个方面分析并预测中国东盟自由贸易区谈判与运作的艰巨性与曲折性。文章认为,阻滞10+1谈判与运作的因素主要缘于自由贸易区的参与主体在政治体制与意识形态、经济发展水平与发展机制、生产力要素等方面所存在的巨大差异,以及错综复杂的区域内国际关系。文章还认为,由中国政府率先提出的在2010年建成中国东盟自由贸易区的主要目的是在21世纪新的国际政治经济条件下,实现中国与周边邻国更为密切的“睦邻”关系。为实现10+1对中国政治意义的最大化,文章对规避10+1运作的负面影响提出了一系列建议。     

Uzbekistan's diplomacy in the modern international relations system

The article is dedicated to the issue of Uzbekistan's diplomacy in the 21st century. It shows the evolutional path of Uzbek diplomacy that plays an important role in pursuing national interests on the global scale in the framework of foreign policy. Article shows that Uzbekistan has clearly defined foreign policy priorities; it will follow in the foreseeable future. Such aspects as more active participation in the multilateral cooperation and at the same time retaining healthy pragmatism as a result of pursuing bilateral relations both with neighboring countries and great powers are also underlined. The main advantage and novelty of the article are that the author provides clear‐cut periodization of Uzbekistan's diplomacy—a feature that has never been met in any of Uzbek or foreign researches. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Policy Change,Policy Feedback,and Interest Mobilization: The Politics of Nuclear Waste Management

Many of the leading theories of the policy process are aimed at providing insights into the factors that make policy change more (or less) likely. In general, policy change is seen as a result of shifting dynamics within policy subsystems. However, building on theories of policy feedback and interest mobilization, this article examines whether policy change, apart from being an effect of subsystem dynamics, can be a cause of shifting dynamics as latent actors are motivated to participate in the subsystem as a result of policy change. Two hypotheses regarding post‐policy change mobilization are developed and tested using data on participation in congressional hearings concerning the management of nuclear waste. The findings suggest that policy change can activate latent policy actors, specifically those actors that view themselves as “losing” as a result of the policy change. These results point to the need for scholars to examine the potential impacts of post‐policy change dynamics on policy development.     

A battle of principles: South Africa's relations with Iran

This paper provides a detailed case study and theoretical explanation for one of the least appreciated bilateral relationships of democratic South Africa. It analyses South Africa's post-apartheid relations with Iran as a case study to illustrate and discuss the contradictory principles that appear to guide South Africa's foreign policy. South Africa's tempered reaction to Iran's nuclear programme is in contradiction with its non-proliferation stance, but can be understood by looking into the ideology of the ruling African National Congress.     

Sub-state diplomacy and the foreign policy-development nexus in South Africa

This article examines the role of sub-state diplomacy, defined as the transnational linkages of sub-national governments, in bridging the gap between foreign policy and the domestic development agenda in South Africa. It argues that, as territorial sub-state actors, provinces and municipalities are strategically positioned to use their international relations to make foreign policy more responsive to domestic socio-economic priorities. In the South African case, however, this potential is yet to be fully realised, mainly because of institutional fragmentation of the foreign policy apparatus, but also owing to enduring challenges in the foreign activities of sub-national governments. The article concludes by making the case for a new diplomatic paradigm in South Africa, one that actively promotes and harnesses the foreign activities and capacities of different national stakeholders, including those of sub-national governments, in the interest of the domestic development agenda.     

Recouping after Coup-Proofing: Compromised Military Effectiveness and Strategic Substitution

In order to counter the threat of a coup, states often undertake a number of strategies to “coup-proof” their militaries, such as creating institutional redundancy, severely limiting interbranch communications, and basing promotions on loyalty rather than merit. As a result of such policies, however, the fighting effectiveness of these armed forces is degraded, and the marginal return on military investment is greatly reduced. We argue that leaders who have coup-proofed their militaries undertake several substitution policies in order to offset their military weakness when faced with external threats. These policies include pursuing chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons and forging alliances. We find support for these theoretical predictions in quantitative tests on data with global coverage between 1970 and 2001.