Long-term monarchical survival in the Middle East: a configurational comparison, 1945–2012

The survival of eight monarchies during the “Arab Uprisings” has put centre stage the fundamental question about the durability of this subtype of authoritarian regime. Seen from a broader historical perspective, however, the idea that monarchies have an inherent advantage in retaining power is less evident: a number of authoritarian monarchies broke down and subsequently became republics (Egypt 1952, Iraq 1958, North Yemen 1962, Libya 1969, Iran 1979), while others survived (Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). To account for these divergent long-term pathways we systematically compare the 13 current and former Middle East monarchies. Using a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), we concentrate on five central explanatory factors derived from previous research – namely, external support, rent revenues, family participation, the monarch's claim to legitimate rule, and hard repression. Our findings highlight the existence of three broad pathways to monarchical survival – linchpin monarchies, like Jordan and Morocco, versus the dynastic Gulf monarchies – and also reveal a possible hybrid third pathway, one which shares linchpin characteristics, but relates to cases on the Arabian Peninsula (Oman and the historical Imamate in North Yemen).     

Party systems in Latin America: institutionalization,decay, and collapse,edited by Scott Mainwaring

Although coming of age under a totalitarian regime drastically reduces the chances of acquiring democratic values or supporting democracy, factors other than the formal nature of the political regime shape political values as well. The informal structure of the political regime, which consists of rules developed in political practice and economic and human development, may shape individual values and attitudes and produce different attitudes towards democracy in different totalitarian regimes. This article focuses on the effect of early socialization on the support for democracy among citizens who have been ruled under two different non-democratic regimes. We compare the dynamics in Spain and Romania during the post-totalitarian period with the aim of identifying how coming of age operated in these two different totalitarian regimes and how each type of non-democratic regime affected the legitimacy of the new democratic rule. Using survey data from various sources (Standard Eurobarometer, Central and Eastern Eurobarometer and Candidate Countries Eurobarometer) that allow both longitudinal and cross-sectional comparisons, we decompose the social change in support for democracy over the post-totalitarian period in both countries using cross-classified fixed effects models. The analyses demonstrate the different effects of socialization on support for democracy in these two different totalitarian contexts.     

Are democratic sanctions really counterproductive?

Previous research has shown that sanctions have a negative impact on the level of democracy in targeted authoritarian countries. This runs counter to substantive comparative literature on democratization which finds that economic stress is connected with regime collapse and democratic liberalization. To solve this puzzle, we focus on the effects of “democratic sanctions” (those that explicitly aim to promote democracy) which have become the most common type of sanction issued against authoritarian states. We introduce a new data set of imposed sanctions in the period 1990–2010 that clearly separates sanctions according to the explicit goal of the sender. Our cross-sectional time-series analysis demonstrates that although sanctions as a whole do not generally increase the level of democracy, there is in fact a significant correlation between democratic sanctions and increased levels of democracy in targeted authoritarian countries. A fundamental mechanism leading to this outcome is the increased instability of authoritarian rule as democratic sanctions are significantly associated with a higher probability of regime and leadership change.     

Autocracies,democracies, and the violation of civil liberties

Research on autocracies and their consequences has been a growth industry in the latest decade. Nonetheless, the relationship between the type of autocracy and the violation of civil liberties has largely been ignored. In this article, we employ a new dataset, which includes cross-temporal data on freedom of speech, freedom of assembly/association, freedom of religion, and freedom of movement, to shed light on this issue. Analysing 182 countries in the period 1979–2008, we show that democracies repress civil liberties less than autocracies do, whereas we find little evidence to the effect that different kinds of autocracies violate civil liberties to different degrees. However, we also show that the differences between democracies and autocracies have declined starkly since the Cold War. Finally, our results demonstrate that the difference in the extent to which democracies and autocracies repress civil liberties is larger for the freedom of speech and freedom of assembly/association than for the freedom of religion and freedom of movement. We take the general difference between the two categories of liberties as evidence that autocracies repress political liberties more than private liberties because the former presents levers for oppositional activity. We argue that the cross-temporal differences are a consequence of the spread of more minimalist democracies since the end of the Cold War.     

Remittances and varieties of democratization in developing countries

ABSTRACT

How do remittances affect democratization in developing countries? In this paper we reconcile divergent findings in the literature by examining the effect of remittances on procedural and liberal democracy in developing countries at various stages of their democratic development. Remittances are primarily sent to middle-class individuals and bypass government control. Yet, governments in countries receiving remittances want to tax this remittance income. Government officials therefore need to incentivize participation of the middle class in the formal economy by reducing the threat of expropriation. Improving procedural democracy, which assures citizens of improved property and rule of law protections, is one way to accomplish this. We argue that this relationship should only be present in mixed regime types, with the democratizing effect of remittances waning as the country’s level of democracy or autocracy strengthens. Further, we expect elements of liberal democracy, such as civil rights and equality under the law, to remain unchanged in all remittance-receiving countries. The middle class and governing elite are less incentivized to improve liberal democracy to limit the power and mobilization capacity of the poor and prevent increased redistribution. We test our theory on a dataset of developing countries from 1975 through 2011.     

The enhancement effect of social and employment integration on the delay of recidivism of released offenders trained with the R & R programme

Abstract

The aim of this study is to assess the extent to which social and employment integration enhances the efficacy of social–cognitive training carried out in prison through a Spanish adaptation of the Reasoning & Rehabilitation (R & R) programme. A quasi-experimental design was used to compare a group of inmates who received only social–cognitive training with a group of inmates who also received social and employment integration and with a comparison group who received neither of these interventions. The total sample was composed of 117 repeat offenders, serving sentence for property offences, drug dealing and offences against the person. The results obtained through a Kaplan–Meier survival analysis after a 6-year follow-up indicate that both intervention groups are significantly different from the comparison group. The group that received social and employment integration had the highest level of delayed recidivism, but the difference with the group that only received social–cognitive training was not statistically significant. The results are discussed in relation to the Good Lives Model and to the Risk–Needs–Responsivity Model of offender rehabilitation.     

The Strategic Timing behind Position-taking in the US Congress: A Study of the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act

Roll call voting by members of the US Congress has been frequently studied. In contrast, the various decisions leading up to roll call voting are relatively unexplored. This article analyses one of those decisions: when senators announce their final passage vote intention. The authors use the same set of variables to analyse both the timing of the announcement and the final passage vote. They find that different independent variables predict these two different decisions, though the constituency and the senator's institutional setting matter in both. Furthermore, this study corroborates an assumption in the rational choice literature that those members with the most information are the first movers.     

社会法起源新论——生存的社会维护和社会立法进程视角

人类生存的维护形式,经历了原始社会集体维护,到特殊关系（家族、身份、家庭）内部维护和个体维护,最终在工业化和城市化面前完全崩溃。在完全的私有制和极端的贪欲下,生存所依赖的相关资源配置发生严重的不平衡,权力、财富、报酬分配过多地向社会强者聚集,社会弱者生存资源单一且微薄,生存与发展问题十分严重。当国家和社会把维护人类生存与发展的义务背负起来,形成生存的社会维护,并使再次分配成为生存的基本资源一部分时,社会立法回应了这一新状况,西方国家的社会法就是在此中产生并得以发展。     

Youth welfare policy in Turkey in comparative perspective: a case of ‘Denied Youth Citizenship’

This article explores the main characteristics of social and economic policies for young people in Turkey. Inspired by Tom Chevalier’s typology of youth welfare citizenship designed for Western European countries, the article situates Turkey’s youth welfare citizenship model within a comparative perspective and contributes to the extension of Chevalier’s typology to a non-Western European country context. Relying upon the systematic analysis of findings of a nationwide survey on young people that was conducted in 2013, comparative youth statistics, official youth statistics, public expenditures data and existing policy frameworks, the article suggests that Turkey fits well with the denied youth citizenship type in Chevalier’s typology. Two conclusions are drawn with respect to Turkey’s youth welfare citizenship model. First, with respect to the social citizenship dimension, the article finds that social and youth policy structure in Turkey has a familialization effect on young people’s access to income. In terms of economic citizenship, the article suggests that Turkey implements a selective strategy that results in unequal distribution of labour market skills among young people.     

“易班”网络班级的重塑研究与实践——网络化生存背景下

当今大学生已经成为"网上的一代",网络化生存已经成为当代大学生重要的生活方式。"易班"网络班级在增强班级凝聚力,聚合班级学习氛围,调节师生关系等方面都发挥了重要作用。"易班"网络班级的健康发展,需要提升关注度,发挥学生"易班"建设的主体功能,需要加强整合度,满足学生对"易班"的合理需求,需要拓展参与度,提升专任教师的"易班"介入作用。