《禁止核武器条约》之困境及出路

2021年1月22日起生效的《禁止核武器条约》致力于在全球范围内禁止核武器的拥有、研发、储存、转移、试验、使用或是威胁使用等行为,从而将核武器完全非法化。尽管《禁止核武器条约》反映了人道主义的关怀和无核世界的愿景,但该条约无论是在理论层面还是在现实层面都面临着不小的困境。从理论上看,《禁止核武器条约》以确立禁核规范来推动国际社会所有成员国弃核的逻辑基础并不牢固,因为规范可能退化甚至被颠覆,未必能够对国家产生强有力的约束。在现实层面,《禁止核武器条约》则因为全盘否定核威慑的重要性而遭到拥有核武器国家及其盟国的联合抵制,并暴露出该条约忽视部分国家的安全关切、损害国家自卫权利以及忽略裁军核查机制等不足。鉴于国际社会围绕《禁止核武器条约》产生了诸多争议,未来,该条约还是应当落脚到分步骤、渐进式的核裁军路线上来,需要在提供安全保证、区分禁核情形、建立核查机构,以及加强与不扩散国际机制兼容等方面进行完善,以促进当前核不扩散国际机制的改革和推动陷入停滞的核裁军进程的持续进行。     

同盟安全与防扩散——美国延伸威慑的可信度及其确保机制

冷战以来,美国就始终坚持推行延伸威慑战略,并将其视为最重要的防扩散工具之一。然而,这种基于经验的政策逻辑缺乏系统性的理论支持。获得美国延伸威慑保护的国家或约束自己的核扩散行为,或走上研发核武器的道路,抑或推行两面下注的核避险战略。在获得延伸威慑保护与核不扩散行为之间,并未呈现出简单的因果关系。因此,延伸威慑究竟是不是一种有效的防扩散手段以及在何种条件下才能起到防扩散的作用,便是值得深入探讨的问题。在控制外部威胁以及供给侧因素等干扰变量之后,本文发现延伸威慑的可信度是影响受保护国核扩散行为的中间变量。而可信度的变化又与美国和盟友之间建立起来的一系列确保机制相关。确保机制包括口头或书面承诺、前沿部署、核分享以及核磋商这四类措施。不同的确保措施对延伸威慑可信度的影响不同,同时也会对美国在核安全以及受牵连的问题上造成相应的影响。因此,美国及其盟友往往在确保机制的选择上有着不同的利弊偏好。冷战时期,联邦德国和韩国在同时受到外部安全威胁和美国延伸威慑保护的情况下,却采取了不同的核扩散行为,对此延伸威慑可信度及其确保机制理论做出了合理解释。总体上,由于美国与不同盟友所建立的确保机制不尽相同,从而使得延伸威慑的可信度出现差异,并最终导致盟友之间出现不同的核扩散行为。     

Looking Beyond a Nuclear-Armed Iran: Is Regional Proliferation Inevitable?

The past year has seen a steady rise in tensions with regard to Iran's nuclear programme. Iran's economy is being crippled by far-ranging sanctions and the threat of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities looms large on the horizon. Yet the country's nuclear programme marches on, stoking fears that Iran may indeed be seeking to cross the nuclear weapons threshold. In this context, it is timely to consider how key regional players would respond to a nuclear-armed Iran. Many argue that an Iranian bomb would prompt a proliferation cascade in the Middle East. However, a closer examination of the drivers for key regional players shows that this is not necessarily the case. There is a range of non-proliferation tools that could be applied by the West and others to offset this risk.     

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South Africa's status and prestige as a country that successfully and unilaterally disarmed its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programme enabled it to engage with the Saddam government of Iraq in the months leading up to the US-led invasion of March 2003. Following intense international diplomatic efforts, Saddam Hussein had agreed to allow UN and International Atomic Energy Agency weapons inspectors to enter Iraq in November 2002. Acting outside the UN Security Council, the US and its coalition partners maintained that Iraq continued to maintain and produce WMD, a claim refuted by weapons inspectors, including a South African disarmament team that visited Iraq in February 2003. Employing three diplomatic strategies associated with niche diplomacy, South Africa contributed to attempts to avert the invasion by assisting with the orderly disarmament of Saddam-led Iraq and by practising multilateralism. These strategies, notwithstanding the US-led invasion signalling a failure of South Africa's niche diplomacy in this instance, provide valuable insight into the nuclear diplomacy of South Africa.     

Endangering alliance or risking proliferation?: US–Japan and US–Korea nuclear energy cooperation agreements

This paper seeks to understand why the United States treated Japan and Korea differently in the revisions of bilateral nuclear cooperation agreements. On the sensitive issue of grating its allies the rights of developing enrichment and reprocessing (ENR), the United States did so for Japan in the 1977 and 1987 revisions, but did not for Korea during the 2015 revision. For the great power as a supplier state, there are two factors affecting the decision: policy-makers’ concern about alliance management prior to the calculation of security outcome, and firms’ commercial interests. In order to avoid damage to the US–Japan alliance and to maintain Japan's complementation for the US nuclear industry, Washington granted the rights of ENR to Tokyo. In contrast, because of its confidence of managing the US–Korea alliance and partly because of incompatibility of commercial interests between the two, Washington did not grant the rights to Seoul at the 2015 revision. Based on the comparison of the two cases, this paper underscores a need to alter the power projection theory regarding nuclear proliferation by explicating the alliance management as the ex ante element of power projection and by accounting for commercial interests such as fuel sale and technological partnership.     

《核不扩散条约》缔约国和平利用核能的权利探究——以伊朗为例

近来,伊朗所声称的和平利用核能的活动引起了国际社会的强烈反应。在国际原子能机构框架内解决该问题的努力失败后,该问题被移交到联合国安理会。安理会已三次通过决议要求伊朗停止铀浓缩,并逐步加强了对伊朗的制裁。由于伊朗享有核主权,并且这种核主权受到《核不扩散条约》的确认,所以伊朗和平利用核能的权利具有充分的法律依据。但是伊朗和平利用核能的权利应受到三点限制:第一,权利不得滥用原则的限制;第二,《保障协定》及其《附加议定书》的限制;第三,安理会决议的限制。     

消肿方对骨关节炎兔软骨下骨成骨细胞OPG及RANKL mRNA表达的影响

目的 观察消肿方对骨关节炎兔软骨下骨成骨细胞骨保护素（osteoprotegerin,OPG）及核因子-κB受体活化因子配体（receptor activator of nuclear factor-kappa B ligand,RANKL）mRNA表达的影响。方法 将30只新西兰大耳白兔随机分为空白对照组,模型组,消肿方低、中、高剂量组,每组6只。采用改良Hulth法复制膝关节骨关节炎模型,消肿方低、中、高剂量组分别给予40、80、160 g/kg消肿方煎剂灌胃,空白对照组和模型组分别以等容积生理盐水灌胃,共28 d。光镜下观察兔膝关节关节软骨下骨成骨细胞形态,采用RT-PCR法检测OPG、RANKL mRNA的表达。结果 空白对照组与模型组OPG mRNA表达水平比较,差异无统计学意义（P<0.05）;消肿方高、中、低剂量组OPG mRNA表达水平均较模型组显著升高（P<0.05）,具有明显的剂量依赖性。模型组RANKL mRNA表达水平低于空白对照组,消肿方低、中、高剂量组RANKL mRNA表达水平较模型组逐渐降低,但差异均无统计学意义（P>0.05）;消肿方高剂量组RANKL mRNA表达水平显著低于低剂量组（P<0.05）。结论 消肿方可上调骨关节炎动物模型软骨下骨成骨细胞OPG mRNA表达,下调RANKL mRNA表达。     

Zimbabwe's troubles

This paper is situated within the global growing interest in the security of the Persian Gulf. Following the call for a pre-emptive air strike by the United States and Israel against Iran to crush or damage extensively its nuclear facilities, the debate on whether or not such an attack is justified and feasible, and what alternative strategy will yield the best result, had become of great concern among scholars around the world. This paper positions itself as an antagonist to the pre-emptive air strike option. It argues that the consequences of a pre-emptive air strike and its failure margin considering the location of the targeted facilities and the political situation in Iran have been seriously underestimated. It recommends that instead of a pre-emptive air strike, the Iranian nuclear programme crisis can be solved in a peaceful and more logical way, through technical isolation.     

The dynamics of Chinese missile proliferation

The missile nonproliferation regime has been criticized for its ineffectiveness in constraining states such as China from contributing to the proliferation of ballistic missile systems and related technologies to states in other regions. This regime is predicated on the assumption that the creation of social norms and acceptable patterns of behaviour will ultimately require China and others to conform to a universal perpective on the sources of and remedies for missile proliferation. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate that China's willingness to supply sensitive missile technology is a function of a weapons‐export policy that is incompatible with current initiatives in missile nonproliferation. Such a policy is the product of certain foreign policy considerations and domestic factors that serve as motivational elements within the internal political system.     

论中国共产党三代杰出领导核心的产生及历史地位

如何正确认识我们党历史发展过程中产生三代杰出领导核心这一历史现象,是深刻把握现代中国政治运行特点和规律不能不进行深入研究的一个重大的理论和实践问题。当前应格外珍惜和自觉维护第三代杰出领导核心的权威。