Europe and Iran’s Nuclear Issue: The Labours and Sorrows of a Supporting Actor

At the time of writing, representatives from Iran and the E3/EU+3 are trying to work out an agreement that will guarantee that Iran’s controversial nuclear programme, widely suspected of having a military purpose, serves only peaceful ends. As the negotiations enter their most crucial phase, the time is ripe to attempt an assessment of the role played by the only actor, besides Iran, that has been on stage since it all began over ten years ago: Europe. Throughout this long drama, Europe’s performance has had some brilliant moments. Yet the quality of its acting has decreased as a new protagonist, the US, has come on stage. Overall, the Europeans’ record is positive, albeit not entirely spotless.     

论戈尔什科夫的国家海上威力论及其现实意义——以海权理论为视角

苏联戈尔什科夫的国家海上威力论是海权理论在冷战期间发展的一个高峰。国家海上威力论认为大洋对人类生活具有非常重要的意义,国家有必要发展自己的海上威力。国家海上威力由海军、运输船队、捕鱼船队、科学考察船队等组成。海军的主要任务是对海作战和对陆打击等等。苏联红海军在国家海上威力论的指导下成为足以与美国海军相抗衡的强大海上武装力量。然而,国家海上威力论存在的缺陷与不足也给苏联的海权发展和海军建设带来了严重的后果,值得海权领域的学者深思。     

核事故、能源结构调整与国际气候合作

福岛核事故将对各国能源结构调整和国际气候合作产生重大影响.从短中期来看,部分国家将对核能产业实施紧缩政策,化石能源比重可能增加,在国际气候合作中作出积极减排承诺的意愿也将降低,国际气候合作可能继续陷于僵局之中.在可预见的未来,人类需要通过追求核能安全来维护能源安全和气候安全.     

Nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula: strategic adaptation,the Abe administration and extended deterrence in the face of uncertainty

Abstract

In the wake of two nuclear tests in 2016, an additional test in 2017 and a series of missile launches by North Korea in 2016–17, Japan's government is facing a critical set of security challenges. These require adaptation and careful planning by the Abe administration and raise important questions about the future of Japanese defence policy, alliance relations with the United States, and cooperation between Japan and the Republic of Korea. The following article considers both the history and current state of relations between Tokyo, Washington and Seoul, the relationship between elite and public opinion within Japan, and the character of Prime Minister Abe's leadership at a time of acute strategic risk. While the danger of conflict in northeast Asia should not be minimized, the gravity of the current crisis potentially offers an important opportunity for policy innovation for the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).     

Northeast Asian Economic Cooperation in Perspective:The Future Has Never Been Brighter

It is easy to become pessimistic about Northeast Asian economic cooperation if one follows the news day-by-day.Progress hasbeen slow,and disappointing setbacks are always sensationalized in the news media,especially those concerning the DPRK.This makesit difficult to believe that major progress in Northeast Asian cooperation is possible.However,I believe that taking a longer-term per-spective on recent events will permit us to see that there really has been considerable progress in advancing conditions that favor NortheastAsian economic cooperation.This makes it possible to assert that,after a year of leadership transitions in 2012,the prospects for furtherprogress have never been better than today.To see this point,I will compare the present situation to what existed at other moments of op-portunity in Northeast Asian economic cooperation.Each of these past moments was the result of certain hopeful developments,but inthe end they produced disappointment.The reasons why can tell us what the obstacles to success have been,and how today some funda-mental conditions have changed to favor Northeast Asian cooperation.If those old precedents and new developments are skillfully utilizedin a new era of policy moderation and stability,they could enlarge the scale and scope of positive Northeast Asian cooperation.translocal economic cooperationNortheast AsiaDPRKnuclear Sunshine PolicySix-Party talks     

朝鲜的核、导战略态势及其影响

朝鲜实施导弹发射和地下核试验,意在实现核拥有,籍以提高对美战略的筹码。朝鲜开展核战略角逐由来已久,先后展开过以守为攻;“边缘”对应;将计就计;以硬对强四个回合。角逐结果虽不乏战术上的小胜,却丧失了战略上的大胜。此番的导弹试射与地下核试验可视为第五个回合,是朝鲜核、导角逐战略“以攻为守”的转换。朝鲜执意实现核拥有纵有多种原因,却因核、导本身所拥有的“双刃剑”作用,带来于己、于他都不利的负面影响。包括:自食其言,愈加难以取信于国际社会;产生连锁反映,引发新一轮的军备竞赛;挑战核不扩散条约,难免遭到更大封杀;破坏合作气氛,延缓统一进程;置中国于尴尬境地,动摇中朝关系基础。朝鲜的“自行其事”难免遭到国际社会更加严厉的抵制。     

美日援俄处理俄太平洋舰队退役核潜艇问题之比较

冷战时期苏联建造的核潜艇到20世纪90年代大部分已经达到或超过服役期，处理数以百计的退役核潜艇对俄罗斯而言是一项艰巨的任务。争取国际社会的支持，开展国际合作是俄解决该问题的必要条件。美国和日本在该问题上的对俄合作表现比较突出，对俄援助活动异同相伴，虽有变化但合作仍为主要趋势。     

美国实战威慑核战略：理论、历史与现实

以《不扩散核武器条约》为基础的国际防扩散制度已经走过了半个世纪,如今却面临日益严峻的挑战。对于全球防扩散与核裁军进程出现的倒退,美国负有特殊的责任。这突出表现在三个相互关联的理论、历史和现实问题上。首先,经典核威慑理论并不能充分解释美国矛盾的核战略和防扩散政策。以实战威慑和延伸威慑构成的绝对自由核战略才是长期指导美国核政策实践的根本。其次,通过对20世纪50～60年代的冷战史进行再挖掘可以得知,一般认为的美国核战略在主张核武器用于实战的保守派和主张核武器仅用于威慑的自由派之间摇摆,实际上夸大了自由派对美国核战略的影响。美国在大多数总统任期内将绝对自由核战略作为拱卫其构建战后国际秩序和获得对苏联战略优势的关键。最后,核武器与非核武器的互动是当前核时代的一个显著特征。随着新技术革命的兴起,传统的核威慑和战略稳定正面临极为复杂的挑战。然而,美国依旧以核常融合、攻防兼备构筑绝对优势,并以新兴技术、跨域威慑确保全面制胜。其结果持续引发由核武器与常规武器互动、谋求技术先发优势以及追求绝对自由所导致的\"三元悖论\",从而对全球战略稳定和国际防扩散制度产生进一步冲击。     

《中导条约》与全球战略稳定论析

《中导条约》是冷战期间美苏达成的一项重要军控条约,是全球战略稳定的支柱之一。2019年8月,美俄相继退约,引发国际社会极大关注。人们担心,条约退场将冲击全球战略稳定,刺激军备竞赛,影响欧亚安全形势,削弱国际军控体系。中国是美国退约重要借口之一,条约作废势必深刻影响中国外部安全环境。《中导条约》从诞生、发展到消亡,有着深刻的国际、国内和个人三个层面的演变动因,归根结底起决定性作用的是国际格局变迁。20世纪80年代,苏美攻守异势促成了《中导条约》的诞生;进入21世纪后,北约对俄的挤压以及中导技术扩散促使俄罗斯抛出条约全球化倡议;近年来,美国霸权地位相对衰落促其选择退约。但美俄两国政治形势变化及领导人更迭也深刻影响了条约的“生、住、变、灭”的时机和方式。戈尔巴乔夫的“新思维”改革与当时高涨的核裁军运动为签署《中导条约》提供了特殊的政治、社会背景。特朗普政府奉行“美国优先”理念,频频废约“退群”,《中导条约》随之沦为牺牲品。在不同历史时期,陆基中导在全球战略稳定中所起的作用不同。在20世纪60年代初,它是美苏中央威慑的支柱。在20世纪70~80年代,它是影响延伸威慑的重要因素。进入21世纪后,它成为俄罗斯对付美国导弹防御的斗争手段。当前,陆基中导在跨域威慑中扮演日益重要的角色。大国中导博弈正卷土重来,但它必将带有与以往不同的诸多新特点。     

新藤黄酸对人胃癌SGC-7901细胞增殖抑制和诱导凋亡作用的研究

目的 观察不同浓度新藤黄酸（gambogenic acid,GNA）对人胃癌SGC-7901细胞增殖和凋亡的影响。方法 倒置光学显微镜下观察不同浓度GNA处理SGC-7901细胞24 h后细胞形态的变化;采用MTT法检测不同浓度（0.5、1.0、2.0、4.0、8.0、16.0、32.0 μmol/L）GNA处理24 h后人胃癌SGC-7901细胞活力的变化;Annexin Ⅴ-FITC/PI双染流式细胞仪检测细胞凋亡率;Western blot检测凋亡相关蛋白p53和Caspase-9的表达水平。结果 MTT检测结果表明,GNA对人胃癌SGC-7901细胞的生长和增殖有抑制作用,并随着GNA浓度的增加细胞活力明显下降。流式细胞仪检测结果提示,GNA诱导人胃癌SGC-7901细胞凋亡,随着GNA浓度增加,凋亡率逐渐增加。Western blot表明p53和Caspase-9蛋白表达水平呈浓度依赖性升高。结论 GNA能诱导人胃癌SGC-7901细胞的凋亡。