超越“确保摧毁”：核武器数量、承诺可信度与核威慑原理

现有几乎所有关于核威慑的理论和政策研究都认为,核武器数量是否达到确保摧毁门槛对核威慑有效性有决定性影响。这种"确保摧毁"原则对学界的影响已达到范式级程度,以至于学者们在争论中国核武器数量够不够这个政策问题时,均自发地从该原则出发论证各自的主张。本文认为,"确保摧毁"范式忽视了承诺可信度在核威慑生效过程中所起的关键性作用,特别是未能充分意识到核武器数量变化对承诺可信度的反向影响以及这种反向影响对核威慑生效机制的影响,因而错将是否具备确保摧毁能力作为判断核威慑是否有效的唯一标准。通过剖析核武器数量、承诺可信度与核威慑有效性三者的作用关系,充分说明,"确保摧毁"既不是核威慑有效的充分条件,也不是其必要条件;未达到确保摧毁门槛时无需增加核武器同样有可能实现有效核威慑,而达到该门槛后为确保威慑有效反而应当(继续)增加核武器。超越"确保摧毁"范式有助于更准确、更完整地理解核威慑生效的全部机制。     

导弹防御与美国延伸威慑政策

对盟友提供的延伸威慑安全保证,是美国维持与盟友关系的重要基础。冷战时期,美国的延伸威慑主要通过核保护伞方式运作。为了应对冷战后新的安全环境,以满足新旧盟友的安全需求,美国开始通过导弹防御合作来提供对盟友的安全承诺与安全保证。这使得美国的延伸威慑从以核保护伞为核心,转变为核保护伞与导弹防御并重的模式。与盟友发展导弹防御合作关系,对美国的延伸威慑体系造成了一定程度的影响。其正面效益是,导弹防御合作使更多盟友能参与集体防务并贡献更多力量,还可增强盟友与伙伴的凝聚力和向心力,巩固美国的军事领导地位。但是,导弹防御系统仍然不具备绝对的可靠性和有效性,而且美国必须在以导弹防御合作促进延伸威慑方面投入更多的成本。如今,美国已开始加大力度,团结盟友进行新一轮的全球战略竞争。在此背景下,导弹防御延伸威慑模式的可持续性也将面临考验。     

《禁止核武器条约》之困境及出路

2021年1月22日起生效的《禁止核武器条约》致力于在全球范围内禁止核武器的拥有、研发、储存、转移、试验、使用或是威胁使用等行为,从而将核武器完全非法化。尽管《禁止核武器条约》反映了人道主义的关怀和无核世界的愿景,但该条约无论是在理论层面还是在现实层面都面临着不小的困境。从理论上看,《禁止核武器条约》以确立禁核规范来推动国际社会所有成员国弃核的逻辑基础并不牢固,因为规范可能退化甚至被颠覆,未必能够对国家产生强有力的约束。在现实层面,《禁止核武器条约》则因为全盘否定核威慑的重要性而遭到拥有核武器国家及其盟国的联合抵制,并暴露出该条约忽视部分国家的安全关切、损害国家自卫权利以及忽略裁军核查机制等不足。鉴于国际社会围绕《禁止核武器条约》产生了诸多争议,未来,该条约还是应当落脚到分步骤、渐进式的核裁军路线上来,需要在提供安全保证、区分禁核情形、建立核查机构,以及加强与不扩散国际机制兼容等方面进行完善,以促进当前核不扩散国际机制的改革和推动陷入停滞的核裁军进程的持续进行。     

Evaluation and quantification of nuclear DNA from human telogen hairs

Nuclear DNA was extracted from human telogen hairs from 60 individuals. Six to nine hairs from each individual were individually extracted. The amount of DNA recovered from each individual varied greatly, and most samples yielded a quantity of 550 pg or less per hair. A selective extraction buffer was used to remove epithelial cell DNA and the amount of exogenous DNA was determined. DNA was also quantified by real time PCR using three different sized amplicons targeting an Alu sequence. The results were used to determine the state of degradation of the extracted DNA. Different quantities of sample (<100 pg, 100-500 pg, >500 pg) were amplified with the Miniplex kits to determine the minimum DNA template required for successful amplification. DNA recovered from hair showed degradation; however, partial profiles were obtained for those samples containing at least 60 pg using MiniSTRs.     

Zimbabwe's troubles

This paper is situated within the global growing interest in the security of the Persian Gulf. Following the call for a pre-emptive air strike by the United States and Israel against Iran to crush or damage extensively its nuclear facilities, the debate on whether or not such an attack is justified and feasible, and what alternative strategy will yield the best result, had become of great concern among scholars around the world. This paper positions itself as an antagonist to the pre-emptive air strike option. It argues that the consequences of a pre-emptive air strike and its failure margin considering the location of the targeted facilities and the political situation in Iran have been seriously underestimated. It recommends that instead of a pre-emptive air strike, the Iranian nuclear programme crisis can be solved in a peaceful and more logical way, through technical isolation.     

The dynamics of Chinese missile proliferation

The missile nonproliferation regime has been criticized for its ineffectiveness in constraining states such as China from contributing to the proliferation of ballistic missile systems and related technologies to states in other regions. This regime is predicated on the assumption that the creation of social norms and acceptable patterns of behaviour will ultimately require China and others to conform to a universal perpective on the sources of and remedies for missile proliferation. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate that China's willingness to supply sensitive missile technology is a function of a weapons‐export policy that is incompatible with current initiatives in missile nonproliferation. Such a policy is the product of certain foreign policy considerations and domestic factors that serve as motivational elements within the internal political system.     

建构主义视角下"9·11"后美国对伊朗核政策的研究

"9·11"以来美伊在核问题上的矛盾表现为两国文化建构基础的不同,这种不同是由于双方所持有的现实主义集体安全观的内在矛盾所导致的.美国和伊朗在核问题上的冲突实质上是两种文化体系的冲突,即国际核不扩散机制为主导的康德文化体系与美伊敌对关系为特征的霍布斯文化体系的冲突.建构主义在解释外交政策上忽略了国家身份建构中的内部因素,这也是伊朗难以纳入所谓的核不扩散"国际规范"的原因.     

Characterization and Differentiation of Geometric Isomers of 3‐methylfentanyl Analogs by Gas Chromatography/Mass Spectrometry,Liquid Chromatography/Mass Spectrometry,and Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy

The cis and trans isomers of 3‐methylfentanyl and its three analogs were chemically synthesized, and these compounds were characterized and differentiated by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS), liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry (LC/MS), and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. The cis and trans isomers of the 3‐methylfentanyl analogs were completely separated by GC/MS. Although the high temperature of the GC injection port caused thermal degradation of β‐hydroxy‐3‐methylfentanyl, the degradation was completely suppressed by trimethylsilyl derivatization. The isomers were also well separated by LC/MS on an octadecylsilyl column with 10 mM ammonium acetate and methanol as the mobile phase. The proton NMR signals were split when the hydrochloride salts of the 3‐methylfentanyl analogs were dissolved in deuterated chloroform because stereoisomers were formed by the coordination of the hydrochloride proton to the nitrogen of the piperidine ring of the 3‐methylfentanyl analogs.     

核安全全球治理:历史、现实与挑战

核安全风险超越国界,可能跨越地区,甚至影响全球,因而核安全的治理必然是全球治理。各国对核安全风险的评估、核安全意识的养成是一个演进的过程,与此同步的是核安全全球治理。核安全全球治理经历了冷战、冷战结束和九一一事件以来的三个发展阶段,治理的主要内容随着国际安全形势的变化而调整。冷战期间的核安全全球治理主要体现为建立国际原子能机构以管理核能的和平利用,防范无核国家以发展民用核能为由发展核武器,签署和履行与核安全密切相关的国际公约、培育核安全的意识;冷战结束初期,国际原子能机构强化了保障监督能力,多边出口管制机制加强了对涉核物项出口的管控,国家间展开了实质性的核安全合作;九一一恐怖袭击之后,核安全全球治理呈现加速度的趋势,国际社会日益形成核安全共识,全球性制度建设加速,多边合作加强。经过多年努力,核安全全球治理的制度建设取得了显著成就,双边和多边国际合作得到实质性推动,但核安全全球治理仍然面临如何有效减少核材料存量、如何推动相关国家切实履行国家责任等挑战。     

The Effects of Different Maceration Techniques on Nuclear DNA Amplification Using Human Bone

Abstract: Forensic anthropologists routinely macerate human bone for the purposes of identity and trauma analysis, but the heat and chemical treatments used can destroy genetic evidence. As a follow‐up to a previous study on nuclear DNA recovery that used pig ribs, this study utilizes human skeletal remains treated with various bone maceration techniques for nuclear DNA amplification using the standard Combined DNA Index System (CODIS) markers. DNA was extracted from 18 samples of human lower leg bones subjected to nine chemical and heat maceration techniques. Genotyping was carried out using the AmpF?STR^® COfiler^® and AmpF?STR^® Profiler Plus^® ID kits. Results showed that heat treatments via microwave or Biz/Na₂CO₃ in sub‐boiling water efficiently macerate bone and produce amplifiable nuclear DNA for genetic analysis. Long‐term use of chemicals such as hydrogen peroxide is discouraged as it results in poor bone quality and has deleterious effects on DNA amplification.