Evaluating the impact of repeated leadership targeting on militant group durability

ABSTRACT

The effects of repeated leadership targeting on militant organizations have been little discussed and quantitatively assessed. This research undertakes to assess the policy’s effectiveness by account for targeting policies’ repeated nature. Analysis of 207 militant organizations between 1970 and 2008 finds that repeated targeting can hasten a group’s demise, but quadratically. While initial targeting interventions actually increase a group’s resilience, a series of successive attacks significantly reduces their survivability. This effect is particularly significant for young organizations. The findings suggest that for targeting to be effective, patience and repeated interventions are required; it is erroneous to conclude its effectiveness based on a single intervention result.     

Using Named Entities for Computer‐Automated Verbal Deception Detection

There is an increasing demand for automated verbal deception detection systems. We propose named entity recognition (NER; i.e., the automatic identification and extraction of information from text) to model three established theoretical principles: (i) truth tellers provide accounts that are richer in detail, (ii) contain more contextual references (specific persons, locations, and times), and (iii) deceivers tend to withhold potentially checkable information. We test whether NER captures these theoretical concepts and can automatically identify truthful versus deceptive hotel reviews. We extracted the proportion of named entities with two NER tools (spaCy and Stanford's NER) and compared the discriminative ability to a lexicon word count approach (LIWC) and a measure of sentence specificity (speciteller). Named entities discriminated truthful from deceptive hotel reviews above chance level, and outperformed the lexicon approach and sentence specificity. This investigation suggests that named entities may be a useful addition to existing automated verbal deception detection approaches.     

财政转移支付结构调整困境及其人权再定位

为便于落实财政转移支付规范目标,我国将其分为一般性转移支付与专项转移支付,并分别予以功能定位。然而,受诸多因素影响,两类转移支付功能发挥产生混同与偏差,导致转移支付整体功能受限,转移支付结构调整陷入困境。对此,以结构视角分析,虽便于理解和说明,但需要注意到结构主义自身容易带有的对主体、环境及转移支付整体结构平衡的忽视这些局限,谨防将结构调整简化为增加一般性转移支付份量、减少专项转移支付份额到预设的比例。现有体制环境下,基于转移支付人权保障属性,有必要对转移支付结构进行人权维度再定位,为其整体功能圆满实现提供新的纠偏视角与规范途径。     

On Myth,Considered as a Method for Legal Thought

The textual form of law relates to language and not to narration but to myth. Law's text does not develop in the temporal sequence of past-present-future, but spreads by analogy of concentric circles. If ‘normal’ myth is a folklore of people then the law is a myth retold by lawyers. For the sake of separation of legal myth from mythology as a whole, law creates its own rituals. In post-modern societies the mythologization of law becomes even more important as the boundaries between legal and lay communities are challenged. Classical legal theories cannot deal with this change and Kafka's The Trial is as good a jurisprudence as any other legal theory. This revised version was published online in November 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

台湾农业产业化支持政策及其运作

台湾在土地资源十分匮乏的情况下,只用了短短二三十年的时间,便在落后的传统农业基础上,实现了农业产业化与现代化,并推动农业产业化不断升级。其非常重要的原因,就是台湾当局根据不同时期农业发展的需要,制定出一系列支持农业发展的政策,并采取相应的配套措施,使政府的宏观政策得以成功实施。主要措施是:土地改革政策;市场促进政策;农业科技投入政策;产业组织优化政策;结构升级政策。     

The “war on cops,” retaliatory violence,and the murder of George Floyd*

The police murder of George Floyd sparked nationwide protests in the summer of 2020 and revived claims that public outcry over such high-profile police killings perpetuated a violent “war on cops.” Using data collected by the Gun Violence Archive (GVA) on firearm assaults of U.S. police officers, we use Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) modeling to empirically assess if and how patterns of firearm assault on police officers in the United States were influenced by the police murder of George Floyd. Our analysis finds that the murder of George Floyd was associated with a 3-week spike in firearm assaults on police, after which the trend in firearms assaults dropped to levels only slightly above that which were predicted by pre-Floyd data. We discuss potential explanations for these findings and consider their relevance to the contemporary discussion of a “war on cops,” violence, and officer safety.     

群体性事件的根源分析及其化解——基于社会运行机制的分析

当前我国群体性事件频发,成为影响社会稳定和发展的突出问题。以社会运行机制为分析视角,比较传统社会和现代社会发展运行机制,我国现代社会单纯依靠经济发展作为社会控制力的唯一支撑,这种社会运行机制所导致的社会结构性压力严重和社会控制力低下是当前群体性事件多发的根本原因。因此,必须实现社会制度的公正,重建社会信仰体系,实现科学发展。     

A computational text analysis of the South African banking sector's representation of its core values: A corpus-driven approach

Abstract

This article uses corpus linguistics (CL) to computationally quantify and qualitatively explain how meaning is represented vis-à-vis core values in the text of the 2009 annual reports of the South African banking sector. Core values prescribe the behaviour, attitude and character of an organisation and may be indicative of an organisation's ideologies. This article draws on the work of Fox (2006a and b), who advances the new development of merging linguistics and corporate communication, and in so doing adopting a transdisciplinary perspective on language. Written text is an ideal method with which to capture an organisation's ideologies through corporate public discourse (CPD) such as annual reports, because the organisation can control the content and distribution. However, as corporate messages are generally written by the ‘entity’ and not by the individual, writers essentially accept the banks’ practicing power through consent. The results illustrate how the repeated use of content words may skilfully position the reader of the text positively towards the South African banking sector's core values represented in the text. Researching language in organisations not only facilitates strategic competence in comprehending communication processes, but can also be beneficial in terms of more credible CPD.     

He Did It First! A Path Model of Interactions in the Aggressive Behaviors of Elementary School Boys During Three Successive Recess Periods

Abstract

This exploratory study uses observations of the aggressive behavior of elementary school boys during three successive recess periods to test the hypothesis that aggressive behavior can spread between recess periods through peer contagion. If this hypothesis is correct, aggressive behaviors during the second recess period should mediate any correlation between aggressive behaviors during the first and third periods. Structural equation modeling supports the mediating role of the second period. This finding suggests that peer contagion in aggressive behaviors can occur quite rapidly and adds theoretical support to the use of proactive interventions within schools that curtail aggressive behaviors before they have the opportunity to spread. Implications for schools related to supervision in unstructured settings throughout the school day are discussed.     

互联网企业市场支配地位认定的理论反思与制度重构

随着互联网市场的发展,我国司法实践中适用的判断经营者市场支配地位的方案受到了严峻挑战。在互联网市场上,市场份额的计算方法受到质疑,市场份额对衡量经营者市场竞争力的判断作用已经退化。在我国对市场份额证据严格限制的实证法背景下,我国司法实践中推行的"单一市场结构方案"既不能适用于互联网市场中的垄断行为规制,也不符合我国反垄断的立法规定,是必须摈弃的一种落后观念。因应互联网市场的形成,根据我国《反垄断法》的立法宗旨和基本精神,应当在反垄断司法实践中贯彻"综合标准方案",既不简单反对可以根据市场份额推定经营者的市场支配地位,又充分考虑市场进入壁垒、市场竞争状况等其他因素对经营者市场支配地位的影响。