从亚欧会议看区域合作与中欧关系

作为全球化浪潮与区域化进程合力之下产生的一项区域间合作机制，亚欧会议在推动亚欧国家间交流与合作方面具有重要价值。本文从国际制度的理论与实践出发，考察亚欧会议的制度化特征，并分析这些特征对于区域合作和中欧关系的意义。     

Introduction: The democratic consolidation of Lithuania's State Institutions

What has enabled the Finnic and Baltic slivers east of the Baltic Sea to survive in the midst of a Germanic-Slavic Northern Europe for the last 1000 years? Such an outcome was not foreordained – it is the result of a succession of lucky circumstances, on top of the strength of native cultures. Favorable factors include geopolitical location, worldwide main currents such as Protestantism and Romanticism, competition among would-be assimilators, and the unintentional positive impact of personalities extraneous to the Baltic area, such as Bishop Albert, Martin Luther and Peter the First. The latter occupy only a part of this overview, but as partly counter-intuitive examples they highlight the contradictory vagaries of the process of nation-building east of the Baltic Sea. While the focus is on Estonia and Latvia, some observations apply to Lithuania and Finland as well. Sustainability during the last 1000 years has implications for future national survival, but with marked reservations in a demographically imploding Europe. Nations without children have no future.     

The sent-down youth of China: The role of family origin in the risk of departure to and return from the countryside

Between 1967 and 1978, over 17million urban youths in China systematically migrated to the rural countryside in a massive relocation movement known as the Sent-Down Movement. The youths who relocated—some by choice, though many forcibly—were part of a grand scheme envisioned by the then ruling Communist Party leader, Mao Zedong, who sought to reeducate urban youth by having them live and labor amongst their rural compatriots. Known as the “sent down youth”, these youths' experiences and struggles of moving to and returning from the countryside offer considerable insight into the ideological importance of family origins. Most notably, the revolutionary movement which swept over China at the height of the sent-down movement in the late 1960s reversed the hierarchical order of society; individuals with higher family origins were now criminalized making them prime targets for relocation to the countryside. In this quantitative analysis, I examine the relationship between family origins and the risk of departure to and return from the countryside for urban youth, using a unique longitudinal retrospective dataset, Life Histories and Social Change in Contemporary China. I analyze how this relationship plays out not only during the height of the movement, but throughout a more expansive time frame under which youths were reportedly sent-down (1957 to 1980). Through discrete-time survival analysis, I estimate that urban youths from higher family origins (rich peasant and landowner classes) experienced a greater risk for being sent-down versus their counterparts from lower family origins. Most interestingly, youths of higher family origins also experienced a lower risk for returning from the countryside; one interpretation of this finding is that even after spending time in the countryside in the pursuit of absolving themselves of their higher family origins, the stigma attached to their higher family origins persisted.     

'Perspiration' vs 'Inspiration' in Asian Industrialisation: Indonesia Before the Crisis

This article examines trends in and determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in 28 manufacturing industries in Indonesia over the period 1975-93. The reforms of the mid-1980s appeared to have resulted in a significant acceleration of TFP growth. Among the inter-industry determinants of TFP growth, trade policy and orientation, domestic competitive pressures and ownership factors are singled out for scrutiny. The trade regime and one measure of domestic competition emerge as consistently important explanatory factors.     

Les agents religieux islamiques en Afrique tropicale: réflexions autour d'un thème

There are political and environmental challenges in the Nile Basin. In the past, Egypt's military dominance, civil wars in Sudan and Ethiopia, and negligible use of water by upstream states muted political tensions. But demands for a fairer share of the Nile River have resurfaced, and many countries have openly defied the imposed regime, meaning the 1929 agreement between Egypt and Britain and the 1959 bilateral agreements between Egypt and Sudan. The literature suggests this can lead to both conflict and co-operation. The dominant power-based and interest-based regime theories of international relations differ in their formulation of actors or actors' preferences over outcomes. This article argues that, while the former is the most powerful tool to explain what has happened in the past, the latter theory has a much more nuanced and explanatory power in terms of what will happen in the future in the Nile Basin.     

Explaining institutional change in international patent politics

This article seeks to explain institutional change in international patent politics since the conclusion of the 1995 Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (trips). I argue that the distribution of interests in this issue area adheres to a sharp North–South distinction, and that the pursuit of largely incompatible and conflicting patent agendas by industrialised and developing countries, respectively, has led to the gradual emergence of an international patent regime complex. Focusing on trips-plus measures under various Free Trade Agreements, patent enforcement clubs and a range of UN organisations which have recently gained relevance for international patent politics, I show how the distribution of interests in this area has led to the development of two parallel and partially inconsistent international governance structures. I conclude that the distribution of interests explains the propensity of regime complexes towards stability and change, with institutional change being particularly pronounced when overlapping interests among revisionist actors enhance the prospects of collective action.     

Re-thinking Myanmar's political regime: military rule in Myanmar and implications for current reforms

The Myanmar military has long dominated national politics as well as the state apparatus since first coming into power in 1958. Despite a series of challenges to its rule, the military has been able to constantly re-invent itself while re-asserting its dominance over society. Cycles of popular protests and dissatisfaction with military rule have not led to regime change nor weakened the military as a unified institution. The latest incarnation of the nominally civilian government has introduced a series of liberalising reforms that have dramatically opened more socio-political space for opposition and non-state actors to participate in national politics. Despite the somewhat optimistic outlook of a more liberalised Myanmar in the future, the institutional design and historical legacy of the military's role in state-building have ensured that it has enough ‘reserve domains’ to maintain its prominent role within any foreseeable future governments in Myanmar. By tracing the historical development of the Myanmar military regime, this paper argues that current reforms were introduced as a strategy for the military to ensure its continued survival as the primary political actor in Myanmar.     

Critical infrastructure protection and Russia's hybrid regime

The Russian policy on critical infrastructure protection was outlined in the early 2000s and has been consolidated in recent years as a part of the national security strategy. This policy is evolving against a background composed of an uneasy combination of factors: the degeneration of infrastructures critical for the country's economic and social development, and the de-legitimization of political institutions responsible for protecting ‘population’ and ‘territory’. The recent major catastrophes in Russia, the notorious forest fires in 2010 in particular, have become examples of political events that offer a point of reference for the current regime's failure to uphold its promises of ‘order and stability’.     

Support for Strongman Rule in Ethnically Divided Societies: Evidence from Estonia and Latvia

Using data from Estonia and Latvia from 2004, this study maps and analyzes support for authoritarianism in ethnically divided societies. It develops and tests three explanatory models, focusing on socialization and the political and economic aspects of regime performance. Because the correlates of authoritarian support may vary by ethnic group, separate models are run for the ethnic majority and the minority. The results lend some support to all three theoretical approaches, although none of these can be considered to be a powerful explanation of support for authoritarianism. The determinants of support for strongman rule vary with ethnicity, suggesting that future studies on political support in multiethnic societies should systematically control for the effects of ethnicity.     

Popular perceptions of political regimes in East and Southeast Asia

Political regimes in East and Southeast Asia run the full spectrum from liberal democracy through various hybrid democratic-authoritarian types and on to full-blown authoritarianism and totalitarianism. While political scientists have invested much effort and ingenuity in creating typologies of regimes to better understand the empirical diversity of political structures and processes, much less attention has been paid to what the citizens think. How do people in East and Southeast Asian countries perceive their own institutions and performance of governance? This article uses public opinion data derived from the AsiaBarometer 2006 and 2007 Surveys of 12 East and Southeast Asian countries to map what citizens actually think about their structures, processes, and outcomes of governance and compare these with the regime classifications of political scientists. The results revealed universal commitment to elections but disillusionment with political practice, positive estimations of the institutions of governance in Southeast Asia but much less enthusiasm in East Asia, and a preference for moderate opinions. There is no clear overall correlation between regime type and popular perception.