国际金融危机对日本经济的主要影响因素分析——基于MIMIC模型的硏究

2008年由美国次贷危机引发的"金融海啸"席卷全球,日本经济也受到了强烈的冲击。日本MIMIC模型的建立发现了影响日本"危机强度"的国内信贷/GDP和政府债务/GDP两个国内主要影响因素,对各种传染渠道进行检验后发现了这次引起日本金融危机的主要是贸易传染渠道,对上述国内外主要影响因素进行分析,日本政府为刺激经济的一系列扩张性政策,在金融市场中并没有转化为有效的投资和需求反而大大增加了政府债务。     

“梅普”时期的俄罗斯经济:形势、政策、成就及问题

2012年3月4日,俄罗斯举行总统大选,普京再次当选俄罗斯总统,"梅普组合"这个在俄罗斯特殊历史条件下形成的权力配置形式完成其历史使命。2012年,俄罗斯经济在经历了国际金融危机之后,国民经济又回到2008年的水平。此时,我们对"梅普组合"时期俄罗斯经济发展状况、经济发展政策及战略进行系统地梳理和回顾,在此基础上对俄罗斯经济的发展水平及发展脉络做出客观的判断,进而对该时期经济发展中存在的问题进行深入剖析,并对俄罗斯经济未来发展方向做出预测。     

The contradictions of neo-extractivism and social policy: the role of raw material exports in the Brazilian political crisis

This article explores how contradictory development tendencies within Brazil’s primary sector have contributed to the country’s enduring political crisis. I show that President Rousseff, when dealing with declining royalty payments from natural resource exports and a decrease in tax revenue from imports, financed social policies in ways that her opponents branded as unconstitutional to remove her from power. After documenting the central players within the political crisis, namely those who have been under investigation in Operação Lava Jato (Operation Car Wash), I illustrate how the ongoing corruption scandals plaguing Brazil have their roots in the country’s raw material export industries.     

Informal borrowing sources and uses: insights from the North West Region,Cameroon

Abstract

This article seeks to analyse the informal borrowing sources of the poor as well as the purposes for borrowing. The obsession on characterising the poor as financially excluded fails to grasp their active financial lives. This article emphasises how relations of credit/debt are rooted in complex social and cultural forces. It is precisely because of the social embeddedness of credit that family finance, though interest-free, is not a first resort. Similarly, credit in kind from shopkeepers, though critical to consumption smoothing, is detested by some people. Also, it is argued that the involvement of the traditional leader in repayment enforcement in informal financial groups challenges the economistic narrative that attempts to separate credit from cultural norms.     

African Union and Intra-State Conflict Resolution: A Return to the Libyan Crisis (2011)

This paper looked at the performance of the African Union (AU), in the resolution of intrastate conflicts in Africa. The study necessitated a revisit to the Libyan crisis. It is acknowledged in the study that conflicts pervade human relations. In the case of Africa, the study further shows that Africa has never experienced a lasting peace. The theoretical framework of games theory has been adopted in the study, to describe the character of African conflicts and to proffer solutions for the minimization of the level and number of such intrastate conflicts. The Libyan conflict typified the character of intrastate conflicts in Africa and was used for illustration in the study. The study concluded that the AU has made significant contributions toward the resolution of intrastate conflicts in Africa but there are still shortcomings of the AU and impediments to the efforts of the African Union, toward the resolution of such crises.     

Societal openness during the urban crisis. Partner selection in the 19th-century Belgian textile cities Ghent and Verviers

This paper examines the partner selection of the lower classes during an urban crisis period in early industrial Belgian cities. It was found that in this period characterized by an economic transition, overpopulation, migration and a low standard of living, social heterogamy was high, whereas social homogamy increased, or was ‘restored’, in the subsequent period. The urban crisis effect on partner selection contradicts the claims of modernization theory that there was a gradual increase in societal openness and that societal openness was typically modern, but it fits the idea of the informalization of marriage, a process marked by an increase in unmarried cohabitation and illegitimacy.     

A new dynamism in Sino-Japanese security relations: Japan's strategic use of foreign aid

Abstract

In November 2004 a Chinese nuclear submarine cruised into Japan's territorial waters near the Okinawa Islands. In response, the Japanese government dispatched several Japanese naval ships and planes to chase the Chinese submarine until it navigated into international waters. This event, which potentially could have become the first exchange of fire between Japan and China since the Second World War, illuminated increasingly problematic security relations between the two neighbouring countries in the twenty-first century. In fact, deterioration of Sino-Japanese security relations is not a recent phenomenon but has already been evident since the mid-1990s, when Japan imposed a series of economic sanctions on China. Between 1995 and 2000 Japan had suspended its foreign aid to China in protest against: China's nuclear weapons tests; China's large scale war game including the launch of missiles across the Taiwan Strait; and Chinese naval activities in disputed areas in the East China Sea. This article looks at Sino-Japanese security relations since the mid-1990s through three case studies of the aid sanctions imposed by Japan on China. It clarifies the domestic political and bureaucratic interests that motivated aid sanctions and determined the decision-making process leading to these sanctions. The article argues, that with certain politico-security interests, Japanese governments actively used foreign aid as a strategic instrument to counter provocative military actions by China in the East Asian region since the mid-1990s. Despite the limited influence that Japanese aid sanctions have actually had on Chinese military behaviour, Japan's strategic use of foreign aid has undeniably created a new dynamism in security relations between the two neighbouring great powers in Asia.     

Neighborhood Housing Resilience: Examining Changes in Foreclosed Homes During the U.S. Housing Recovery

ABSTRACT

The surge in foreclosures in the United States that began in 2007 reached a peak in mid-2011, and since then, the rate of foreclosures has been decreasing, providing evidence of the housing market recovery. This study examines factors that affected changes in ZIP code-level foreclosure rates in more than 300 U.S. metropolitan areas during the national housing recovery. Using multivariate analyses of the long- and short-term effects of foreclosures simultaneously, this finding shows that certain characteristics of the mortgage and housing markets led to more rapid neighborhood recovery. Results also indicate, however, that most urban-form variables led to neighborhood resilience over the long term, that high shares of mixed land use were strongly associated with fewer foreclosures, and that high shares of auto dependency were associated with high foreclosure rates. Finally, findings suggest that low- and moderate-income neighborhoods, particularly in cities, were more vulnerable and less resilient to economic shock, and the accumulated effects of foreclosures worsened over the long term. However, low- and moderate-income neighborhoods surrounded by suburban affluent neighborhoods recovered more rapidly than those in cities did. Understanding such resilience to economic crises will provide policymakers with insights that they can leverage to establish housing policies for sustainable neighborhoods.     

Investing in Crisis: The Methods,Strategies, and Expectations of Investors in Single-Family Foreclosed Homes in Distressed Neighborhoods

In the wake of the U.S. foreclosure crisis, the magnitude of homes flowing into investor ownership since 2007 has been unprecedented. Based on interviews with investors and other key informants active on the south and southwest sides of Atlanta, we describe the key aspects of the business models of such investors, including their methods of identifying properties, determining acquisition prices and renovation costs, and managing properties for rent. We also examine their expectations for financial return, including the sensitivity of returns to market and property uncertainties. We conclude with key findings and some recommendations for policymakers.     

JISB Interview: Kosova in Dependence: From Stability of Crisis to the Crisis of Stability

Abstract

Albin Kurti is the leader of Lëvizja VETËVENDOSJE! (Movement for Self-determination!) in Kosova. The movement was standing candidates for the first time in the December 2010 Kosova elections and on 28 October 2010 launched its political programme entitled ‘Development and Statebuilding: Together (it) is Possible’. David Chandler interviewed Albin Kurti at the Lëvizja VETËVENDOSJE! offices in Pristina on 2 September 2010 and it was agreed that JISB would publish Kurti's essay (updated after the elections) articulating how the movement understands the barriers to independence in Kosova today and outlining the political development of its strategy of resistance.