大数据时代下的主动型侦查模式研究

侦查模式是侦查的最一般路由,侦查人员借助其对案件侦查形成基本的工作思路.当前犯罪出现了动态化、智能化、组织化的异化现象,处于基础性地位的反应型侦查模式在应对犯罪异化时遇到了困难.本文研究反应型侦查向主动型侦查转型的相关问题,借助了大数据对于行为、事件的预测功能扩展了原有的主动型侦查模式适用的外延范围并厘清了其在适用时所要解决的与反应型侦查所不同的法律问题.     

Access to Reliable Public Records as Evidence for Freedom of Information in Commonwealth Africa

Abstract

International attention to the benefits of openness for empowering citizens, strengthening economic performance and ending poverty has emphasised the importance of achieving accountability and transparency through freedom of information and open data. The ability to achieve openness depends upon the quality, completeness and accessibility of government records and data. However, chronic problems in managing this information in many Commonwealth countries, particularly in the digital environment, undermine the ability to achieve these goals. There is a critical need to develop and share solutions for managing this essential resource as a basis for digital governance across the Commonwealth, especially in relation to the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals.     

External Interventions in Post-Cold War Africa, 1989–2010

The study of external interventions in conflict management is critical and has implications for international relations and conflict theory. Quantitative studies of the relationship between external interventions and civil war have been prone to some conceptual limitations (understudied lower-intensity periods) and data limitations (unavailability of event battle death data). This article presents a new external interventions data set covering the period between 1989 and 2010 for Africa, building on the Regan et al. (2009) data set, which covers the period between 1945 and 1999. Novel features of this new data set are: the recoding of the overlap period; a broader range of categories of intervention, including UN and non-UN missions; and wider temporal scope, by extending the period of analysis to 2010, by lowering the civil war threshold to 25 battle deaths, and by starting the conflict period from the date of the first battle death in each civil war (based on UCDP GED version-1.5-2011). The advantages of the data set are illustrated with an analysis of the different effects interventions have on high- and low-intensity conflict periods.     

No News Is Good News: Mark and Recapture for Event Data When Reporting Probabilities Are Less Than One

We discuss a common, but often ignored, problem in event data: underreporting bias. When collecting data, it is often not the case that source materials capture all events of interest, leading to an undercount of the true number of events. To address this issue, we propose a common method first used to estimate the size of animal populations when a complete census is not feasible: mark and recapture. By taking multiple sources into consideration, one can estimate the rate of missing data across sources and come up with an estimate of the true number of events. To demonstrate the utility of the approach, we compare Associated Press and Agence France Press reports on conflict events, as contained in the Social Conflict in Africa Database. We show that these sources capture approximately 76% of all events in Africa but that the nondetection rate declines dramatically when considering more significant events. We also show through regression analysis that deadly events, events of a larger magnitude, and events with government repression, among others, are significant predictors of overlapping reporting. Ultimately, the approach can be used to correct for undercounting in event data and to assess the quality of sources used.     

大数据时代高校网络舆情应对策略的重新定位

大数据时代,网络舆情应对能力成为衡量高校管理水平的重要评价指标,但是高校网络舆情应对策略的研究对于事前应对分析仍然存在不足。高校网络舆情应对策略的重新定位,不仅需要转变思想观念如重视批评与自我批评、正确看待应急预案、正确看待网络舆情、相信并且重视科学;而且需要加强能力建设如重视顶层设计、具备大局观念、利用大数据挖掘技术、加强沟通与合作、挖掘本质根源。     

计算机系统遭到犯罪入侵后的电子证据取证

电子证据没有传统证据所拥有的永恒性,电子犯罪的调查和起诉,调查人员必须根据在某种交易已经完成后的记录来立案。一旦探测到受到入侵,你有两种选择方案来对付—将系统和网络断开,开始取证,或者仍旧让系统联网,尝试监控入侵者。利用正确的工具,具备所有器件如何工作的知识,就是收集所需证据需要的一切。     

网络时代我国隐私权立法的思考

本文结合欧美一些国家相关立法的对比研究,立足我国隐私权立法的现状,从制定个人数据保护法方面对我国隐私权立法提出一些初步设想。同时,还就电脑网络环境中个人数据的技术保护与法律保护的协调问题进行了探讨和研究。     

Missing Data Problems in Criminological Research: Two Case Studies

This paper considers the problem of missing data in two circumstances commonly confronted by criminologists. In the first circumstance, there is missing data due to subject attrition—some cases drop out of a study. In this context, analysts are frequently interested in examining the association between an independent variable measured at time t(x _t ) and an outcome variable that is measured at time t + 1(y _t + 1); the problem is that the outcome variable is only observed for those cases which do not drop out of the study. In the second circumstance there is missing data on an independent variable of interest for typical reasons (i.e., the respondent did not wish to answer a question or could not be located). In this case, researchers are interested in estimating the association between the independent variable with missing data and an outcome variable that is fully observed. Criminologists often handle these two missing data problems by conducting analyses on the subsample of observations with complete data. In this paper, we explore this problem with two case studies and we then illustrate the use of methods that directly address the uncertainty produced by missing data.     

论国际刑法中的贿赂外国官员罪

贿赂外国官员罪是一种具有广泛危害性的国际腐败犯罪,自20世纪70年代以来,联合国及其他国际组织通过了一系列法律文件对其作出规定,并不断加强国际合作,以预防和惩治该种犯罪。贿赂外国官员罪的构成具有跨国或涉外因素,行贿方是一国的国民、法人或者其代理人,受贿方是另一国家的官员,且本罪的构成只涉及行贿方的行贿行为,而不包括受贿方的受贿行为。本罪的犯罪目的是为使外国官员不履行其法定职责,以便行贿人自己或者其他人在国际商业交易中谋取不正当利益。