改革是社会主义中国的强国之路——邓小平改革理论探析

改革是邓小平理论最重要的内容,是决定当代中国命运的历史性决策,是新时期我国最鲜明的特征。本文系统探讨分析了邓小平关于我国社会主义改革的必然性、迫切性,改革的对象、目标和性质,以及改革同发展与稳定的关系。这对于深入学习邓小平理论,深化我国改革具有重要的现实意义。     

Assessing Stability and Change in Criminal Offending: A Comparison of Random Effects, Semiparametric, and Fixed Effects Modeling Strategies

An important theoretical problem for criminologists is an explanation forthe robust positive correlation between prior and future criminaloffending. Nagin and Paternoster (1991) have suggested that the correlationcould be due to time-stable population differences in the underlyingproneness to commit crimes (population heterogeneity) and/or thecriminogenic effect that crime has on social bonds, conventionalattachments, and the like (state dependence). Because of data andmeasurement limitations, the disentangling of population heterogeneityand state dependence requires that researchers control for unmeasuredpersistent heterogeneity. Frequently, random effects probit models havebeen employed, which, while user-friendly, make a strong parametricassumption that the unobserved heterogeneity in the population follows anormal distribution. Although semiparametric alternatives to the randomeffects probit model have recently appeared in the literature to avoid thisproblem, in this paper we return to reconsider the fully parametric model. Viasimulation evidence, we first show that the random effects probit modelproduces biased estimates as the departure of heterogeneity from normalitybecomes more substantial. Using the 1958 Philadelphia cohort data, we thencompare the results from a random effects probit model with a semiparametricprobit model and a fixed effects logit model that makes no assumptions aboutthe distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We found that with this dataset all three models converged on the same substantive result—evenafter controlling for unobserved persistent heterogeneity, with models thattreat the unobserved heterogeneity very differently, prior conduct had apronounced effect on subsequent offending. These results are inconsistentwith a model that attributes all of the positive correlation between priorand future offending to differences in criminal propensity. Sinceresearchers will often be completely blind with respect to the tenabilityof the normality assumption, we conclude that different estimationstrategies should be brought to bear on the data.     

非政府组织发展与我国社会稳定的关系

改革开放以来，我国非政府组织如雨后春笋般蓬勃发展，在促进基层民主政治建设、社会治理、经济建设等方面发挥了积极作用，取得了显著成绩，日益引起社会各界的关注。特别是在应对灾变、群体性事件等突发事件中所充当的“第三方”的重要角色，使得非政府组织在维护社会稳定过程中的重要性日益凸现。但其消极影响也逐步显现出来，在某种程度上成为我国政府社会治理工作面临的一项新挑战。     

树立以科学发展观为指导的科学稳定观

传统稳定观缺乏科学发展观内涵，忽视解决影响稳定的根源问题，重治标不重治本，这样的稳定工作永远是被动的。只有树立以科学发展观为指导的科学稳定观，注重从源头上发现和解决影响稳定的社会矛盾，才能确保稳定工作既适应新世纪的新情况新问题，又牢牢把握稳定工作的主动权。     

和谐社会视阈下的冲突与和谐

冲突是人类社会不可避免的政治现象，冲突与合作是政治生活的常态。迄今为止，还没有哪个社会完全没有冲突。因此，构建社会主义和谐社会也必定是在冲突中寻求和谐与秩序，实现从冲突到秩序转化的社会。而实现冲突的制度化调控则是构建和谐社会的必由之路。     

社会和谐稳定与利益协调机制

构建社会主义和谐社会、保持社会和谐稳定对完善利益协调机制提出了新要求,要求利益协调机制能够调节新形势下人民内部矛盾,保证发展成果由人民共享,切实维护群众合法权益,引导群众理性表达诉求。当前,完善利益协调机制面临一些突出问题。为了完善利益协调机制,保持社会和谐稳定,必须保持经济平稳较快发展,加大国民收入分配调整力度;树立＂公开、平等、有序＂的利益协调观念,引导群众依法有序表达合理诉求;查处领导干部职务犯罪及侵害群众利益的案件,广泛接受舆论监督;进一步关注和改善民生,解决好人民群众的迫切需求。     

浅谈当前社会稳定面临的形势及对策

社会稳定是社会各个阶层普遍关注的一个重大理论问题和现实问题,它是任何一个国家和政府都努力追求的社会状况和社会理想。当前,我国正处于综合国力快速增长期,维护社会稳定,为经济发展保驾护航,准确地把握社会稳定面临的形势,制定实施相关政策,有效化解社会矛盾既是党政执法机关的必修课,又是服务于社会经济、政治全面发展的职责所在。     

创新社会管理机制 促进治安秩序稳定

深入推进三项重点工作,充分发挥执法办案在化解矛盾纠纷中的基础作用。构建和谐社会就必须重视社会治安问题,根据新的形势创新社会管理机制,加强基层法制建设。社会治安体系的创新和建设是一项系统工程。     

政治稳定视野下的和谐利益机制建设

政治稳定意味着政治生活的有序性和连续性。利益与政治稳定密切相关。在当代中国，利益问题关系到社会主义政治稳定的实现以及和谐社会的顺利构建，是一个重大的现实问题。在构建和谐社会的过程中，必须把政治稳定与构建和谐的利益机制紧密结合起来，构建畅通的利益表达机制、完善的利益协调机制、公正的利益均衡机制。     

Brexit,the Belfast Agreement and Northern Ireland: Imperilling a Fragile Political Bargain

The major impact of the Belfast Agreement was to engineer a peaceful coexistence between nationalism and unionism that involved each bloc recognising it had sufficient power to thwart the political ambitions of the other side, but not enough to push through its own agenda. This paper argues that Brexit seriously damages this peaceful coexistence and could trigger what is termed an Ulster war of attrition in which Northern Ireland becomes entrapped in a political stalemate where each side strives to triumph without having sufficient power to do so. It also argues that to restore internal political stability in Northern Ireland, and to indemnify against the risk of disorderly relationships between the British and Irish governments in the future, the strategic importance of Strand 3 of the Belfast Agreement requires strengthening.